In June 2026, resale prices and current asking rent carry different intensities in 28405. Zillow’s June ZIP ZORI is $1,685 per month, 1.4% higher than the same month a year earlier. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $449,898 median sold price, up 6.4% year over year. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by that sale price produces a 4.5% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Redfin tracks for-sale transactions, whereas ZORI tracks asking rent, so the much faster resale-price change challenges any reading that the current rent move alone summarizes market conditions.
What the index and survey figures represent matters before comparing them. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. By contrast, the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched Census ZCTA reports $1,440 median gross rent, with an $81 margin of error, among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The asking index is 17.0% higher, a source-universe difference rather than a measure of identical listings. The 28405 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. As wider context only, the City of Wilmington context asking-rent index is 0.5% above the ZIP, New Hanover County context is 0.8% above it, and the Wilmington, NC metro context is 2.4% above it.
Bedroom detail is constructed rather than observed in this packet. The HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,426, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,352 for a studio, $1,537 for one bedroom, the headline index amount for two bedrooms, $2,343 for three bedrooms, and $2,740 for four bedrooms. The index sits 18.2% above the HUD two-bedroom standard. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the ladder allocates a blended ZORI level across bedroom categories and does not establish what a particular unit will ask.
Applying the 30% screen to the index requires $67,400 of annual income by simple arithmetic. The ZCTA’s median household income is $70,274, which places the index-to-income screen at 28.8%. This screen is not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and a household median cannot describe each renter’s resources. Separately, the ACS estimates that 52.3% of renter households pay 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter homes, not a particular unit, a current applicant, or the price of a new listing.
The ZCTA stock view adds a separate supply lens. Of 17,410 housing units, 1,511 were vacant, equivalent to an 8.7% vacancy rate; renter-occupied homes represented 42.4% of occupied homes. The survey’s vacant-for-rent category describes a classification within stock, not a contemporaneous count of available listings or a measure of concessions. It cannot prove that an individual apartment is vacant, obtainable, or affordable. The stock mix nevertheless helps distinguish a household burden measure based on occupied homes from advertised availability, even before the survey’s geographic and timing limits are considered.
History supplies depth but is backward-looking measurement, not a forecast or an investment recommendation. Exact same-month ZORI changes were 1.4% over one year, 0.8% annualized over three years, and 5.0% annualized over five years. Coverage is 100% across 83 monthly observations through June 2026. The latest gain confirms positive direction relative to the slower three-year path, yet does not sustain the much stronger five-year pace. Monthly-return variability, annualized to 3.1%, shows that past month-to-month movement reduces the confidence that should be placed in a single current rent snapshot. Separately, the historical peak-to-trough maximum drawdown was 3.0%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,917 for momentum, 1,760 for stability, and 2,153 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher, but the ranks remain descriptive.
Liquidity evidence belongs entirely to the for-sale side. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale window, 129 homes sold and median marketing time was 58 days. Inventory was 158 homes, with 3.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.8%, while 15.2% of homes sold above list. Those are resale observations, not rental transactions, rental comparable evidence, or property economics. Their combination with the median-price increase already noted confirms the price-versus-rent tension, while the sub-list average and stated supply prevent the price change from being read as a complete summary of resale conditions. This for-sale record does not overturn the asking-rent, ACS, or HUD screens.
Every measure here is aggregate and has a distinct date and universe. ZORI cannot verify an available apartment; ACS margins and ZCTA boundaries limit precision; HUD standards do not set offers; and Redfin’s resale series does not supply rental comparables. Property-level review should therefore verify the address falls within the relevant geography, the actual advertised rent and bedroom count, included utilities and recurring lease charges, availability and lease terms, listing status, and whether the unit’s features match the intended comparison. For a sale comparison, verify sold date, property type, condition, and listing history rather than applying the ZIP screen to a specific building. Which of those verifiable facts would materially change the cross-source reading?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest ZIP asking-rent reading rose modestly, whereas the direct ZIP median resale price increased much more rapidly. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is therefore a way to screen two separate source streams, not a property result. It cannot identify operating costs, financing, property-level income, or an investment outcome and should not be called a yield.","title":"Rent growth trails resale-price movement"},{"body":"Studio through larger-bedroom estimates are generated by applying the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder to the ZIP-wide ZORI level. They provide a consistent scaling framework, not observed rent medians for bedroom segments. HUD standards are administrative and ZORI blends rental types; neither stream confirms the asking rent, utility treatment, availability, or characteristics of an individual property.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The income calculation measures a typical asking-rent index against area household income; it does not test a household budget or determine eligibility. The ACS burden estimate instead describes occupied renter homes reporting a specified rent share. Together, the figures flag a difference between a broad screen and surveyed renter experiences, while survey error and household variation limit precision.","title":"Affordability screens describe different populations"},{"body":"Resale data establish direct ZIP market liquidity signals for homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Those fields help test whether the rent narrative is isolated, but they are not rental transactions or comparable rents. Historical rent movement adds context, yet its variability and drawdown mean a current index should not be treated as a guaranteed path.","title":"Resale liquidity is a separate decision check"}],"risks":["The ZIP rent index blends rental types and reflects typical observed asks, so it may not match a candidate property’s size, condition, utilities, concessions, timing, or lease structure.","ACS values are ZCTA survey estimates for occupied renter homes, with margins of error; they do not represent current advertised units, every household, or a USPS delivery ZIP boundary.","HUD bedroom standards support a scaling model but are administrative benchmarks, not measured asking rents. A modelled bedroom figure can diverge materially from active listings for a particular property.","Redfin resale metrics describe a rolling ZIP for-sale sample and cannot establish rental demand, rental turnover, expenses, financing, vacancy at a building, or economic results for a specific property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, and rent definitions mean their difference is informative context, not a direct pricing error or a measure of the same units.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates made by scaling the blended ZORI level with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD figures are administrative standards, and the resulting amounts are not measured bedroom rents. They should be checked against an individual property’s actual bedroom count, advertised price, utilities, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply divides the monthly asking-rent index into a thirty-percent-of-income arithmetic screen. It is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The burden share comes from ACS occupied renter households reporting gross rent relative to income, so it cannot prove affordability, payment history, or availability for a particular unit.","q":"What do the required-income and burden figures mean?"},{"a":"No. Redfin supplies a direct rolling ZIP resale observation, including sale price, marketing, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals for homes that sold or were marketed for sale. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is merely a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes operating costs, property-specific rents, financing, taxes, and any calculation of a net or expected return.","q":"Does the resale information show rental return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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