The five-digit label 27707 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a statistical area, however, and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,430 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for any one available dwelling. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,431 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. The near match is useful as a cross-check, but it does not make the series interchangeable: one is an asking-rent index and the other is a survey median for occupied homes. Neither figure identifies a specific property's current terms.
The immediate signal is cooling, not a projection: the exact same-month ZORI change was -1.62% over one year and -0.87% annualized over three years, after a +2.58% annualized five-year increase. Thus, recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path. The history has 117 direct Zillow ZIP observations and 100% stated coverage through June 2026, supporting an internally complete backward-looking comparison. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.81%, and maximum drawdown was -5.00%; those readings mean one current index value should carry measured but not absolute precision. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,729 for momentum, 1,262 for stability, and 2,505 for the balanced score; lower ranks are higher. These are descriptive historical measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The supplied FY2026 local HUD ladder translates the ZIP-wide ZORI into modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents, of $1,184 for a studio, $1,260 for one bedroom, $1,430 for two bedrooms, $1,769 for three bedrooms, and $2,112 for four bedrooms. This scaling preserves local HUD bedroom proportions while anchoring the level to the ZIP index; it does not observe rents separately by bedroom count or control for property condition, lease terms, or included utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so its role here is the ladder used for modelling, not confirmation that any listed unit will command the estimate. The spread reflects bedroom scaling, not a measured within-ZIP price schedule.
An arithmetic screen at 30% of income turns the $1,430 monthly ZORI into $57,200 of annual income required. It is not affordability advice, a prediction of household finances, or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA's median household income is $74,406, and the supplied asking-rent-to-income measure is 23.1%, but that broad household-income statistic is not a renter-only income distribution and does not show any individual household's capacity. ACS separately reports that 46.4% of renter households, or 5,306 of 11,433, spend at least 30% of income on gross rent. Because ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and describes occupied renter homes, that burden evidence cannot prove the burden, payment, or utility arrangement of a particular listing.
The ACS ZCTA housing snapshot contains 23,657 units. Its stock includes 13,371 single-family units and 2,700 units in large multifamily structures, while renter-occupied homes make up 52.3% of occupied homes. The overall vacancy rate is 7.6%, with 717 units classified vacant for rent. These are area-level counts and shares across the survey's housing universe, not a current inventory count of available units or evidence about vacancy at an individual building. In particular, the for-rent category does not disclose asking price, condition, concessions, bedroom count, or whether a vacant unit is suitable for a given search. The information establishes stock mix and vacancy context, not unit availability.
Broader benchmarks place the ZIP's current index below each named context, but they remain wider-context comparisons only. The Durham city context rent is $1,699.68, the Durham County context rent is $1,690, and the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro context rent is $1,691; each has city, county, or metro scope, respectively, rather than ZIP scope. These contextual values cannot substitute for the ZIP index or establish a price difference for a particular property. Geography, source universe, and rental definition can differ across the comparisons, so the figures are best read as surrounding benchmarks rather than as interchangeable local observations.
Several limits constrain interpretation. ZORI supplies an index rather than listing-level data; ACS is a multiyear survey with a different occupied-home universe; HUD is a program standard; and the historical record reports what occurred through its endpoint only. Property-level comparison depends on verifying the advertised rent, bedroom count and layout, address, lease length, concessions, deposits and fees, included utilities, availability date, and whether the quote concerns a new lease, renewal, or another arrangement. Such facts can change the relevant payment even when an area index is unchanged. Given the cooling history, close ACS cross-check, and broader-context gap, which listing-specific terms are actually documented for the unit being evaluated?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP's one-year and three-year same-month ZORI changes are negative, while the five-year measure remains positive. Full stated historical coverage strengthens the internal comparison, but return variability and a recorded drawdown mean the current index should be read as a point in a moving series. The discovery ranks describe relative historical patterns only; they do not predict rent direction.","title":"Recent cooling breaks the longer positive run"},{"body":"ZORI and ACS happen to be nearly equal here, but they answer different questions. Zillow tracks a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS reports median gross rent among occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. HUD's role is different again: its bedroom-specific administrative ladder scales the ZIP index into modelled estimates. None of these series establishes the rent, utility package, or condition of a particular unit.","title":"Close source readings still represent different universes"},{"body":"The income screen converts the current ZIP index into an annual-income figure under a fixed rent-share assumption. It is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant screening test. The ZCTA median household-income comparison is broad, while ACS burden statistics describe renter households paying a defined share of gross rent. Those measures identify area-level exposure, not whether a prospective tenant can afford a specific listing.","title":"Income and burden measures answer separate questions"},{"body":"Renter occupancy is a narrow majority of occupied homes, and the housing stock spans a substantial single-family component plus large multifamily structures. The reported vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts give useful area-level supply context, but neither is a live availability feed. They cannot establish that a building has an open unit, what it asks, whether concessions apply, or whether its configuration matches a search.","title":"Vacancy is context rather than live inventory"}],"risks":["The close current readings should not be collapsed into one rent fact: ZORI is an asking-rent index, while ACS is a survey median for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities.","The modelled bedroom ladder applies HUD proportions to the ZIP index. It cannot capture unit-specific condition, included utilities, concessions, lease terms, furnishing, or the actual bedroom mix in current listings.","Recent history is negative at shorter horizons despite positive longer-run growth. Historical coverage improves description of past movement, but it does not convert the index, ranks, or drawdown into a forecast.","Area-level vacancy and burden measures cover stated survey universes. They do not verify that an individual unit is vacant, affordable to a particular household, correctly priced, or available on a desired date."],"qa":[{"a":"The current figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market identifier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking the ZIP-level level and history, but it is not an advertised quote, a lease transaction, or a guarantee of the rent and terms for a particular available home.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent measure represent?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent is drawn from occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow ZORI summarizes asking-rent observations. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Similar dollar readings therefore provide a cross-check, not a basis for treating the measures as equivalent.","q":"Why are the Zillow and ACS figures not interchangeable?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates do not separately observe bedroom rents or adjust for condition, location within the ZIP, utilities, lease duration, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed market rents?"},{"a":"The income screen is a fixed-share arithmetic calculation, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Burden and vacancy figures are area-level ACS results for their stated universes. They can frame aggregate pressure and stock conditions, but cannot establish a household's finances, a unit's availability, or the price and utility terms of a particular listing.","q":"What can affordability, burden, and vacancy data establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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