For the Wilmington, NC market, the 28403 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At June 2026, ZIP Zillow ZORI is $1,754 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for a particular listing. The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey puts median gross rent for occupied renter homes at $1,380, including selected utilities, making the asking index 27.1% higher. Against $54,547 median household income, the 30% required-income screen yields $70,160. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
History shows a recent pickup, but it does not support a simple uninterrupted-growth reading. The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI series through the stated endpoint has 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized change is 3.74% over one year, 1.42% over three years, and 4.97% over five years. Thus, the latest pace accelerates relative to the middle historical path but remains below the longest path, partly breaking rather than fully confirming that longer trajectory. Annualized monthly-return volatility was 3.34%, and maximum drawdown was a 2.09% decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,214 for momentum, 2,086 for stability, and 1,731 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The recorded variation means a current ZORI reading deserves snapshot-level confidence rather than certainty about persistence.
The bedroom view is a scaling exercise, not a new rent observation. The supplied local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, ranges from $1,144 for a studio to $2,319 for the largest supplied bedroom class. Scaling ZIP ZORI to its full local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,407, $1,600, $1,754, $2,439, and $2,852 across studio through four-bedroom classes. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The middle model aligns with the central index because of the scaling method, not because the packet observed an asking rent for that bedroom class. HUD is useful here as a consistent administrative ladder, but it does not establish a listing price, a lease result, or program eligibility.
Survey housing patterns place the affordability screen in a broader household setting without identifying a particular property. The ACS ZCTA reports a 9.3% total vacancy rate across its housing stock, while renters account for a 64.3% share of occupied homes. The same survey says 56.4% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent, and it separately lists 620 vacant units for rent. Gross-rent and burden estimates are five-year survey measures for occupied renter homes, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. A vacant-for-rent count does not show the condition, price, availability, or terms of any specific unit, and the burden share does not establish any individual household’s qualification or experience.
Broader comparisons show the direct ZIP index above surrounding rent contexts, but those values are not substitutes for ZIP evidence. The City of Wilmington context rent value is $1,694, the New Hanover County context rent value is $1,698, and the Wilmington, NC metro context rent value is $1,727; each is a wider geographic scope than this ZIP. The metro apartment-vacancy statistic and the ZIP total-housing vacancy measure also cover different evidence universes, so they are not interchangeable supply readings. City, county, and metro context can frame the direct ZIP result, but none replaces the matched ZCTA survey, the local HUD standard, or the ZIP-level Zillow history.
Several limits block unit-level inference. ZORI’s blend of rental types supplies a current market index but neither a complete list of available units nor a bedroom observation; ACS is a lagged five-year survey with sampling uncertainty; and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. Differences in timing, included utilities, occupancy status, geography, and purpose can create gaps without implying error in any source. For a property-level reading, verify the advertised base rent, exact bedroom count, unit type, lease term, availability date, utilities included or billed separately, required recurring fees, and any stated concessions. Confirm that the listing actually falls within the market identifier’s geography. These checks test the offered unit’s all-in terms; the packet does not establish them.
Taken together, the evidence describes a renter-heavy ZCTA where the present asking-rent index sits well above the survey median, with a recent growth rate stronger than the middle historical window but slower than the longest one. The burden and vacancy measures give household and stock context, not proof about an available apartment, house, tenant, or lease. The modelled ladder is useful for maintaining a consistent bedroom relationship to HUD, while the history tempers confidence in treating a single month as a durable trend. No source here measures the exact unit a reader may be considering. The decisive unresolved question is: do that unit’s documented rent, recurring charges, utilities, bedroom count, and lease terms match the specific comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, the ZIP ZORI is $1,754, compared with $1,380 for ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent in the matched ZCTA. The 27.1% difference does not make one source wrong. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Neither number is an advertised price for a named dwelling.","title":"Asking index exceeds survey rent"},{"body":"The 3.74% one-year annualized change exceeds the 1.42% three-year change but remains below the 4.97% five-year change. Full stated coverage, 3.34% annualized monthly-return volatility, and a 2.09% maximum drawdown describe the observed path. Momentum, stability, and balanced ranks are national discovery measures among eligible ZIPs, with lower ranks higher; they are not forecasts.","title":"Recent acceleration is incomplete confirmation"},{"body":"The $1,407 through $2,852 sequence is a modelled studio-to-four-bedroom ladder, not a set of measured rents. It is produced by scaling the ZIP index with the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD’s $1,426 two-bedroom standard is an administrative benchmark rather than asking rent. A model value matching the central index follows the construction and does not validate a listing.","title":"HUD-scaled bedrooms are modelled, not measured"},{"body":"ACS shows a 64.3% renter share and a 56.4% share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent, alongside a 9.3% total vacancy rate. The 620 units categorized as vacant for rent are a category total, not available-unit evidence. City of Wilmington, New Hanover County, and Wilmington, NC metro figures remain wider context and cannot determine a building’s terms.","title":"Aggregate renter exposure is substantial"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index, ACS gross-rent survey, and HUD standard differ in timing, population, included utilities, geography, and purpose. Their gaps cannot establish an error, concession, or unit-specific premium.","The bedroom ladder is generated by a proportional method. It can preserve the HUD bedroom relationship while missing actual unit mix, asking prices, included charges, concessions, or observed differences among properties.","ACS ZCTA results are five-year survey estimates with stated margins of error, and the ZCTA is statistical geography. Household patterns may not align precisely with a USPS delivery ZIP or current listings.","History describes observations through the endpoint only. The acceleration relative to the intermediate period, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks do not establish future rents, leasing pace, returns, or property performance."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI reflects a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types at its current date. