At $1,648, the current ZIP asking-rent reading sits $374, or 29.4%, above the $1,274 ACS median gross rent, while the local median household income is $57,968. The arithmetic required-income screen at 30% of income produces $65,920, placing the index-implied rent burden at 34.1% of that median income. This is the central tension: the current Zillow ZORI snapshot is above both the survey rent benchmark and the simple income screen. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease quote for a specific available home, nor does the income screen establish advice or an applicant qualification rule.
The rent path remains positive but has moderated relative to its longer record. The exact same-month one-year change was 2.26%, the three-year annualized change was 2.40%, and the five-year annualized change was 5.62%. Thus, recent growth confirms a positive direction but breaks from the substantially faster pace embedded in the longer path. Monthly-return variability of 4.04% means a single current rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than being treated as a stable point estimate. The largest historical pullback was 2.95%, showing that the series did experience retrenchment despite its positive multiyear changes. Coverage is 100%, based on 130 observations and 129 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,343 for momentum, 2,618 for stability, and 2,197 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom ladder should be read as a model, not as a set of observed asking-rent samples. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,322 for a studio, $1,504 for one bedroom, $1,648 for two bedrooms, $2,292 for three bedrooms, and $2,680 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,426; HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its role here is to supply relative bedroom scaling, while Zillow supplies the underlying all-types asking-rent index. An actual listing can differ because its utility treatment, condition, lease terms, size, and availability are outside this model.
The matched ACS ZCTA indicates a renter-heavy occupied base but also a meaningful vacant stock. Of 13,424 housing units, 11,085 were occupied and 2,339 were vacant, a 17.4% vacancy rate. Renters occupied 58.9% of occupied homes, and 53.3% of renter households were recorded as paying 30% or more of income toward rent. The housing stock included 7,706 single-family units and 2,036 units in larger multifamily structures; 536 units were classified as vacant for rent. These figures describe aggregate survey categories, not a particular property’s vacancy, affordability, or leasing prospects. They nevertheless reinforce the need to separate a high current asking-rent index from the rents and household budgets recorded among occupied renter homes.
Wider rent comparisons place the ZIP below each supplied broader benchmark, but none replaces ZIP evidence. As context only, the City of Wilmington scope has a Zillow rent measure of $1,694, New Hanover County scope has $1,698, and the Wilmington, NC metro scope has $1,727. The ZIP’s lower asking-rent index therefore does not eliminate its affordability tension, because the ZIP income screen is also based on local household income rather than those broader geographies. City, county, and metro values are context with their respective geographic scopes; they are not alternative measurements of ZIP 28401 listings, household finances, or resale conditions.
Redfin provides a separate signal that challenges a simple rent-strength reading. Its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $386,913, up 6.44% year over year, with 110 homes sold and median days on market of 64. Inventory was 211 homes and months of supply stood at 5.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.28%, while 14.97% of sales closed above list price. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Rising median sold prices confirm some upward movement in resale values, yet the marketing time, supply, and below-list average sale signal a less uniformly tight resale picture than a rent snapshot alone might imply. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 5.11% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a property-level economics measure or an expected outcome.
Source boundaries are especially important here. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is a survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s observed asking-rent index. The ACS estimates also carry stated margins of error. HUD is an administrative standard with its own bedroom structure, and Redfin is a direct ZIP resale series with a different transaction universe and rolling period. No conversion among these sources makes their levels interchangeable, and differences can reflect definitions, timing, and covered populations rather than a contradiction in the data.
Decision use should focus on testing the gaps revealed by the data rather than extending them into a prediction. Verify the exact bedroom count before using the modelled ladder; confirm the advertised rent date, utilities, mandatory fees, lease term, square footage, condition, and whether the address belongs to the intended geography. For a resale comparison, inspect the actual sold-property characteristics, listing history, concessions, and current competition rather than applying the ZIP median to a specific home. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or a qualification rule. The practical question is whether a specific available unit’s all-in terms align with the relevant asking-rent, household-budget, and resale evidence without treating any one series as dispositive.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP Zillow ZORI is materially above the matched ACS median gross rent. This comparison is useful as a definition-aware gap, not as proof that any listing is overpriced. ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS records occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds occupied-renter survey rent"},{"body":"One-year and three-year same-month rent changes were both positive, but each trailed the five-year annualized pace. The high-variability classification and the historical drawdown mean that the latest ZORI level should be treated as a current observation with an uneven prior path, not as a stable trend projection.","title":"Recent rent gains are positive but slower than the long path"},{"body":"The index-implied 30% income screen is above the reported median household income, while more than half of renter households in the matched ACS geography were rent burdened. At the same time, the ACS vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count show aggregate unused stock. Neither measure identifies conditions at a particular unit.","title":"Affordability and vacancy measures create an aggregate tension"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher year-over-year median sold price, but the observed marketing time, months of supply, and average sale-to-list result do not describe an uniformly aggressive resale environment. These are for-sale signals only. The rent-to-price calculation remains a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-specific financial result.","title":"Resale evidence is firmer on price than on urgency"}],"risks":["A current Zillow asking-rent index may differ from a specific unit because bedroom count, utility inclusion, fees, condition, lease duration, size, and listing availability are not captured by the ZIP-level index.","The ACS rent, burden, vacancy, and income measures are survey estimates for a matched ZCTA over five years, so they cannot establish current conditions or payment burdens for an individual household or address.","The modelled bedroom estimates inherit both Zillow’s all-types asking-rent index and HUD’s administrative bedroom ladder, making them unsuitable as measured rent comparables without listing-level verification.","Redfin’s resale observation can inform ZIP for-sale liquidity and pricing context, but it does not measure rental transactions, operating costs, concessions, financing, or the economics of a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes and periods. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap should therefore be interpreted as a definition-aware comparison, not as a direct mismatch in identical rents.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent figure exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD provides an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than observed asking rents. A specific studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit can differ materially based on its actual terms and characteristics.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for ZIP 28401?"},{"a":"The history shows positive one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month changes, but the shorter measures are slower than the five-year pace. High monthly-return variability and a documented drawdown indicate an uneven historical path. That makes the current index useful as a timely benchmark, while limiting confidence in treating one observation as a durable trajectory.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current index?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price, combining two sources with different universes. It can flag a broad rent-price relationship for further review, but it does not include property expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy at a property, or the characteristics of any actual rental home.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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