At the June 2026 reading, Zillow ZORI for 29150 was $1,316 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types at the ZIP level; it is not a quote for a particular available unit. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The strongest current tension is broad affordability: the 30% required-income screen produces $52,640 against matched-ZCTA median household income of $50,965. Annualized ZORI equals 31.0% of that median income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it does not determine household composition, lease terms, utility treatment, or a property-specific price.
Scope is especially important because ACS says something different. The ACS 2024 five-year survey places matched-ZCTA median gross rent at $983 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is a survey measure rather than an asking-rent index, so its lower level is not a contradiction or a current listing comp for ZORI. As wider rent context only, the City of Sumter city-scope value is $1,529.69, the Sumter County county-scope value is $1,516, and the Sumter, SC metro-scope value is $1,504. Those city, county, and metro figures frame the ZIP reading but cannot replace ZIP-level evidence.
Bedroom detail must remain explicitly modelled. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the supplied local ladder is $900 for a studio, $1,000 for one bedroom, $1,310 for two bedrooms, $1,570 for three bedrooms, and $1,920 for four bedrooms. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $904, $1,005, $1,316, $1,577, and $1,929, respectively. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, lease transactions, or evidence of what any owner actually charges. The close match around the two-bedroom rung reflects the scaling construction and does not validate an individual listing.
Looking backward, direct Zillow ZIP observations give a stable-growth pattern, but not a projection. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 4.88% over one year, 5.25% over three years, and 6.94% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, while the latest pace breaks from that path’s faster longer-horizon rate. History coverage was 99.2%, making the series relatively complete for the stated observation interval without overcoming index or source-scope limits. Annualized variability in monthly returns was 2.58%, which describes historical dispersion rather than a future range. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached -2.04%, recording prior declines. These measures support moderated confidence in a current snapshot rather than a forecast or investment conclusion.
Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs further separate pace from steadiness: the ZIP ranked 317 for momentum, 848 for stability, and 155 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. This rank spread places the past series more favorably on momentum and its blended measure than on stability. It is a discovery device based on backward-looking history, not a valuation, an outlook, or a probability of future rent change. Neither the ranks nor the stable-growth category removes the need to inspect the current index definition and the affordability gap.
The matched ZCTA survey describes 17,726 housing units, with 2,730 vacant, yielding a 15.4% vacancy rate. Among renter-occupied households, 48.6% reported gross-rent burden at or above 30% of income. These are survey-based household and stock measures, not a vacancy ledger or payment record for a particular unit. Vacancy should not be read as proof that a desired rental is available, and burden should not be read as proof of any tenant’s payment position. The broad household evidence instead adds context to the index-income arithmetic without resolving it.
The Redfin evidence is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, so it describes for-sale activity rather than rental transactions. Median sold price was $286,735, up 4.27% year over year, with 145 homes sold and a 52-day median marketing time. Inventory was 157 homes and months of supply stood at 3.3. Pricing signals stayed below full list on average, at a 97.26% sale-to-list ratio; 9.23% of sales closed above list. The rent/resale price screen is 5.51%, calculated as annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price. It is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property performance. The sale-price gain confirms concurrent positive rent and resale headlines, while the marketing and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple claim of uniformly tight conditions and do not resolve the rent-to-income tension.
No source here establishes a property-level rent, sales outcome, or household outcome. A property-level interpretation would require checking the address’s market mapping, the actual advertised rent and bedroom count, lease length, concessions, utility responsibility, availability date, and whether a sale record is a relevant closed comparison rather than an active listing. It would also require separating occupancy evidence from current availability and checking the sale’s listing terms against the ZIP resale summary. ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin answer different questions at different scopes and dates. The decisive question is which unit-specific records support the intended comparison after those definitions and boundaries have been preserved?
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is $1,316, a typical observed asking-rent index rather than a unit quote. The 30% arithmetic screen requires $52,640 of income, slightly above the matched-ZCTA median household income of $50,965. This comparison identifies a broad affordability tension, but it does not supply applicant underwriting, household expenses, or a prediction about payment behavior.","title":"Affordability screen exceeds the matched median-income benchmark"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth remained positive over each supplied horizon: 4.88% at one year, 5.25% at three years, and 6.94% at five years. The ordering shows deceleration in the latest pace, not a reversal of direction. High coverage supports use of the historical series, while its variability and drawdown keep the current value from being a certainty.","title":"Rent growth persisted but the latest pace was slower"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show price growth alongside a median sale price of $286,735, but marketing time and below-list average sale-to-list behavior temper the headline. The 5.51% annualized-rent-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen. It is not a rental transaction measure or a statement of property-level economics.","title":"Resale appreciation coexists with measured marketing friction"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA stock and burden data give household-level context: vacancy is aggregate, renter burden is survey-reported, and gross rent includes selected utilities. They cannot identify a currently available unit or establish what its occupant pays. The separate HUD ladder provides standardized bedroom scaling, but its estimates remain modelled rather than observed rents.","title":"Survey stock measures cannot identify a particular rental"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types into a ZIP-level index, so the figure may not match a unit’s bedroom count, lease duration, concessions, included utilities, or current availability.","ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, while ZCTA boundaries are statistical rather than USPS delivery ZIP boundaries; its gross-rent and burden results are not current listing evidence.","The vacancy and burden figures are aggregate survey measures. They cannot demonstrate that a specific home is vacant, that a particular tenant is burdened, or that an owner can obtain the index rent.","Redfin measures ZIP for-sale resales rather than rental transactions, and its rent-to-price calculation omits operating costs, financing, property condition, and deal terms; it cannot establish unit economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They answer different questions. Zillow ZORI aggregates typical observed asking rents across rental types at ZIP scope. ACS gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A lower ACS median therefore cannot be read as a current advertised rent or as proof that the ZORI reading is wrong.","q":"Why is the ACS rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The supplied bedroom amounts are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. The resulting ladder is useful for consistent scaling only; it is not a set of observed leases, transaction rents, or individual-unit quotes.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The positive same-month growth rates document historical direction, and the lower recent rate documents slower pace relative to longer horizons. Coverage indicates the observation interval is nearly complete. However, monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown show that the series has moved around its trend. None of these backward-looking measurements forecasts rent, price, or property performance.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current reading?"},{"a":"Redfin’s ZIP resale block directly measures the rolling-three-month for-sale market, including closed-sale pricing, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It does not provide rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screen; property-specific terms and economics require separate verification.","q":"How should the resale figures be used alongside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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