At $2,030 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI places 28277 above the Charlotte city-context rent of $1,745.77, the Mecklenburg County context rent of $1,751, and the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC metro-context rent of $1,750. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median signed lease, an all-in household cost, or a bedroom-specific quote. The five-digit label 28277 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The comparison establishes a broad local-to-context pricing contrast while leaving any particular property’s terms unmeasured.
The short-run path conflicts with the longer record. Through the stated endpoint, direct Zillow observations show an exact same-month annualized change of -0.56% over one year, followed by +0.74% annually over three years and +3.72% annually over five years. The recent decline therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path; it is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast. History has 100% coverage across 138 monthly observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability was 1.89%, and maximum drawdown was -2.69%. In the national history-eligible ZIP discovery universe, momentum ranked 2,437, stability ranked 78, and balanced rank was 1,486, where lower numerical rank is higher. Complete coverage and the recorded variation lend more confidence to the index history than a gap-filled series, but one current index snapshot still cannot specify a listing rent.
The provided FY 2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is a ZIP SAFMR or county-derived administrative bedroom standard, not asking rent. Its span runs from $2,030 for a studio to $3,640 for a four-bedroom unit. Proportionally scaling the aggregate ZIP ZORI through that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,769 for a studio, $1,856 for one bedroom, $2,030 for two bedrooms, $2,500 for three bedrooms, and $3,171 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, leases, or listing medians. Their purpose is to translate the aggregate asking-rent index into a consistent bedroom ladder; they do not encode a building’s features, fees, utilities, term, condition, or concession terms.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,882 for occupied renter homes, with a supplied $54 margin of error. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow captures a typical observed asking-rent index, so the lower ACS median is not a conflicting quote or proof of a current rent change. ACS median household income is $128,627 and describes households broadly rather than renter income specifically. Applying the current index to a 30% required-income screen yields $81,200 annually. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 4,547 of 11,306 occupied renter households as spending 30% or more of income on gross rent, a 40.2% burden share; the supplied margins of error are $745 for the burden count and $883 for the renter-household count. These are population estimates, not findings about a particular unit or household.
The ZCTA housing stock totals 30,335 units, including 20,983 single-family units and 4,642 units in larger multifamily structures. The survey classified 1,391 units as vacant, equal to a 4.6% total vacancy rate. These figures describe housing-stock and vacancy classifications within the survey geography, not a real-time count of listings that can be leased. They also do not identify which structures or rental types contribute to Zillow’s blended asking-rent index. A vacant classification cannot establish that a unit is currently available, priced at the index level, in comparable condition, or offered with any particular lease terms.
The three wider areas remain context only. Charlotte city, Mecklenburg County, and the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC metro each provide broader geographic readings rather than additional measurements for 28277. A citywide, countywide, or metro-wide rent statistic cannot convert the ZIP index into a neighborhood, building, or lease-specific figure. Likewise, broader renter-share, vacancy, income, and burden measures do not replace the matched ZCTA evidence. The ZIP’s current level above each supplied context rent is a descriptive contrast, not evidence of a cause, a durable relationship, a value judgment, or an outcome. This packet supports market orientation and source-aware comparison, not claims about future rents or property performance.
