For ZIP 28216, the June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,842, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its 1.97% year-over-year increase is a current asking-rent signal, not a lease quote for any one home. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because the rent index describes this ZIP market while the survey evidence later in this report is tied to the statistical match.
The affordability tension is immediate. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the current asking-rent index produces $73,680 in annual household income, above the ZCTA’s $65,795 median household income. The same arithmetic places the index at 33.6% of that median income, before any differences in household composition, utilities, concessions, or unit size. Among occupied renter homes in the ACS survey, 52.6% reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; neither the burden share nor the ZIP index establishes the affordability of a particular unit or household.
The historical rent path is positive but has cooled. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes annualize to 1.97% over one year, 2.50% over three years, and 4.86% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, yet breaks from its earlier pace rather than extending it. Monthly-return variability annualized at 2.24%, which supports more confidence in the broad index level than in a highly erratic series would. The maximum drawdown was only 1.43%, a separate sign that the observed series had limited peak-to-trough retreat. History coverage is 100%; the transparent national history-eligible ZIP discovery ranks are 1,408 for momentum, 336 for stability, and 620 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why rent figures should not be substituted for one another. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,560 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent measure. Zillow ZORI is 18.1% above that ACS median. The local HUD FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,780, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,604 for a studio, $1,676 for one bedroom, $1,842 for two bedrooms, $2,266 for three bedrooms, and $2,877 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents or direct rental comparables.
Housing composition gives context to the broad index without proving conditions at an individual property. The ZCTA has 25,442 housing units and a 6.2% vacancy rate. Its 11,719 renter-occupied homes account for 49.1% of occupied housing, while 17,759 units are single-family and 1,854 are in larger multifamily structures; 474 vacant units were identified as for rent. Against wider measures, Charlotte city context has a $1,745.77 asking-rent index, Mecklenburg County context has $1,751, and the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC metro context has $1,750; each is broader context rather than ZIP evidence. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is higher than all three contextual benchmarks.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation presents a different tension. Median sold price was $324,917, down 1.69% year over year, with 198 homes sold and a median 54 days on market. Inventory stood at 278 homes and months of supply at 4.3, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.24% and 16.6% of sales closed above list price. These are for-sale-market liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 6.80% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rising asking rent and the stable historical path are challenged by declining resale price and relatively available resale supply.
Viewed together, the evidence does not point in one uncomplicated direction. The ZIP asking-rent index exceeds its ACS gross-rent benchmark, its income screen is tighter than the ZCTA median-income comparison, and the renter burden share is substantial. At the same time, the rent series has shown modest recent growth with low variability and limited historical retreat. The resale evidence adds a contrary current-market signal because sold prices declined while inventory and marketing time describe a less compressed for-sale setting. The most defensible reading is a cross-source screening tension: rent history is comparatively steady, but household-income alignment and current resale conditions warrant independent verification rather than a conclusion drawn from one headline metric.
Important limits remain. ZORI blends rental types and does not report a specific home’s condition, lease term, concessions, utility treatment, or bedroom count. ACS values are five-year survey estimates for the ZCTA and do not identify current listings; HUD standards are administrative benchmarks. Redfin covers ZIP resale activity on a rolling basis and cannot establish rental economics. Concrete property-level checks include current comparable asking listings matched by bedroom count and structure type, quoted utilities and concessions, lease duration, unit condition, and contemporaneous sale listings and closed comparables. Those checks can test whether the broad ZIP signals apply to a particular property without treating vacancy, burden, or resale data as proof about that property.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 28216’s Zillow ZORI is $1,842, while the matched ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,560. The 18.1% difference reflects distinct evidence universes: ZORI is a current observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS reports survey-based gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities.","title":"Asking rent is above survey gross rent"},{"body":"At a 30% rent-to-income calculation, the current ZIP asking-rent index corresponds to $73,680 in annual income, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $65,795. Separately, 52.6% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. These figures describe aggregate arithmetic and survey conditions, not applicant eligibility or a specific household.","title":"Income and burden data create the central household screen"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow ZORI growth was 1.97% over one year, below the 2.50% three-year and 4.86% five-year annualized rates. Low 2.24% annualized monthly-return variability and a 1.43% maximum drawdown make the historical index comparatively steady, but the decelerating recent rate means the longer historical pace should not be assumed to persist.","title":"Rent history remains positive but slower"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $324,917 median sold price, down 1.69% year over year, alongside 4.3 months of supply and 54 median days on market. Those for-sale measures sit uneasily beside positive asking-rent history. The 6.80% annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not property economics.","title":"Resale signals challenge the rent-only view"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot verify a specific unit’s bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease term, or achieved rent.","ACS results apply to the matched Census ZCTA, which is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, and the five-year survey framework is not a current listing inventory.","The bedroom ladder is modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with local HUD standards. HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative benchmarks, not measured asking rents or direct comparable rents.","Redfin resale observations describe homes sold and listed in the for-sale market over a rolling period. They cannot establish rental transaction prices, operating costs, financing terms, or property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different things. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. The figures are therefore useful as separate reference points, not interchangeable rental quotes.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures for the same ZIP label?"},{"a":"It is the arithmetic annual income implied when the $1,842 monthly ZIP asking-rent index is set equal to 30% of gross income. It is not advice, an affordability determination, an applicant qualification standard, or evidence that any particular renter can or cannot pay a particular lease price.","q":"What does the $73,680 required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom values are modelled estimates. They scale the overall ZIP Zillow ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent screening framework, but they are not measured bedroom-specific asking rents, executed lease rents, or property-level rental comparables.