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the ZCTA, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and sampling differ, so the gap cannot price a particular home.","q":"Why is the current asking index higher than ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates produced by scaling the single ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, not observed asking rent. The calculation offers a consistent relative ladder, but it does not measure studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit listings.","q":"Do the bedroom figures report local asking rents?"},{"a":"The latest same-month annualized change is higher than the middle historical change but lower than the longest historical change. Monthly-return volatility and the recorded drawdown show that the series has moved around its path. Full stated coverage and national discovery ranks describe observed history completeness and relative discovery position, not a forecast, investment signal, or commitment that the current reading will persist.","q":"What does the history say about trajectory confidence?"},{"a":"The packet does not identify an available dwelling, its advertised base rent, all recurring charges, utilities billed separately, lease term, bedroom count, unit type, availability date, or concessions. Those facts are necessary to match an offered unit to the relevant source concept. ZIP, ZCTA, city, county, and metro figures cannot supply them.","q":"What remains unknown at property level?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1084.508324},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1097.371641},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1101.872265},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1133.614736},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1147.427806},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1147.24007},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1138.13694},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1125.047685},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1140.279389},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1151.605914},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1165.259445},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1174.602098},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1186.396556},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1192.813778},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1200.82473},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1195.153292},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1206.929998},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1209.992617},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1222.290432},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1217.137819},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1220.347012},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1217.918424},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1209.39913},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1202.764136},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1213.929331},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1232.170814},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1255.310826},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1272.170847},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1278.428267},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1300.282654},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1322.58783},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1359.463409},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1375.944006},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1417.127481},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1459.031072},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1486.844228},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1499.018876},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1532.553151},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1569.947807},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1595.138515},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1597.308187},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1614.118885},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1619.589712},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1639.242322},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1642.641725},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1651.999287},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1653.494604},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1666.997362},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1670.816393},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1654.791521},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1641.124206},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1635.921136},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1665.135267},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1659.117851},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1680.239216},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1663.748607},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1681.147483},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1669.253445},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1658.723065},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1668.320539},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1668.324119},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1681.873397},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1654.66854},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1665.290159},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1665.134024},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1685.29065},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1675.941963},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1679.011304},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1672.141327},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1675.476796},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1678.833298},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1667.103131},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1677.852663},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1684.661195},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1715.989043},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1712.395812},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1714.000914},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1701.435856},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1700.728395},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1693.336602},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1690.375496},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1694.905004},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1700.616306},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1706.792251},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1703.080328},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1699.619699},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1696.728955},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1701.746564},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1702.629225},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1711.881374},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1722.269259},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1739.832751},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1753.599206}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":93,"firstPeriod":"2018-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":93,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1690.375496,"endRent":1753.599206,"change":0.037402169014877806,"cagr":0.037402169014877806},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1681.147483,"endRent":1753.599206,"change":0.043096589521527395,"cagr":0.0141639647611429},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1375.944006,"endRent":1753.599206,"change":0.27446989001963806,"cagr":0.04970173711245773}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02088515359688603,"annualizedVolatility":0.0334090475627513,"consecutiveReturnCount":92}}