Current Zillow ZORI for 27701 is $1,744 per month, up 3.1% from the same month a year earlier. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-by-lease average or a measure of occupied-home rents. The 27701 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider Zillow context only, the City of Durham rent is $1,699.68, Durham County’s context rent is $1,690, and the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro context rent is $1,691. The ZIP index therefore sits somewhat above each broader benchmark, without showing how any individual property is priced.
The asking-rent signal and the household survey describe meaningfully different universes. The matched ACS five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,351, placing the current asking-rent index 29.1% higher. ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks asking rents; the gap is not evidence that a particular occupied unit would reset to the current index. Annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index and applying the 30% screen produces required household income of $69,760, essentially equal to the ZCTA median household income of $69,740. That screen is arithmetic only, not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or proof of what any household can pay.
Bedroom detail should be handled as a model, not as a set of observed ZIP rent quotes. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,444 for a studio, then $1,536, $1,744, $2,158, and $2,576 across progressively larger bedroom categories. These estimates use the local HUD FMR/SAFMR relationship to preserve a bedroom gradient around the ZIP index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent; it does not convert the modelled ladder into measured rents, rental comparables, or expected lease terms. Actual advertised rents can differ by unit condition, utilities, concessions, availability, and lease structure.
The ZCTA’s renter-heavy housing base gives the current asking-rent signal a substantial renter context, but not a unit-level vacancy conclusion. ACS counts 14,073 housing units and 8,352 renter-occupied homes, for a renter share of 69.8%. It also identifies 2,099 vacant units, an aggregate vacancy rate of 14.9%, including 694 units reported vacant for rent. The housing stock includes both detached homes and large multifamily structures, so the ZIP index blends rent conditions across different forms of housing. These vacancy figures are survey-based aggregate classifications; they cannot establish whether a particular building has availability, whether a specific unit is rentable, or whether a landlord is offering concessions.
Rent burden adds a second affordability lens that should not be conflated with the asking-rent index. In the ACS occupied-renter universe, 39.0% of renter households pay at least the burden threshold for gross rent. That rate is below the wider City of Durham and Durham County context burden shares, but broader-place comparisons do not override the ZIP survey’s different income, household, and housing mix. The burden result is backward-looking and includes occupied households rather than today’s listings. It also carries survey uncertainty, as do the ZCTA’s renter counts, income, and median gross-rent estimates. Together, the near match between the arithmetic income screen and median income, plus the burden share, supports caution in treating a single current asking-rent snapshot as universally attainable.
The rent history is mixed rather than uniformly accelerating. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualize to 3.1% over one year, 1.7% over three years, and 5.1% over five years. Recent growth remains positive, so it does not reverse the longer upward path, but it is slower than the five-year pace and closer to the subdued medium-term result. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.2%, meaning month-to-month rent-index movement has been present even in a generally rising history and should temper confidence in one current reading. Separately, the peak-to-trough maximum drawdown reached 3.4%, showing that prior declines occurred. Coverage is 100% across 102 observations and 101 consecutive returns. Transparent national history-eligible ZIP discovery ranks are 1,279 for momentum, 1,911 for stability, and 1,670 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence introduces a notable cross-market tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $534,879, up 6.4% year over year, alongside 81 homes sold and a median 31 days on market. Inventory stands at 139 homes and months of supply at 5.2, while the average sale-to-list ratio is 97.9% and 20.3% of sales closed above list. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The stronger resale price change contrasts with the slower current rent-growth pace and the rent-to-income pressure indicated by the ZIP screen; meanwhile, supply and below-list average execution complicate any simple scarcity reading. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.91%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The evidence is useful for framing questions, not for assigning economics to a specific home. ZORI does not identify the advertised rent, concessions, included utilities, bedroom count, condition, or lease term for a listing. ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; none substitutes for direct property documentation. A property-level review should verify the current asking rent and effective rent after concessions, bedroom configuration, utility responsibility, availability date, comparable active listings, recent nearby rental leases where available, and the specific home’s sale and listing history. The unresolved question is whether the exact home’s documented rent terms and condition support a result materially different from the broad ZIP signals.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $1,744, while ACS median gross rent is $1,351. The difference is decision-relevant, but it does not describe the same rental universe. ZORI reflects blended asking-rent conditions, whereas ACS measures occupied renter homes over a multiyear survey period and includes selected utilities. Treat the gap as a source-scope distinction rather than a direct estimate of renewal or lease-reset risk.","title":"Asking rents exceed the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to place the current ZIP asking-rent index at 30% of household income is $69,760, almost identical to the ZCTA median household income of $69,740. ACS also shows that 39.0% of occupied renter households meet the gross-rent burden threshold. Neither figure qualifies an applicant or proves affordability for a particular home, but together they narrow the margin for a broad affordability interpretation.","title":"Income screen is tight, while burden remains material"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI gain is positive, but the five-year annualized pace is faster than the recent result. Monthly index movement has not been negligible, and the historical drawdown confirms that the ZIP has experienced prior reversals. Complete observation coverage supports confidence in the reported historical calculation, yet the variability and mixed discovery ranks argue against treating one current ZORI reading as a stable endpoint.","title":"Rent history remains positive but has moderated"},{"body":"Redfin reports rising ZIP sale prices, but its resale indicators are not rental transactions. Supply, sale-to-list outcomes, sales volume, and marketing time describe the for-sale market only. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure is useful solely as a cross-source screen. It cannot account for operating costs, financing, property taxes, vacancy at a specific building, maintenance, or the terms of any individual lease.","title":"Resale strength does not translate directly into rental economics"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index blends rental types and asking conditions, so it may not match the effective rent, concessions, utilities, lease term, or availability of the particular unit being evaluated.","ACS figures are multiyear survey estimates for occupied homes and carry sampling uncertainty. They should not be used to infer a current tenant’s income, burden, rent payment, or renewal outcome.","The bedroom figures are HUD-scaled modelled estimates rather than measured ZIP bedroom rents. A property with unusual size, utility treatment, amenities, condition, or lease structure can depart materially from them.","Redfin resale data can confirm or challenge broad market tension, but it cannot establish rental demand, property operating economics, future appreciation, unit vacancy, or a transaction-level return for a rental home."