ZIP 27704 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $1,775 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote. Against wider context only, the City of Durham asking-rent figure is $1,699.68, the Durham County figure is $1,690, and the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro figure is $1,691; none is a substitute ZIP estimate. The ZIP’s asking-rent level therefore sits above each broader benchmark. A $71,000 annual income is the arithmetic result of applying a 30% screen to ZORI, versus a ZCTA ACS median household income of $69,668. That produces a 30.6% asking-rent-to-income screen, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about any household’s actual budget.
The same-month rent record presents stable growth rather than a straight-line rise. The one-year change was 3.47%, the three-year annualized change was 2.84%, and the five-year annualized change was 4.81%. Recent direction confirms the longer positive path because all three measures are positive, although the one-year pace remains below the faster five-year result. Monthly history has complete coverage. Variability, measured as annualized monthly-return volatility, was 2.56%, which supports somewhat more confidence in the current ZORI snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Still, the history’s maximum drawdown was 3.33%, showing that rent index declines have occurred. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 930 for momentum, 805 for stability, and 534 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank indicates a higher position. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The large gap between sources should not be read as a contradiction without regard to their universes. The ACS 2024 five-year estimate reports median gross rent of $1,382, with a $71 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow’s current asking index is 128.4% of that ACS median, a difference consistent with unlike populations and rent concepts rather than a direct estimate of lease renewal terms. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,711. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The bedroom ladder shown here is therefore modelled: scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,470 for a studio, $1,563 for one bedroom, $1,775 for two bedrooms, $2,196 for three bedrooms, and $2,622 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
ACS provides a separate affordability and stock lens for the matched ZCTA. Of 6,100 renter-occupied homes, 2,922 households were estimated to spend at least 30% of income on gross rent, a 47.9% burden share. Gross rent includes selected utilities, so this burden statistic cannot be equated to the ZORI screen. It also cannot prove that a particular available unit is affordable or burdensome. The housing stock totals 16,578 units, including separately identified single-family and large-multifamily categories. There were 1,055 vacant units, producing a 6.4% vacancy rate. This is an all-housing ACS vacancy measure, not a current count of rentable listings, lease concessions, or unit-level availability.
Scope discipline is especially important in comparing these figures. The City of Durham values are citywide context, Durham County values are county context, and Durham-Chapel Hill values are metro context; each can frame the ZIP result but cannot replace it. The ZIP’s lower ACS gross-rent level and higher current ZORI also reflect different measurement populations and timing, rather than a single rent trend that can be transferred across geographies. Likewise, renter share, vacancy, median income, and burden statistics describe aggregate ZCTA conditions. They establish useful context for the rent screen, but they do not identify the mix, quality, utility treatment, or terms of a specific rental listing.
Redfin supplies a different and direct ZIP evidence universe: a rolling-three-month for-sale/resale observation, not rental transactions. It reported a $308,430 median sold price, down 6.53% year over year, alongside 157 homes sold and 33 median days on market. Inventory stood at 146 homes and was up 24.97%. The 2.8 months of supply describes the amount of for-sale inventory relative to the current sales pace, signaling a market with less than a fully exhausted listing base; it is not rental vacancy. Sale-to-list evidence also leaned below list-price conditions: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.3%, while 9.16% of sales closed above list. These resale measures must remain in the for-sale market rather than being treated as rental comparables or property economics.
Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price produces a 6.91% cross-source screening ratio. That arithmetic ratio is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or evidence of property-level cash flow. Its main use here is to place a current asking-rent index beside a ZIP resale-price observation. The tension is clear: the rent history remains positive and the latest asking index exceeds the broader rent contexts, while Redfin records a lower median sold price, rising inventory, and below-list sale-to-list signals. Resale evidence therefore challenges any simple reading that rent growth alone describes all current housing-market conditions. Conversely, it does not disprove the rent series because the two datasets observe different transactions, units, and timing.
Important limits remain before applying this ZIP summary to a property. Check contemporaneous asking rents for genuinely comparable bedroom counts, property types, conditions, lease lengths, concessions, and included utilities. Verify whether an address falls within the relevant delivery area as well as the statistical geography, because the ZCTA match is not a USPS boundary. For a prospective sale comparison, inspect recent ZIP listing and sale records for property characteristics, list-price changes, marketing exposure, and transaction status rather than relying on the median alone. Confirm the bedroom count used in the modelled ladder and distinguish any administrative HUD standard from an owner’s actual asking price. The central unresolved question is whether a specific home’s current terms match the broad indicators summarized here.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI for ZIP 27704 is above the City of Durham, Durham County, and Durham-Chapel Hill metro context rent figures. This is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, however, not a direct reading of signed leases or a representative rent for each property type. The comparison is useful for scale, not for substituting broader geographies for the ZIP.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds wider context"},{"body":"One-year, three-year, and five-year same-month rent changes were all positive. The current pace is stronger than the three-year annualized result but slower than the five-year result. Low measured variability improves confidence that the current index is not merely a sharp monthly swing, while the recorded drawdown still establishes that prior declines occurred.","title":"Positive rent history has been comparatively stable"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities, Zillow ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across rental types, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The ZIP bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZORI. None of those modelled values should be treated as measured rents for actual available units.","title":"Gross rent, asking rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record shows a lower year-over-year median sold price, more inventory, and average sales below list, even as Zillow’s rent history remains positive. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It does not incorporate property-specific costs, cash flow, or transaction differences between rental and resale markets.","title":"Resale signals create a cross-market tension"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, concessions, utilities, condition, or lease structure of an individual available home.","ACS ZCTA estimates describe surveyed occupied homes over five years and carry sampling uncertainty; they should not be treated as current lease quotes, applicant profiles, or evidence about a particular unit.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the local HUD structure and the ZIP ZORI level. It is not observed bedroom-rent data and may differ from contemporary listings with unusual features or terms.","Redfin resale observations concern homes offered and sold in the for-sale market. Price, supply, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rental demand, unit economics, or a future resale outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, sampled households, utility treatment, and rent concepts make a gap between them informative but not directly contradictory.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates. They scale the ZIP Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, which is an administrative FMR or SAFMR standard. They should be used only to show a consistent bedroom-size relationship and not as measured asking rents, signed rents, or listing comparables.","q":"Are the bedroom-level rents observed in ZIP 27704?"},{"a":"It does not directly describe rental transactions. Redfin provides a rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation covering sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Its tension with the rent evidence is useful context, but it cannot confirm rent levels, rental vacancy, lease terms, or property-specific rental economics.","q":"What does the Redfin section say about the rental market?"},{"a":"A property review should compare current asks with truly similar bedrooms, property type, condition, utilities, concessions, and lease length. It should also confirm geography, current listing status, recent sale evidence, list-price changes, and transaction characteristics. Those checks are necessary because ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, and resale indicators are broad measures rather than address-level facts.","q":"What property-level items remain necessary to check?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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