Raleigh’s ZIP 27606 presents a current-rent discount to each supplied wider-area context while still posting a positive year-over-year move. At the current June Zillow reading, ZORI is $1,502 per month, up 1.61% from a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a record of signed leases or a bedroom-specific survey. For wider context only, the Raleigh city context rent is $1,579.45, the Wake County context rent is $1,676, and the Raleigh–Cary, NC metro context rent is $1,689. Those city, county, and metro values frame the ZIP; they do not replace its direct asking-rent observation.
That rental movement sits beside a materially softer but still transacting for-sale picture. In the direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $454,797, 13.37% below its year-earlier level. The same for-sale dataset recorded 135 homes sold, a 31-day median marketing time, inventory of 113 homes, and 2.5 months of supply. Sellers averaged 98.75% of list price, while 17.57% of sales closed above list. These are ZIP resale transactions and listing-market signals, not rental transactions. Price weakness challenges the gently rising ZORI signal, whereas the recorded sales activity means the resale reading is not simply an absence-of-transactions result.
History gives the rent side its own slower-burn tension. Through the supplied Zillow history endpoint, exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 1.61% over one year, 1.34% over three years, and 5.30% over five years. The latest one-year direction confirms continued growth and improves on the three-year pace, yet it breaks from the much faster five-year path by remaining well below it. History coverage is 100%. Rather than treating a single current index as fully settled, note that annualized month-to-month return variability measured 3.43%, meaning individual monthly readings have moved around the trend. The largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 5.51%, a separate measure of downside experienced in the observed path. National transparent discovery ranks were 1,753 for momentum, 2,161 for stability, and 2,266 for balanced history; lower ranks are stronger among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom detail is a model, not a set of measured rents. The ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder to produce modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,305 for a studio, $1,373 for one bedroom, $1,502 for two bedrooms, $1,888 for three bedrooms, and $2,523 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,750. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it supplies relative spacing for this ladder and should not be read as an observed offer. In particular, the match between the modelled two-bedroom figure and the overall ZORI does not establish a measured two-bedroom market rent.
The ACS comparison addresses occupied households, not today’s listings. In the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,432 and includes selected utilities; the current asking-rent index sits 4.88% higher. The same survey reports median household income of $78,371. Annualizing the $1,502 index creates a $60,080 gross-income screen at 30%; that is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Within the ACS renter sample, 6,407 renter households, or 52.44%, reported gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. This burden reading describes surveyed occupied renter homes and cannot demonstrate affordability, vacancy, or cost for any particular unit.
Household mix and housing stock point to a renter-heavy survey geography, but they do not identify available units. The matched ZCTA had a 12.54% housing vacancy rate and a 62.19% renter share. Its structure count includes 9,942 single-family units and 3,731 units in large multifamily structures. Vacancy is a Census housing-status measure; it is not a count of units available now, nor proof that a particular property is vacant. Likewise, a renter-heavy area does not indicate a unit’s lease terms. These ACS stock measures are useful alongside the relatively lower ZIP asking index, but their five-year survey universe differs from Zillow’s current blended asking-rent index.
The rent-versus-price screen should remain deliberately narrow. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price produces 3.96%, a cross-source screening ratio only. It combines a blended asking-rent index with a rolling-three-month median of for-sale ZIP transactions; it does not measure the economics or performance of a particular asset. The ZIP label used here is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, an important boundary limitation when a property address sits near an edge. Wider city, county, and metro figures remain context rather than direct substitutes for ZIP observations.
The packet cannot determine an advertised rent for a specific address, an actual tenant-paid rent, unit condition, included utilities, or a property’s sales comparison set. Before applying these ZIP screens to an address, concrete checks are the current advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, listing type, lease and availability date, and which utilities are included; these tests keep a listed unit separate from the ACS gross-rent definition and the HUD-scaled model. On the resale side, verify the property type, condition, closing date, comparable sale terms, and whether the address falls inside the Zillow ZIP market area versus the Census ZCTA boundary. No history, vacancy, burden, or resale metric in this packet is a forecast. Which source universe matches the question being examined: current asking rents, occupied-household survey costs, administrative standards, or direct resale activity?