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different populations and methods. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a multiyear survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The difference can reflect timing, occupancy status, utility treatment, and composition, rather than a direct increase required for every existing lease.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent dataset. The estimates provide a transparent relative bedroom framework, but they should not be treated as quoted rents, lease comparables, or evidence of actual availability.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 27701?"},{"a":"The history shows a positive recent direction but a slower pace than the longer five-year path. Complete historical coverage makes the calculation more dependable, yet monthly variability and a recorded drawdown show that the index has moved in both directions. The current ZORI is therefore a useful snapshot, but not a stable prediction or a guarantee of rent movement.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent reading?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining separate rent and resale sources into a screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. It excludes property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, concessions, and the actual rent achievable at a particular home.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screen be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1152.305194},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1163.171353},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1184.844873},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1163.120407},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1160.289008},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1165.697765},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1171.48845},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1185.95615},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1199.443798},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1204.261672},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1205.430244},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1213.321589},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1232.756904},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1218.331181},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1213.863274},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1234.772826},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1252.680738},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1256.89128},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1256.440133},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1245.590492},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1240.131183},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1245.567673},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1248.813517},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1253.067929},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1235.070947},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1242.68166},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1272.409585},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1273.338037},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1268.249532},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1248.592333},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1245.503824},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1250.532694},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1269.578083},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1268.868348},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1272.132558},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1278.446355},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1282.193937},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1295.279529},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1290.150514},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1310.400933},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1319.478567},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1362.121155},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1392.004785},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1432.36336},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1457.540085},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1488.651307},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1507.952504},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1536.561618},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1545.489808},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1548.912374},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1548.231404},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1574.135639},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1599.179433},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1610.512043},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1609.164383},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1608.529434},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1609.26787},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1617.330316},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1628.407686},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1622.340424},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1642.864018},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1637.483676},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1663.380708},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1653.03074},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1665.441366},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1657.665899},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1656.848489},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1647.35015},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1639.407878},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1631.21368},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1616.808684},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1608.921338},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1610.12775},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1639.870343},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1662.563738},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1671.607682},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1661.821376},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1666.318349},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1669.089386},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1675.074432},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1680.814162},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1680.657173},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1699.676393},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1703.807556},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1703.68569},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1683.521285},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1675.360171},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1678.416463},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1679.782428},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1692.047876},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1698.612659},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1706.203012},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1713.058449},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1722.275987},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1719.182562},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1727.331077},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1729.554536},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1738.321265},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1735.826495},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1738.247744},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1746.704199},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1744.351796}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":102,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1692.047876,"endRent":1744.351796,"change":0.030911607609854563,"cagr":0.030911607609854563},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1657.665899,"endRent":1744.351796,"change":0.05229394961451139,"cagr":0.017135996864610092},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1362.121155,"endRent":1744.351796,"change":0.2806142754606875,"cagr":0.05071194063363049}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03393696659267431,"annualizedVolatility":0.03193667259148255,"consecutiveReturnCount":101}}