At $1,390 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI places 28314 in a slower-current-growth position than its longer rent record might suggest. The typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rose 2.38% on an exact same-month one-year basis, versus annualized gains of 2.87% over three years and 6.06% over five years. Recent direction therefore continues the historical upward path rather than reversing it, but it has decelerated materially from the longer-run pace. That distinction matters because a single current asking-rent snapshot captures the level of the index, not the speed at which prior gains may persist.
The history is complete across 138 monthly observations, with 100% coverage, which supports confidence that the stated path is based on a continuous ZIP series rather than a sparse sample. Monthly ZORI returns annualize to 2.61% variability, indicating comparatively limited movement around the longer-term trend. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.52%, a modest observed peak-to-trough retreat that reinforces the stable-growth classification without making the series risk-free. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,189 for momentum, 903 for stability, and 809 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements and discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the low variability supports more confidence in the current index than a highly erratic series would.
Several rent measures describe different universes and should not be substituted for one another. For wider context only, the Fayetteville city-scope asking-rent context is $1,401, the Cumberland County-scope asking-rent context is $1,407, and the Fayetteville, NC metro-scope asking-rent context is $1,475; none replaces the ZIP observation. The matched ACS five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,278, making current ZIP ZORI 8.8% higher, but ACS reflects occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,124, and ZORI is 23.7% higher; HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent measure. ZIP 28314 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, while a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The bedroom view is modelled rather than measured: scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,141 for a studio, $1,158 for one bedroom, $1,390 for two bedrooms, $1,888 for three bedrooms, and $2,313 for four bedrooms. Those estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom spacing, but they are not observed bedroom rents, lease comps, or proof of what a specific unit will command. At the ZIP ZORI level, the arithmetic income screen at 30% is $55,600 annually, compared with ACS median household income of $62,249; the index equals 26.8% of that median income. The ACS survey also shows 46.8% of renter households, about 5,622 households, paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden statistic cannot establish the affordability of a particular available unit.
The matched ZCTA contains 24,870 housing units, with an 8.1% vacancy rate and renter-occupied households representing 52.6% of occupied homes. Its stock includes 14,941 single-family units and 2,756 units in larger multifamily structures, showing that the rental evidence sits within a mixed housing inventory rather than a single property type. Of vacant homes, 899 are identified as vacant for rent. That count provides a broad survey-based availability signal, not a live listing count, nor confirmation that any particular unit is habitable, competitively priced, or immediately obtainable. The renter majority also makes the ACS burden measure relevant as an area-level condition, while still leaving individual household incomes, utilities, concessions, and lease terms unobserved.
The direct rolling three-month ZIP resale evidence introduces a meaningful counterweight to the rent history. Redfin reports a median sold price of $234,947, essentially unchanged at a 0.02% year-over-year decline, across 229 homes sold with a median 29 days on market. Inventory was 228 homes and rose 19.3% year over year, while months of supply stood at 3.0. Sellers received 98.37% of list price on average; 14.36% of sales closed above list, and 35.94% of listings went off market within two weeks. This is a for-sale market observation, not rental transaction evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 7.10% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The central tension is that rents have kept rising, household-income arithmetic appears less strained at the median than the local burden share might imply, yet the resale market shows near-flat sold prices alongside expanding inventory. The resale evidence therefore challenges a simple reading that the longer rent-growth record automatically translates into strengthening for-sale pricing. At the same time, rapid enough marketing, sales activity, and a sale-to-list result below full list do not establish either a weak or strong outcome for any one property. The gap between ZORI and ACS gross rent is also informative rather than contradictory: one tracks current typical asking-rent conditions and the other reflects occupied homes, selected utilities, and a survey period. Each signal should remain in its source universe.
Limits are material. ZORI does not reveal unit condition, utilities, concessions, pet charges, lease length, or bedroom-specific observed rents; ACS margins and survey design constrain precision; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin resale data do not describe rental economics. A property-level review would need the actual asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, lease structure, condition, days available, comparable active rentals, and any recent sale or listing history. It would also need to distinguish the property’s immediate competitive set from ZIP-wide averages and from the ZCTA survey boundary. The remaining decision question is whether the specific unit’s documented terms align with the modelled bedroom range and the broader, but non-interchangeable, rent and resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI reached $1,390 in June 2026. The one-year exact same-month gain was 2.38%, below the annualized three-year gain of 2.87% and the five-year gain of 6.06%. This preserves the longer upward direction but indicates slower recent appreciation in the asking-rent index rather than a renewed acceleration.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index exceeds matched ACS median gross rent, which describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It also exceeds the local two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR standard, an administrative benchmark. These gaps are useful for source comparison, but neither ACS gross rent nor HUD standards should be treated as a direct asking-rent comp.","title":"Current asking rent sits above survey and HUD references"},{"body":"The 30% income screen for the ZIP ZORI level is below the ZCTA median household income, yet nearly half of surveyed renter households are burdened at or above that threshold. This is not a contradiction: the median-income screen is simple arithmetic, while ACS burden reflects the distribution of renter incomes and gross-rent obligations across occupied households.","title":"Area-level burden remains substantial despite median-income arithmetic"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale data show a nearly unchanged median sold price while inventory increased year over year. Homes still sold and marketing time remained measured in weeks, but average sale-to-list results stayed below full list. That for-sale evidence does not negate rent growth, but it challenges any assumption that rental index gains and resale pricing must move together.","title":"Resale conditions temper the rent-history signal"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot determine the achievable rent, concession package, utilities, or lease economics for a particular studio, house, apartment, or bedroom count.","ACS burden, vacancy, household income, and gross-rent measures are ZCTA-level five-year survey estimates. They describe area-level conditions and cannot prove affordability, availability, or payment stress for a specific renter or property.","Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale observations concern for-sale transactions rather than rental leases. Median sold price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list measures should not be converted into rental demand or property-income conclusions.","The bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. They are not measured bedroom rents and may differ from actual listings because unit condition, utility treatment, fees, and concessions are unobserved."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different evidence universes. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A gap can therefore reflect timing, occupancy, utility inclusion, and composition differences without showing an error.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They show a consistent bedroom-size pattern for screening, but they are not lease observations, listing medians, or evidence that a specific bedroom type will rent at that amount.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 28314?"},{"a":"The one-year exact same-month increase remains positive, so the current reading does not break from the longer rent-growth path. However, it is slower than both the three-year and five-year annualized rates. Combined with low observed variability and a limited drawdown, history supports a stable past pattern rather than a forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about current momentum?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price from a separate resale dataset. It can flag the relationship between current asking-rent scale and resale pricing, but it excludes expenses, financing, vacancies, maintenance, taxes, unit characteristics, and actual property income. It is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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