The principal tension in 27604 is that the June 2026 ZIP Zillow Observed Rent Index reached $1,649 per month while direct ZIP resale evidence recorded a $349,921 median sold price, down 4.1% year over year. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-price series for one specific home. The annualized-ZORI-to-median-sale-price screen is 5.65%; it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Rising asking-rent evidence and softer resale pricing point in different directions, so neither source settles the market picture alone.
Rent history through the stated Zillow endpoint supports a stable-growth description, but its pace has varied. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 3.0% over one year, 1.2% over three years, and 4.3% over five years. Thus, the recent direction confirms a longer upward path, although it has not matched the stronger five-year pace. Monthly rent changes showed 2.2% annualized variability, a relatively contained movement measure for interpreting one current index reading. The largest peak-to-trough decline was 1.3%, which also limits evidence of a severe historical retreat. Coverage was complete across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Among history-eligible ZIPs nationally, the transparent discovery ranks were 1,406 for momentum, 290 for stability, and 597 for the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate stronger relative placement, not a forecast.
The five-digit label 27604 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,480, making the current ZORI 11.4% higher. That difference should not be read as a simple rent increase: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. The two sources describe distinct housing and time universes, so their gap is useful for context but not for declaring that any particular current listing is above or below a tenant-paid median.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,438 for a studio, $1,505 for a one-bedroom, $1,649 for a two-bedroom, $2,071 for a three-bedroom, and $2,771 for a four-bedroom. They are not measured bedroom rents, advertised comparables, or evidence that a particular unit will lease at those levels. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its role here is to set the relative bedroom pattern used in the model. A reader should therefore use the ladder to frame size differences, then test actual like-for-like listings separately.
At the current ZIP asking-rent index, a 30% gross-income screen requires $65,960 annually. The ACS matched-ZCTA median household income was $70,375, placing the area-wide median above that arithmetic screen. This is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about a household’s actual budget; it simply divides annualized asking rent by the stated income share. Burden evidence adds a separate caution: 52.5% of surveyed renter households paid 30% or more of income toward rent. That statistic concerns occupied survey households, with their own income, rent, utility, and household-size circumstances. It cannot establish affordability, burden, or qualification for a specific household or unit.
Housing and vacancy data give the rent and burden screens a broader occupancy setting. The matched ZCTA had an 11.8% vacancy rate, including 834 units reported vacant for rent, while renters represented 45.2% of occupied homes. Its stock included 14,133 single-family units and 2,568 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating that the index and survey measures span more than one housing form. Vacancy is not proof that any named building has availability, concessions, or weak leasing conditions. For wider asking-rent context, Raleigh city context was $1,579, Wake County context was $1,676, and Raleigh-Cary metro context was $1,689; the ZIP index exceeds the city context but trails the county and metro contexts. Those wider figures are context only, not ZIP substitutes.
The Redfin evidence is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, so it describes for-sale transactions rather than rental transactions. Within that resale universe, 159 homes sold, median marketing time was 34 days, inventory was 185 homes, and months of supply stood at 3.5. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.05%, a signal that completed sales were, on average, close to list price rather than a rental pricing measure. Together with the lower median sale price noted above, these resale signals challenge a simple reading of rising ZORI as uniformly strengthening every housing measure. At the same time, recorded sales provide direct transaction activity rather than an absence of resale evidence. They do not provide rental comps, operating costs, or property-level economics.