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The Redfin block is direct ZIP resale evidence and should remain in the for-sale universe. Its declining median sold price, available inventory, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals challenge a simple positive-rent narrative. They do not negate Zillow’s asking-rent history, but they show that current resale conditions and rent-index direction are not moving in a uniformly reinforcing way.","q":"How should the resale data affect interpretation of the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":963.787669},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":964.467143},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":963.997591},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":963.717653},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":971.86776},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":977.238945},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":976.691239},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":983.933226},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":991.330606},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1005.781972},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1003.820432},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1013.89321},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1012.732417},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1025.109482},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1022.311898},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1033.165436},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1031.353648},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1034.857267},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1040.836996},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1050.590103},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1048.829853},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1051.056642},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1058.326049},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1072.733026},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1079.390574},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1078.178342},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1075.829669},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1073.504004},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1083.165479},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1103.293104},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1118.625504},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1124.933652},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1130.356357},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1131.561013},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1136.579556},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1138.481441},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1148.256634},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1169.543014},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1173.382791},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1183.502834},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1181.301209},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1182.239648},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1175.655566},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1180.04994},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1186.992008},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1202.23175},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1210.63716},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1208.776453},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1223.035033},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1207.778019},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1220.812955},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1225.857831},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1236.748879},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1238.790664},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1249.065915},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1254.433472},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1260.868931},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1261.884407},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1265.850751},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1277.748855},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1275.169172},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1291.363315},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1274.18942},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1277.88822},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1273.248671},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1290.068663},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1301.460214},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1305.172086},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1317.608597},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1338.098219},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1362.529821},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1372.31259},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1378.52223},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1384.691771},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1400.010753},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1423.31754},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1444.608746},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1452.530098},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1466.95357},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1501.339491},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1530.914344},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1547.677809},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1554.892033},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1564.759729},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1584.114672},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1596.893555},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1610.488629},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1617.50972},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1624.712015},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1650.645482},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1657.869385},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1666.481065},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1657.704761},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1666.990041},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1678.36541},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1690.048492},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1705.439551},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1706.573989},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1719.458218},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1706.472412},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1715.246234},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1710.275999},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1720.532019},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1716.479791},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1718.994575},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1723.718803},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1718.903097},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1723.487326},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1709.152476},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1718.321288},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1698.999871},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1718.823137},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1717.005165},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1735.461837},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1747.259143},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1765.883351},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1774.544562},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1785.68522},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1785.73567},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1799.392535},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1796.539628},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1796.471417},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1798.836985},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1798.604534},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1808.318825},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1806.079177},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1799.65975},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1794.401897},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1797.539948},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1794.654943},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1804.63672},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1799.535032},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1814.929724},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1819.685672},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1834.248393},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1836.832729},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1838.47827},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1841.720797}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1806.079177,"endRent":1841.720797,"change":0.019734251108084022,"cagr":0.019734251108084022},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1710.275999,"endRent":1841.720797,"change":0.0768558981572891,"cagr":0.02498898204529043},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1452.530098,"endRent":1841.720797,"change":0.2679398516670186,"cagr":0.04862384826947208}},"maxDrawdown":-0.014340466645127115,"annualizedVolatility":0.022415882082724214,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}