ZIP 27613 opens with a cross-market tension: its June 2026 Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,385, down 1.4% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, Redfin’s direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation reported a $599,864 median sold price, 0.9% below its prior-year level. Resale activity was comparatively quick, with 17 days on market and 158 homes sold; inventory increased year over year, while 2.3 months of supply and a 99.4% average sale-to-list ratio describe for-sale conditions. The 2.77% annualized ZORI-to-price screening ratio is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The backward-looking rent record supports the supplied cooling classification rather than a renewed growth signal. The exact same-month one-year rent change was negative 1.4% annualized, the three-year change was negative 0.9% annualized, and the five-year change remained positive 3.0% annualized. Thus, the recent direction confirms the softer three-year path but breaks from the longer five-year expansion. History coverage reached 99.1%, based on 113 observations and 111 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.5% suggests the index has generally moved in relatively contained increments, but the separate 4.1% maximum drawdown shows that meaningful declines have occurred. That combination supports moderate confidence in the current snapshot, not certainty. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,708 for momentum, 782 for stability, and 2,253 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks place higher.
The rent figures answer different questions and should not be merged. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,628 with a $69 margin of error. That survey represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current asking-rent index, so the higher ACS figure is not a direct contradiction of the current ZIP asking-rent reading. ACS also reported median household income of $123,966, with a $10,498 margin of error; it is a household survey measure rather than a tenant-income figure for any listed home.
The bedroom ladder is deliberately modelled, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,210 for a studio, $1,266 for one bedroom, $1,385 for two bedrooms, $1,735 for three bedrooms, and $2,316 for four bedrooms. These figures express relative bedroom sizing from HUD standards; they do not establish what an available unit of that size is actually asking. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,740, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The coincidence between the modelled two-bedroom estimate and the ZIP index follows the scaling method, not a measurement of two-bedroom market transactions.
A simple income screen creates another contrast without establishing renter eligibility. At the current ZORI, annual income of $55,400 is required for rent to equal 30% of gross income. This is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the current asking-rent-to-median-household-income comparison is 13.4%. Separately, ACS found that 2,481 of 5,738 renter households, or 43.2%, paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Because that burden measure uses occupied renter households, survey income, and gross rent with selected utilities, it cannot prove affordability, burden, or qualification for a particular available unit. It does show that the ZIP’s household-level burden measure remains material despite the current asking-rent index sitting below ACS median gross rent.
The ACS ZCTA housing-stock picture helps frame, but not resolve, availability. It counted 20,318 housing units, of which 18,982 were occupied and 1,336 were vacant, implying a 6.6% vacancy rate. The stock included 15,058 single-family units and 1,919 units in larger multifamily structures. These are survey-based unit counts, not an active rental listing inventory and not a count of immediately leasable homes. In particular, a vacant unit may be for rent, sale, seasonal use, repair, or another status; vacancy cannot be used as proof that a specific unit is available or that it will have a particular lease price.
Wider geography provides context but not a substitute rent comparable. The Raleigh city-context rent was $1,579, the Wake County-context rent was $1,676, and the Raleigh-Cary, NC metro-context rent was $1,689; each named value has its respective city, county, or metro scope rather than ZIP scope. Those broader figures all sit above the ZIP’s current Zillow asking-rent index, consistent with the ZIP’s lower current reading in this packet. The city, county, and metro context measures nevertheless cover broader populations and housing mixes. They should not be treated as direct evidence about an individual 27613 property, its bedroom mix, its utilities, or its current advertised rent.
Redfin’s resale evidence both confirms and challenges the rental screen. Short marketing time, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list results close to list confirm that the direct ZIP for-sale market was moving with relatively firm transaction signals, even while asking-rent history was cooling. At the same time, the modest decline in median sold price and the negative recent ZORI changes caution against treating either source as a forward-looking conclusion. Redfin records resale transactions, not rental transactions, and its sold price, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals remain in the for-sale universe. Property-level interpretation requires checking the live advertised rent and date, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease term, concessions, condition, availability, and the applicable ZIP-versus-ZCTA and HUD geography before deciding whether the current rent snapshot fits the specific unit.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index was $1,385 in June 2026, with negative one-year and three-year exact same-month annualized changes but a positive five-year change. The pattern indicates recent cooling relative to the longer path. Monthly-return variability was modest, although the recorded maximum drawdown means a single current index reading still warrants measured confidence.","title":"Cooling rent path with relatively contained movement"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen implies $55,400 of annual income at the current ZORI, while ACS reported that 43.2% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. The first is a simple rent-to-income calculation; the second is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter households that includes gross-rent treatment. Neither establishes qualification or burden for a particular unit.","title":"Affordability screen and renter burden are different measures"},{"body":"The matched ACS ZCTA recorded 20,318 housing units and a 6.6% vacancy rate, with the largest reported structure category being single-family units. Those counts describe survey-based stock and occupancy, not a current listing feed. A vacant unit can have multiple uses or statuses, so the data do not demonstrate that any specific home is available to rent.","title":"Housing stock does not equal live rental availability"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed short marketing time, 2.3 months of supply, and sale-to-list results close to list, all within the for-sale universe. Those signals sit beside a cooling Zillow rent history and a slightly lower year-over-year sold price. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen and cannot describe property-level economics.","title":"Resale liquidity contrasts with cooling rental history"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the advertised price, concession structure, bedroom count, utility package, or condition of a specific available property.","ACS rent, income, burden, occupancy, and vacancy measures come from a matched ZCTA five-year survey with margins of error; the statistical area is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","The reported vacancy rate and housing-stock counts do not identify current rental listings or prove a unit is available, rentable, competitively priced, or suitable for a particular household.","Redfin’s sale-price, supply, marketing-time, and sale-to-list observations concern resale transactions only. Combining them with asking-rent data creates a screening comparison, not an estimate of ownership costs or returns."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes and timing. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference between them does not establish an error, a discount, or a property-specific rent gap.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent higher than the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, active listings, lease transactions, or evidence that a currently available unit of a given size will rent at that amount.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is a mathematical screen: annualized current ZORI divided by 30% produces the displayed income amount. It is not lending guidance, rental advice, a leasing standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability can differ because rent, utilities, household income, lease terms, and concessions can all differ by property.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, linking two distinct source universes for a broad cross-source screen. It is not a cap rate, yield, net return, expected return, or property-level financial result because it excludes expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, vacancies, repairs, and unit-specific rents.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs 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