Several limits should remain active when using this packet. ZORI blends rental types, ACS summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder, and Redfin aggregates recent ZIP resales; none replaces property-level evidence. The history measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations, and the resale-rent screen is not a return measure. Concrete checks should compare the specific home’s advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility treatment, availability date, concessions, and physical attributes with genuinely similar current listings. For a purchase-resale comparison, confirm the property type, sale condition, list history, and transaction details. Does the particular unit’s verified size and lease structure fit the modelled tier being used?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP asking rent was rising on Zillow’s index while the direct ZIP resale median declined. That disagreement matters because the annualized rent-to-price percentage combines separate source systems with different universes. It can flag a contrast for further review, but it cannot quantify operating costs, financing, condition, tenant turnover, or a property-level outcome.","title":"Rent and resale signals diverge"},{"body":"The one-year rent change was stronger than the three-year change but below the five-year pace, which supports continued historical growth without showing a uniformly accelerating path. Complete monthly coverage, contained variability, and a shallow maximum drawdown increase confidence that the current ZORI reading is not based on sparse history, while remaining strictly backward-looking.","title":"History favors stability over acceleration"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen sits below the matched-ZCTA median household income, yet more than half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at the stated threshold. These findings are not contradictory because the first is a benchmark using area median income and current asking rent, while burden reflects occupied households with varied incomes, rents, utilities, and household structures.","title":"Survey affordability evidence is mixed"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder applies the local HUD relative standard to the current ZIP ZORI, producing modelled estimates from studio through four-bedroom sizes. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom specific, while Zillow is an asking-rent index across rental types. Actual listing rents can differ because the model does not observe condition, lease terms, utility inclusion, availability, or concessions.","title":"Bedroom estimates are a sizing tool, not rent comps"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the asking rent, executed lease rent, amenities, condition, or concession package for a particular available home.","The ACS result comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a Census ZCTA, which is a statistical geography rather than an identical match to a USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmarks, not observed asking rents. Scaling ZORI with that ladder creates modelled estimates that require direct verification against comparable current listings.","Redfin metrics summarize recent ZIP resale activity, not rental transactions or property economics. Vacancy and renter-burden statistics also cannot prove availability, affordability, or leasing conditions for an individual unit."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences can reflect timing, housing composition, utility treatment, and the distinction between asking rents and tenant-paid survey responses.","q":"Why does the Zillow rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates calculated by scaling current ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent dataset. The estimates organize relative size differences but do not substitute for verified, like-for-like current listings.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"The history is complete across the available monthly observations, and its variability and maximum drawdown were contained relative to the longer upward path. That supports greater confidence that the current ZORI snapshot is grounded in a continuous historical series. It does not make the current value a forecast or guarantee that future rents will move similarly.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current reading?"},{"a":"It is the annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale observation. The percentage is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio for comparing the current rent index with an aggregate resale price. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or estimate of investment performance.","q":"How should the rent-to-sale-price percentage be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":931.379118},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":933.56206},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":935.731533},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":939.462922},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":946.52451},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":954.217003},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":960.857703},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":967.712081},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":967.399397},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":969.278816},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":977.249366},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":985.19564},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":985.445092},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":976.964159},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":977.040909},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":983.162113},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":988.845592},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":991.492932},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":987.234419},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":985.963629},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":993.834429},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1013.132589},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1014.418599},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1009.816135},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1006.847337},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1022.019767},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1037.176436},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1045.513305},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1049.195269},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1045.856361},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1049.189569},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1050.034188},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1054.065536},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1046.559507},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1044.608766},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1055.453953},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1071.776948},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1081.323223},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1074.446464},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1067.684526},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1068.533088},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1076.567395},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1086.461395},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1099.713891},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1105.897039},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1115.969886},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1125.599684},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1120.513584},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1117.673633},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1112.086736},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1120.116963},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1130.635125},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1138.106237},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1144.370523},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1147.735313},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1149.298626},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1153.456106},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1158.243674},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1164.988836},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1178.484256},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1188.11445},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1200.402923},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1198.31677},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1194.011042},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1190.467984},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1186.615989},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1188.945622},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1196.450262},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1212.860895},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1224.241848},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1245.417157},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1252.019557},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1253.432231},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1259.864795},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1263.510148},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1287.677773},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1307.263393},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1336.413503},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1357.651825},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1367.960039},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1373.981529},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1391.482964},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1407.344853},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1425.105002},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1447.160081},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1465.016065},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1481.847684},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1495.625678},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1510.656626},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1530.27609},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1537.188467},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1550.951427},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1565.124742},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1571.106041},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1579.83621},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1577.930487},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1588.162215},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1591.875799},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1605.735007},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1599.441261},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1602.110236},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1591.60942},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1601.951286},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1606.323868},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1607.45097},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1603.335769},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1593.141047},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1597.69982},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1597.043588},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1603.284704},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1598.374284},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1598.601409},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1594.115721},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1596.412465},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1597.926168},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1598.993851},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1587.907306},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1590.20987},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1593.859808},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1607.501826},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1602.064732},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1608.498118},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1611.352286},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1615.321788},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1616.67665},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1600.563668},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1596.605384},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1594.867574},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1604.05546},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1607.147651},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1611.926404},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1604.498975},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1611.899831},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1609.135992},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1613.029634},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1618.465043},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1627.174563},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1649.2244}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1600.563668,"endRent":1649.2244,"change":0.030402247016392936,"cagr":0.030402247016392936},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1591.60942,"endRent":1649.2244,"change":0.03619919515178549,"cagr":0.011923659647757656},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1336.413503,"endRent":1649.2244,"change":0.23406744716197325,"cagr":0.042960304434057406}},"maxDrawdown":-0.013490066798453437,"annualizedVolatility":0.022007053600424018,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}