At the center of the 28412 read is a cross-market mismatch: Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index stood at $1,555 per month, up 1.98% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record reported a $449,898 median sold price, 6.48% higher year over year. Annualizing that ZORI and dividing by that sold-price median produces a 4.15% cross-source screening ratio. It is neither a cap rate, net return, expected return, nor property yield; asking rents, sold homes, financing, costs, and individual properties are not matched. Still, faster resale-price change challenges the idea that a small recent rent rise alone settles the local pricing picture.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a record of signed leases or a promise of what a particular listing will achieve. The history is fully covered, with 100% coverage of the available monthly series. Exact same-month annualized changes were 1.98% over one year, 0.35% over three years, and 5.04% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but is stronger than the subdued middle span and weaker than the full five-year pace. Monthly changes translate to 3.28% annualized variability, so one current reading is a useful anchor but not a fine-grained pricing estimate. Separately, the maximum drawdown was a 5.65% decline, documenting a prior reversal. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,841 for momentum, 2,017 for stability, and 2,250 for balance, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,411, or 10.21% below ZORI. That survey concerns occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is neither a current asking-rent series nor a listing-level comp. The applicable HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Using its local ladder to scale ZIP ZORI gives modelled monthly estimates of $1,247 for a studio, $1,419 for one bedroom, $1,555 for two bedrooms, $2,162 for three bedrooms, and $2,529 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income screen supplies a different kind of lens. ACS median household income was $71,636. Holding the current index to a 30% rent-to-income calculation gives required annual income of $62,200 and an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 26.05%. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Survey burden remains the counterweight: ACS estimated that 4,240 of 8,388 renter households, or 50.55%, paid at least that share of income toward gross rent. The burden result does not establish affordability, payment history, or utilities for any individual unit, but it cautions against reading the median-income screen as a universal household outcome.
Housing composition and vacant stock frame how broadly those household results can be generalized. The matched ZCTA counted 21,423 housing units, with a 5.85% overall vacancy rate. Among vacant units, 443 were classified as for rent; that category is not proof of available, suitable, or competitively priced space for a given renter. Single-family units accounted for 13,126 structures, compared with 2,442 large multifamily units. These are stock counts rather than tenure, condition, or rent measures. They provide a scale and mix for interpreting the rent index and burden survey, while offering no evidence about the vacancy, lease terms, or actual payment required at a specific property.
Broader benchmarks point in the opposite direction from the ZIP’s lower asking index, but are context only. In the city scope, Wilmington’s context rent was $1,694; in the county scope, New Hanover County’s was $1,698; and in the metro scope, Wilmington, NC’s was $1,727. Each is above the ZIP figure, yet none is a substitute for ZIP-level listings, its blended ZORI composition, or the ZCTA’s occupied-home survey. The city, county, and metro values therefore establish only a wider comparison frame. They should not be merged with the ZIP data to infer rent for a particular address or to explain differences between areas.
The resale record makes the central tension more concrete but remains wholly for-sale evidence. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation logged 274 homes sold, a median 57 days on market, inventory of 303 homes, and 3.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.24%, while 13.92% of sales closed above list. Together with the higher median sold price in the opening comparison, these signals describe resale liquidity, marketing, inventory, and buyer-seller pricing behavior—not rental transactions, rent comps, or property operating economics. Rising resale prices alongside modest ZORI growth confirms that the two markets are not moving in lockstep; it challenges any conclusion based solely on the rent trend or income screen.
Several limits temper every comparison. ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across mixed rental types; ACS summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes; HUD supplies an administrative standard; and Redfin summarizes resales. Their timing, inclusion rules, and populations differ, so none forecasts rents, sale prices, property value, or household outcomes. A property-level review would need the listing’s current asking rent, verified bedroom count, included utilities, fees or concessions, lease length, availability, condition, and directly relevant sale facts before relating it to these broad measures. It should also distinguish a modelled bedroom estimate from an advertised rent and a resale statistic from a rental comp. Which verified property terms actually resemble the broad ZIP evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"In June 2026, ZIP ZORI was $1,555 and rose 1.98% from the same month a year earlier. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale view instead showed a $449,898 median sold price, up 6.48%. The 4.15% annualized-rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screen only, not a cap rate, yield, or return measure.","title":"Rent and resale are moving at different speeds"},{"body":"Full historical coverage shows exact same-month annualized ZORI changes of 1.98% over one year, 0.35% over three years, and 5.04% over five years. Monthly-return variability annualized to 3.28%, and the prior maximum drawdown was 5.65%. The current increase is backward-looking evidence, while the discovery ranks are not forecasts.","title":"Recent rent growth follows a weaker middle interval"},{"body":"ACS reports a $1,411 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow is an asking-rent index. The $62,200 required-income screen falls below the $71,636 median household income, yet 50.55% of surveyed renter households were burdened at that threshold. These facts describe different populations and do not qualify an applicant.","title":"Median-income arithmetic and renter burden point to different populations"},{"body":"Scaling ZORI by the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder yields modelled estimates from $1,247 for a studio to $2,529 for four bedrooms; these are not observed bedroom rents. The matched ZCTA had a 5.85% vacancy rate and 443 units classified as vacant for rent. Redfin’s inventory and marketing metrics remain for-sale signals, not rental availability.","title":"Bedroom scaling and vacancy data require careful interpretation"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types and records asking rents, so the ZIP-level index may differ materially from a specific unit’s advertised rent, concessions, lease duration, included utilities, and availability.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year surveyed occupied-household estimates, burden counts, and gross-rent measure cannot identify conditions at an individual address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards rather than asking rents; scaling ZORI with that ladder creates modelled estimates whose precision should not be mistaken for observed bedroom-level market rents.","Redfin’s rolling resale measures concern homes sold and listed for sale, not rental transactions. The annualized rent-to-price screen omits financing, expenses, property condition, and any matching of rental and sale properties."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a typical ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZIP label is matched to a Census ZCTA, which is statistical and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing and populations make a gap expected, not a contradiction.","q":"Why does current ZORI differ from ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the applicable local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation. A particular property’s current advertised rent, utilities, condition, and lease terms still require direct verification.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the 30% screen. It is arithmetic for comparing a broad rent index with median household income; it is not financial advice, underwriting, tenant screening, or a qualification rule. The ACS burden share records surveyed household outcomes and cannot determine any applicant’s capacity or a particular unit’s affordability.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether someone qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin’s ZIP record supplies a direct rolling-three-month observation of the for-sale market: sold-price levels and changes, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not document rental transactions or operating results. Dividing annual ZORI by median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, yield, or forecast.","q":"What can the Redfin resale evidence establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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