The most useful next step is to retain the separate evidence universes rather than merge their dollar figures. Zillow provides the current broad asking-rent reference; ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes and selected-utility gross rent; HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative ladder; and city, county, and metro figures provide wider context. For an individual property, verify the advertised base rent, exact bedroom count, full utility responsibility, mandatory fees, concessions, lease length, available date, address assignment, and genuine availability. Compare those details on the same rent basis before using any index or modelled estimate. Does the specific listing’s documented monthly cost and bedroom configuration actually match the broad ZIP reference being considered?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow reading is above each supplied wider-context rent, but those city, county, and metro figures are not substitute ZIP readings. The one-year decline occurs after positive three- and five-year annualized change. That juxtaposition is the key current signal: a high relative index level paired with recent cooling, with no forecast implied.","title":"High local level meets recent cooling"},{"body":"HUD’s bedroom ladder is used only to scale the aggregate ZIP asking-rent index. The resulting studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates, not observed rent medians, executed leases, or listings. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains a bedroom-specific administrative standard. A property can differ because the estimate does not encode its advertised terms, utility treatment, or condition.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"The ACS matched ZCTA portrays occupied renter homes under a different measurement design from Zillow. Median gross rent includes selected utilities, and burden is a survey-based household statistic rather than a listing statistic. The median household income comparison and required-income calculation are broad screens, so neither determines whether an individual renter or unit is affordable.","title":"ACS answers a different rent question"},{"body":"Survey vacancy, stock, and occupancy data describe classifications at the ZCTA level. They should not be read as a real-time inventory of units that can be leased. The history series is complete and has limited recorded variation, but it still summarizes an index. Verify address, rent components, bedroom count, fee schedule, term, and availability for the actual property.","title":"Vacancy is not live listing inventory"}],"risks":["Zillow’s current asking-rent index, the ACS occupied-renter gross-rent survey, and HUD’s administrative standards cover different populations and cost definitions, so matching dollar amounts do not validate one another.","A modelled bedroom estimate inherits the aggregate asking-rent index and HUD ladder rather than a sample of actual same-bedroom leases. Floor plan, condition, fees, term, utilities, and concessions can make a particular listing materially different.","ACS estimates use a matched statistical ZCTA and multi-year survey window, with reported margins of error. The ZCTA does not match every USPS delivery ZIP boundary, so address-level assignment requires verification.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are area-level survey classifications. They cannot demonstrate that a vacancy is currently leasable, that a unit’s utilities match gross rent, or that any applicant meets a screening threshold."],"qa":[{"a":"They are intentionally different evidence universes. Zillow measures a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the ZIP market identifier. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, reports median gross rent, and includes selected utilities. Timing, population, and rent definitions differ, so a gap does not by itself show an error or a trend.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The estimates begin with the single aggregate ZIP ZORI and apply proportions from the local HUD bedroom ladder. This preserves the index’s overall level while spreading it across bedroom categories. It does not observe studio, one-bedroom, or other bedroom-specific leases. Therefore the outputs are modelled estimates that must be checked against an actual property’s advertised rent and terms.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"Recent same-month decline needs to be read next to the longer annualized positive changes, which makes the latest direction a break from the longer historical path. Complete observed coverage and limited recorded variability improve confidence that the reported index history is internally represented. Neither measure predicts subsequent rents, returns, or property performance.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides by 30 percent. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification rule. For a listing, compare the stated base rent, utilities, mandatory charges, concessions, bedroom count, lease term, availability, and address with the relevant measure.","q":"What should be checked before applying the required-income screen to a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1330.940215},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1342.988096},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1345.201752},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1357.208748},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1358.596113},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1361.583577},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1367.436437},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1373.920367},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1371.771193},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1367.282189},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1367.385853},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1376.566789},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1385.330197},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1399.192238},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1401.357927},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1403.030313},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1400.58907},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1396.602656},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1393.655485},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1393.633555},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1406.428536},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1420.322634},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1425.731761},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1421.272763},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1421.713956},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1418.388305},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1425.858991},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1428.79481},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1433.735956},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1437.712285},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1441.171765},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1447.28668},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1448.221793},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1449.580482},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1448.445077},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1453.417055},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1447.004499},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1449.063243},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1451.988798},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1458.671824},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1466.836352},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1471.204367},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1478.172614},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1483.56047},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1483.040253},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1482.839417},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1487.423901},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1499.429351},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1501.157109},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1507.179197},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1509.11424},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1510.373004},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1510.967711},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1515.587284},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1518.415163},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1520.845755},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1528.321435},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1535.519038},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1542.052941},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1541.860014},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1554.429454},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1560.628376},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1565.241285},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1541.992756},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1530.715131},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1523.209459},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1526.405825},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1531.118816},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1539.087431},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1549.196088},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1551.760534},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1556.322432},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1560.630765},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1580.357137},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1603.525362},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1630.961092},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1660.564545},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1690.985435},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1716.926513},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1745.678444},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1760.244896},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1785.328666},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1807.242477},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1841.81975},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1846.216918},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1855.055801},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1858.418011},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1889.787952},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1912.359008},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1935.836369},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1951.944785},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1954.303796},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1957.503422},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1955.022534},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1969.236438},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1974.712951},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1993.2974},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1998.00702},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2004.613923},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1993.485155},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1991.566077},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1985.591575},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1990.219079},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1993.908594},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2011.603369},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2016.170394},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2013.742176},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2009.95168},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2017.049975},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2020.477365},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2020.932831},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2023.008305},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2031.022097},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2035.074162},{"period":"2024-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