At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP market identifier 28803, matched to a Census ZCTA, has a Zillow ZORI of $1,643 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, rather than a census rent or a bedroom quote. Its exact same-month one-year change is -0.97%, and the three-year change is -0.96%; both describe a recent downward path. The five-year change remains +3.39%, so the latest direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer expansion. These historical measures are backward-looking observations, not forecasts or investment recommendations, and they do not establish the asking rent for an available unit.
The high-variability designation affects confidence in any single current snapshot. Monthly ZORI changes translate to 4.43% annualized volatility, meaning the past index has not followed a narrowly stable path. Separately, the series experienced a -5.29% maximum drawdown. Coverage is complete: 90 observations yield 89 consecutive monthly returns. Its transparent national balanced discovery score is 8.8, with rank 2,854 among history-eligible ZIPs, where a lower rank is stronger. These are retrospective discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; together, the variation and drawdown warrant treating today's index as a current reference with limited point precision.
Rent sources are intentionally not interchangeable. In the matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,556 with a $79 margin of error; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That survey median is 5.6% below the current ZORI, a difference in universe rather than proof of a listing premium. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD FMR/SAFMR under the stated fiscal-year schedule is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. It supplies the local ladder used for the modelled estimates below; it should not be read as a ZIP asking-rent observation.
Bedroom detail is a scaling exercise, not a local comp set. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,286 for a studio, $1,499 for one bedroom, $1,643 for two, $1,998 for three, and $2,756 for four. The two-bedroom estimate aligns with the headline index because of the scaling anchor, not because a measured two-bedroom series produced that result. Each is a modelled estimate, never a measured bedroom rent, and HUD's administrative standard remains distinct from a landlord's advertised ask. Size, property type, lease terms, and utility treatment can make an actual unit differ.
At the stated 30% screen, annualizing the ZIP index produces required household income of $65,720. The matched ZCTA's ACS median household income is $76,662, and the same annualized rent-to-income arithmetic is 25.7%. This is an arithmetic screen, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Survey burden gives a different distributional view: ACS counts 6,049 renter households, of which 3,241, or 53.6%, report paying at or above that threshold of income toward rent. The burden statistic neither confirms an individual household's cost nor proves what a particular unit will require; it describes surveyed occupied renters over the five-year ACS period.
Stock and vacancy are matched-ZCTA aggregates rather than a catalogue of units. The Census estimate contains 18,441 housing units: 13,459 occupied and 4,982 vacant, for a 27.0% vacancy rate. It also records 11,345 single-family units and 2,259 units in large multifamily structures. Those counts can describe composition and unused stock, but do not establish a unit's availability, asking rent, condition, or lease terms. For wider-geography context only, the City of Asheville context rent is $1,688, Buncombe County context rent is $1,678, and the Asheville, NC metro context rent is $1,688. Each is a named city, county, or metro context value, not a ZIP replacement.
Resale signals provide an independent but non-rental tension. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation, median sold price is $519,883, up 2.95% year over year, across 144 homes sold; median marketing time is 64 days. The same for-sale record shows 453 active listings, 301 homes in inventory after a 10.7% inventory increase, and 6.3 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence remains within that resale universe: average sale-to-list is 96.9%, 5.7% sold above list, and 29.8% went off market within two weeks. A rising resale median alongside the rent history's recent decline challenges any single-direction reading, while the income screen and survey burden remain a separate tension. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.79%, a cross-source screening ratio only. Redfin reports for-sale outcomes, not rental transactions, and none of these measures explains the other.
Several limits remain material. ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, and Redfin tracks resale rather than leases; no one series substitutes for another. Before applying the ZIP figures to a property, check the actual advertised rent and date, bedroom configuration, property type, included utilities, lease term, availability, and whether the address falls in the relevant geography. For a resale comparison, check the specific sold or listed properties, dates, physical characteristics, list changes, and transaction status. These verification steps are necessary because aggregate rent, burden, vacancy, and sale measures cannot describe a particular unit or establish future performance.
