A $1,579 current asking-rent index and a $128,834 median household income can suggest room in a simple income screen, yet the matched survey reports 2,108 of 3,992 renter households, or 52.8%, paying at least 30% of income toward rent. The arithmetic screen puts the annual income associated with the current monthly reading at $63,160. That contrast is this ZIP’s central measured tension: a ZIP-wide current asking-rent level looks modest relative to the area’s median income, while a large surveyed portion of occupied renter homes reports cost burden. The screen is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it does not show whether any individual advertised unit is affordable or burdensome.
Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI for this ZIP is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a survey median for occupied homes. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey instead places median gross rent at $1,647, including selected utilities, so the asking-rent index is 4.1% lower on that cross-source comparison. The five-digit label 27614 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Those scope differences help explain why the current asking-rent snapshot, household-income statistic, and burden measure should not be treated as interchangeable measures of the same renters or leases.
The rent-history path is positive but materially slower than its earlier pace. Exact same-month annualized change was 1.31% over the one-year period, 1.32% over the three-year period, and 2.97% over the five-year period. Thus, the recent direction confirms continued asking-rent growth, but it breaks from the faster longer path rather than extending it. The history has 100% coverage, supporting use of the series as a complete backward-looking record for its observed span. Still, annualized monthly-return variability of 3.51% means one current rent reading deserves measured confidence rather than certainty. A 3.68% maximum drawdown also shows that the index has experienced declines within its longer trajectory. Transparent national discovery ranks are 1,835 for momentum, 2,252 for stability, and 2,379 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher among history-eligible ZIPs. None of these backward-looking measurements is a forecast or investment recommendation.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimates of $1,375 for a studio, $1,443 for one bedroom, $1,579 for two bedrooms, $1,978 for three bedrooms, and $2,649 for four bedrooms. This shape reflects the local HUD ladder, not a direct sample of currently advertised units in each bedroom category. FY2026 HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards used to construct that ladder; they are not asking rents and should not be substituted for Zillow’s observed asking-rent index. The estimates are most useful for checking whether a specific listing’s bedroom count and advertised price appear broadly consistent with the ZIP-level model, not for establishing a market-clearing rent.
The housing-stock evidence adds context for why ZIP averages may conceal substantial variation. The ZCTA contains 15,065 housing units, with renters comprising 29.0% of occupied homes. Its 8.75% vacancy rate includes 585 units classified as vacant for rent, but neither figure establishes availability, condition, or pricing for a particular home. Single-family structures account for 11,061 units, while larger multifamily buildings account for 1,748, indicating that the stock composition is not limited to one rental format. For wider context, the Raleigh city context has an essentially matching asking-rent index, Wake County context rent is $1,676, and Raleigh-Cary, NC metro context rent is $1,689; these city, county, and metro values are comparison scopes rather than ZIP results. The ZIP’s lower current index versus county and metro context does not identify the types, locations, or lease terms causing that difference.
Redfin provides a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, describing for-sale transactions rather than rental transactions. Its median sold price was $629,858, down 7.51% year over year, across 180 homes sold. Marketing time was 32 days, inventory was 148 homes and 7.27% lower year over year, and months of supply stood at 2.5. Sale-to-list evidence was mixed rather than uniformly aggressive: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.77%, while 23.45% of sales closed above list price. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental comparables or evidence about lease demand. In particular, the sold-price decline can coexist with a rising asking-rent index because the Redfin and Zillow measures capture different markets and transaction types.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 3.01% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio: it does not measure expenses, financing, taxes, property condition, or a property’s realized economics. The main decision tension is that asking rent has continued to rise modestly on one-year and three-year history while the direct ZIP resale median moved lower over the same broad comparison period. That resale movement challenges any simple inference that positive rent history necessarily aligns with resale-price strength. At the same time, the current asking-rent index below the ACS gross-rent median and the reported burden share caution against using a ZIP-wide income screen as proof of broad renter ease.