","findings":[{"body":"At the current June reading, ZIP 27606 ZORI is $1,502, below the Raleigh city, Wake County, and Raleigh–Cary metro context rents. Its 1.61% annual change is positive, but the geographic comparison is context only. Because ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types, it should not be treated as a signed-lease median or a specific property quote.","title":"Rent index sits below wider context"},{"body":"Same-month history shows 1.61% annualized change over one year, 1.34% over three years, and 5.30% over five years. That pattern leaves current growth positive but far below the longer-run pace. Redfin’s $454,797 median sold price, down 13.37% year over year, challenges the rent path across a separate resale universe rather than proving that one market caused the other.","title":"Longer rent history and resale prices diverge"},{"body":"The modelled bedroom ladder of $1,305 to $2,523 scales the ZIP ZORI using local HUD bedroom relationships. These are not measured bedroom rents. ACS, meanwhile, reports a $1,432 median gross rent among occupied renter households and includes selected utilities. The $60,080 income screen is arithmetic against the current ZORI, not an underwriting, qualification, or affordability determination.","title":"Bedroom and household evidence answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS describes a renter-heavy matched ZCTA, with a 62.19% renter share and 12.54% housing vacancy. It also reports that 52.44% of renter households had gross-rent burden at or above 30% of income. Those are aggregate survey characteristics, not evidence that a particular vacant unit is rentable, affordable, or comparable to a given property. Address-level listing and sales checks remain necessary.","title":"Renter-heavy stock still requires unit checks"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is a blended asking-rent index, so shifts in rental types represented in the ZIP can affect it without identifying the asking rent, lease terms, or utility treatment of any particular unit.","ACS estimates use a matched ZCTA and a five-year occupied-household survey; their timing, geographical boundary, survey uncertainty, and gross-rent utility inclusion differ from both Zillow’s current ZIP index and a USPS delivery address.","HUD bedroom standards support relative scaling but are administrative benchmarks rather than market observations. A modelled studio through four-bedroom ladder can be unsuitable when the target property’s unit type, utilities, or advertised rent differs.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale measures reflect for-sale activity only. Median prices and sale-to-list signals are not rental comps, and the rent-to-price screen omits all property-specific cost, financing, and transaction details."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter households, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Timing, geography, household occupancy, utility treatment, and the measure itself differ, so the values are complementary rather than interchangeable.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom estimate begins with the overall ZIP ZORI and applies the relative spacing in the local HUD ladder. It is therefore a modelled monthly estimate, not a measured rent collected from studio, one-, two-, three-, or four-bedroom listings. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard, not asking-rent evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"The 3.96% calculation annualizes the ZIP ZORI and divides it by the direct Redfin median sold price. It joins two distinct source universes: asking-rent index data and rolling-three-month for-sale transactions. It omits property-specific operating costs, financing, ownership terms, and unit matching, so it is only a cross-source screening ratio.","q":"What does the rent-versus-price screening ratio represent?"},{"a":"No. Vacancy and burden describe aggregate ACS conditions rather than an address. A property review should confirm advertised rent, bedrooms, utility inclusion, availability, lease terms, ZIP and ZCTA boundary treatment, property type, condition, and relevant sale-comparison details. Neither an aggregate vacancy rate nor a burden share proves availability or affordability for that unit.","q":"Can vacancy or rent burden establish conditions for a particular address?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":860.208082},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":869.707422},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":875.520084},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":863.095395},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":862.88154},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":862.647526},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":874.578717},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":875.737231},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":888.229885},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":893.511865},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":898.160069},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":900.910779},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":895.828649},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":889.789773},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":890.862471},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":913.177659},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":910.744981},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":919.548863},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":918.502277},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":937.693511},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":939.21296},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":938.206806},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":955.432747},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":961.43418},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":971.527475},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":975.107088},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":968.66084},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":975.379658},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":975.06845},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":983.563182},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":979.359188},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":972.940811},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":979.456768},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":997.471255},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":998.632628},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1010.758683},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1012.779692},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1018.421775},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1014.143754},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1012.176787},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1024.062486},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1024.698267},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1037.818292},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1046.010623},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1051.336436},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1051.160223},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1056.215276},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1059.855479},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1071.914062},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1085.607194},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1112.071286},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1126.931104},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1113.140866},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1081.719607},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1064.879892},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1070.694797},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1073.95298},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1085.007442},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1086.067666},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1100.339591},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1108.367631},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1116.504188},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1106.632334},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1117.568837},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1119.824329},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1141.740618},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1149.702688},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1160.644082},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1177.035816},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1184.54091},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1200.04219},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1229.640656},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1263.369037},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1284.954846},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1299.326671},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1293.897248},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1318.972171},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1329.174754},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1366.156821},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1380.757581},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1388.975357},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1413.810185},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1425.724566},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1427.320657},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1394.133263},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1385.924876},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1393.789116},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1420.084428},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1426.341623},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1437.384598},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1438.641447},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1443.453892},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1474.203874},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1468.127441},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1470.696128},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1429.765947},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1429.026401},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1437.458375},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1445.492856},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1461.89098},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1455.556578},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1459.458603},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1455.04079},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1460.003667},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1455.326616},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1446.310681},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1437.018619},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1458.496276},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1482.332477},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1492.405175},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1490.44142},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1469.437101},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1475.536014},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1477.671411},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1486.106104},{"period"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