","findings":[{"body":"Exact same-month ZORI history records -0.97% over one year and -0.96% over three years, whereas the five-year change is +3.39%. This is a break from the longer growth path, not a forward view. Full history coverage improves record completeness, but volatility and maximum drawdown mean a single current index should be interpreted as a changing reference rather than a fixed market level.","title":"Recent rent direction breaks the longer path"},{"body":"At the current index, the $65,720 30% income screen sits below ACS median household income of $76,662. Yet 53.6% of surveyed ZCTA renter households report burden at or above the same threshold. The two measurements answer different questions: one is arithmetic using an index, while the other is a survey distribution for occupied renters. Neither is a qualification decision.","title":"Income screen and survey burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Modelled studio through four-bedroom estimates span $1,286 to $2,756 and are anchored to ZIP ZORI through the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents, listing medians, or rental comps. A unit's actual bedroom count, utility treatment, and lease terms may differ materially from the assumptions embedded in the scaled estimates.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show a rising sale median but a 6.3-month supply and sub-list average sale-to-list result. These for-sale observations do not measure rental deals. Their contrast with recent ZORI declines complicates a uniform reading, and the 3.79% rent-to-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rental reading"}],"risks":["Comparing the current Zillow index with ACS gross rent can create a misleading spread because one tracks blended asking rents and the other surveys occupied renter homes with selected utilities.","High historical variability and a prior drawdown limit confidence in a single current index point. The series records past movement, but does not define the rent, renewal, or availability of a particular unit.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates include sampling uncertainty. Housing-stock, vacancy, and burden aggregates therefore cannot establish conditions for any single address.","Redfin's rolling three-month figures describe homes offered and sold in the ZIP resale market. They are not rental transactions, and the cross-source annualized-rent-to-price screen omits property-specific terms and transaction details."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,643 figure is ZIP-level Zillow ZORI at the June 2026 endpoint. It represents a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a median lease payment, a measured bedroom-specific rent, or proof of what an available address will ask after utilities or lease terms are considered.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ZORI is an observed asking-rent index for the ZIP and blends rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The reported gap is therefore a source-universe difference, not direct evidence of a premium or discount for a particular unit.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI different from ACS gross rent or HUD FMR?"},{"a":"No. The $65,720 figure is obtained by annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index and applying a 30% share of household income. It is arithmetic rather than advice, underwriting, or an applicant qualification test. ACS burden data describe surveyed occupied renter households and cannot determine the affordability, approval, or cost of one household or address.","q":"Does the 30% income result show who can rent here?"},{"a":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP figures should be read only as for-sale resale evidence: prices, sales, marketing time, supply, inventory, and sale-to-list behavior. They are not rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by the median sold price creates a cross-source screening ratio that omits property-specific terms and cannot establish the economics or outcome of a purchase.","q":"How should the Redfin sale data and rent-to-price ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1132.581195},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1121.130168},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1102.645491},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1116.751706},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1132.037901},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1134.10762},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1133.711766},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1139.838474},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1159.740856},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1165.812741},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1163.233699},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1173.808125},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1161.770957},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1169.482989},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1147.489301},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1179.255954},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1182.831141},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1179.28939},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1161.318199},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1179.189962},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1200.61781},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1225.482738},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1190.677417},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1187.373484},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1204.97543},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1259.101451},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1286.452202},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1312.101169},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1343.274295},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1390.293815},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1429.177455},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1445.667005},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1459.205622},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1485.90047},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1552.645122},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1573.790142},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1609.652059},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1620.778346},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1629.397333},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1606.551587},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1602.561832},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1613.641785},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1631.416142},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1611.480293},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1632.775726},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1634.996592},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1647.701785},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1677.874856},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1686.250021},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1689.638559},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1684.181067},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1697.665987},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1707.914184},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1690.93808},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1683.190625},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1699.886072},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1701.223713},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1698.954667},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1684.328878},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1671.65737},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1669.169694},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1669.229985},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1687.811658},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1695.864399},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1698.380314},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1708.511751},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1713.057472},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1728.252302},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1711.008837},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1715.960571},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1709.085567},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1701.896946},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1685.426078},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1674.809548},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1674.234947},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1677.835249},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1666.494281},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1658.731479},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1653.496414},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1637.112059},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1642.854611},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1637.396844},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1642.286426},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1644.5308},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1652.681694},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1657.213434},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1647.381999},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1636.755407},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1640.174823},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1642.679291}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":90,"firstPeriod":"2019-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":90,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1658.731479,"endRent":1642.679291,"change":-0.009677387933625936,"cagr":-0.009677387933625936},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1690.93808,"endRent":1642.679291,"change":-0.028539654745962095,"cagr":-0.009605182387484201},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1390.293815,"endRent":1642.679291,"change":0.18153391267154562,"cagr":0.033925480209908265}},"maxDrawdown":-0.05294186207309903,"annualizedVolatility":0.04428547677853013,"consecutiveReturnCount":89}}