The evidence supports a disciplined separation of snapshots, histories, surveys, standards, and resale observations. ZORI cannot reveal concessions, utilities, lease duration, furnished status, renovation level, or the actual availability of a named unit. ACS burden and vacancy measures are population-level survey results, not proof about a specific renter or property. Before relying on the modelled ladder, verify the advertised bedroom count, included utilities, availability date, concessions, and comparable current asking listings. Before relying on the resale block, verify the property’s sale date, condition, list-price changes, transaction terms, and the comparability of nearby recent sales. Do those property-level checks support the same conclusion as the ZIP-level rent, affordability, and resale signals, or do they expose a mismatch?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index produces a comparatively modest arithmetic income screen relative to the area’s median household income, but the ACS survey shows that more than half of renter households report spending at least 30% of income on rent. This is a meaningful tension, not a contradiction: current asking rents, occupied-home gross rents, and household burden are different measures with different populations and timing.","title":"Affordability signals conflict across evidence universes"},{"body":"One-year and three-year asking-rent growth were nearly identical and positive, while the five-year rate was notably higher. That pattern indicates continued growth without the faster pace embedded in the longer historical record. Complete history coverage improves confidence that the record is not missing observed periods, but measured variability and drawdown still limit confidence in any single current reading.","title":"Rent growth persists, but the longer trend has slowed"},{"body":"The bedroom estimates use the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index scaled by the local HUD bedroom structure. They provide a consistent internal framework for comparing studio through four-bedroom levels, but they do not establish measured asking rents for each bedroom type. HUD standards are administrative reference amounts and should not be treated as direct rental-market quotes.","title":"Bedroom rents are a modelled ladder, not direct observations"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price year over year alongside moderate marketing time, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list results below full list price on average. That evidence does not negate positive asking-rent history, but it does challenge any assumption that rent momentum and resale pricing are moving in lockstep. The rent-price calculation remains only a cross-source screen.","title":"Resale pricing complicates the rent-only view"}],"risks":["The burden statistic is based on a five-year ACS survey of occupied renter homes, so it cannot identify current lease terms, concessions, utility treatment, or affordability for any specific available unit.","Although the Zillow history has complete observed coverage, its measured variability and drawdown show that a current asking-rent index can move meaningfully over time and should not be read as a fixed market level.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit both the ZIP-wide ZORI and the HUD ladder assumptions, making them unsuitable substitutes for direct bedroom-specific asking-rent listings or signed lease evidence.","Redfin resale metrics describe completed for-sale activity in a rolling ZIP observation; they do not measure rental transactions, operating costs, property condition, or the economics of a particular purchase."],"qa":[{"a":"The income screen divides the current Zillow asking-rent index into an annual income threshold using a 30% rule. The burden result comes from ACS survey respondents in occupied renter homes and reflects their reported gross-rent burden. They differ in timing, population, rent definition, included utilities, household composition, and the fact that one is arithmetic while the other is a survey measure.","q":"Why does the income screen look more favorable than the renter-burden result?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. Zillow ZORI itself is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, while HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. A real listing may differ because of condition, utilities, furnishing, lease terms, concessions, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual measured rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"The record shows positive one-year, three-year, and five-year annualized rent changes, with recent growth slower than the five-year path. Complete coverage supports confidence that the observed history is not selectively missing periods. However, monthly-return variability and the historical maximum drawdown show that the current index is a snapshot within a changing series, not a stable permanent benchmark.","q":"What does the historical rent record say about confidence in the current snapshot?"},{"a":"Use Redfin as direct ZIP-level evidence about the for-sale market only: sold prices, transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Compare it cautiously with Zillow asking-rent information to identify cross-market tension, not to infer rental transactions or property economics. For a specific property, verify sale comparables, condition, list history, and current rental terms separately.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1324.978127},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1363.546285},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1379.53282},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1398.371584},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1396.277762},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1416.358536},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1423.382072},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1459.733545},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1501.775452},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1513.252783},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1496.096161},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1488.703167},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1498.117804},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1507.475719},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1508.046103},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1511.737744},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1543.643586},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1551.132696},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1558.099344},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1525.561332},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1503.648982},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1504.448073},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1532.416261},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1554.482515},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1530.82498},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1517.820846},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1514.946188},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1527.046097},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1516.519745},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1513.000528},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1500.798742},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1530.585148},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1543.435073},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1566.135982},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1550.253306},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1540.738272},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1551.060911},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1556.412127},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1556.37873},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1550.880314},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1549.302368},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1555.742736},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1550.70669},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1551.527463},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1543.29505},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1555.132376},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1556.428411},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1550.770068},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1549.992983},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1558.055208},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1563.744075},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1565.343124},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1569.446534},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1568.073648},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1579.925504},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1573.640632},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1580.566175},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1564.004407},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1569.148392},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1577.558104},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1581.276606},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1578.527669}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1558.055208,"endRent":1578.527669,"change":0.013139753260912768,"cagr":0.013139753260912768},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1517.820846,"endRent":1578.527669,"change":0.039996039822475904,"cagr":0.013158117827807958},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1363.546285,"endRent":1578.527669,"change":0.1576634298116255,"cagr":0.029713633456363686}},"maxDrawdown":-0.036775961828528936,"annualizedVolatility":0.03508644048790834,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}