In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 29412 is $2,309 per month. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a record of signed leases or a bedroom-specific quote. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,881. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, making the match useful but not interchangeable. The asking index and the survey median consequently describe different rental universes; their gap should not be read as the rent of a particular home.
HUD’s FY2026 local bedroom ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative FMR/SAFMR standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with that ladder produces modelled monthly estimates, in ascending bedroom order from studio through four bedrooms, of $2,016, $2,103, $2,309, $2,873, and $3,306. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: HUD’s local bedroom relationships allocate a rental-type-blended ZIP asking-rent index. The ladder helps frame relative bedroom sizing, but it cannot establish an available unit’s condition, included utilities, concessions, or advertised price.
An arithmetic 30% required-income screen on the index produces $92,360 in annual income. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $101,509, placing the index-to-income screen at 27.3%. This is not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule: it combines a mixed asking-rent index with a household-wide median income, not a renter-specific budget. Separately, ACS reports that 2,444 renter households, or 53.5%, spend 30% or more of income on gross rent. These measures may coexist without contradiction because renter outcomes are distributed, while gross rent includes selected utilities; neither measure proves the burden of a specific unit or household.
Backward-looking Zillow history through June 1, 2026 gives the rent path a mixed reading, not a forecast or investment case. The exact same-month increase is 4.22% over one year, versus annualized changes of 3.77% over three years and 7.85% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms an upward move but breaks from the faster longer path. Annualized monthly-return variability measures 2.97%, which supports moderate rather than high confidence in one current index snapshot as a stable level. Separately, the maximum observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.48%, evidence of limited historical reversals rather than an absence of them. Coverage is 100%; transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 617 for momentum, 1,580 for stability, and 711 for balanced history. These ranks identify past patterns only.
Wider context makes the ZIP’s asking-rent level look higher, but does not substitute for ZIP evidence. The City of Charleston context rent is $2,245, Charleston County context rent is $2,156, and the Charleston–North Charleston, SC metro context rent is $2,066; each is a broader-scope context measure rather than a ZIP observation. Those named city, county, and metro values are useful benchmarks for the Zillow index only. They have different geographic composition from the ZIP and are not replacements for the matched ZCTA’s occupied-renter survey or HUD’s administrative standard. No context comparison establishes a local lease rate, household burden, or bedroom rent.
In the matched ZCTA, ACS records 18,413 housing units and 1,655 vacant units, a 9.0% vacancy rate. The stock is more heavily single-family than large multifamily, a composition point rather than a live inventory count. Vacancy is not proof that a particular dwelling is available, rentable, appropriately priced, or suitable for any household. Likewise, aggregate renter burden does not identify the terms of a current listing. The stock and vacancy evidence instead sets a limit on inference: survey counts can describe the area’s housing base, while current availability, lease terms, utility treatment, and unit condition require property-level evidence.
Direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence is a separate for-sale universe. It records a $624,859 median sold price, a 1.6% year-over-year price change, 237 homes sold, and 61 median days on market. Inventory was 271 homes with 3.5 months of supply, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.0%. These are resale liquidity and pricing observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is a 4.4% cross-source screening ratio only—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The recent rent increase is not mirrored by an equally rapid median resale-price rise, a tension that challenges any attempt to treat rent history and resale results as one market signal.
None of these sources resolves a property-level question by itself. Relevant checks are the actual advertised rent and lease date, verified bedroom count, address-to-ZIP assignment, included utilities and recurring fees, concessions, condition, occupancy or availability, and the specific sale/list record. The unit type must be matched with the rental types blended into ZORI, while any gross-rent comparison must be reconciled to its utility coverage. HUD remains an administrative benchmark, and the Redfin record remains tied to its ZIP resale window. ACS margins of error, survey timing, index construction, and source-geography mismatches limit precision. Does the particular address and lease offer fit these separate evidence definitions?
","findings":[{"body":"At $2,309, the current Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index. The matched ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,881 and includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes. This difference is informative about source definition and timing, not evidence that a specific available property commands the index level.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the survey median"},{"body":"The mechanical 30% screen requires $92,360 annual income against a $101,509 ZCTA median household income. Yet 53.5% of surveyed renter households report gross-rent burden at or above 30%. The first is a broad income comparison and the second is a renter-household distributional measure; neither is a qualification standard or an affordability finding for a particular applicant.","title":"The two affordability screens answer different questions"},{"body":"Through June 2026, one-year growth of 4.22% exceeded the annualized three-year rate of 3.77%, but trailed the five-year rate of 7.85%. Monthly-return variability of 2.97% and a 2.48% maximum drawdown argue for moderate confidence in the current snapshot. The rankings are backward-looking discovery tools, not forecasts.","title":"Recent rent growth continues but slows from the long path"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows a $624,859 median sold price, 1.6% annual price growth, 61 days on market, and 3.5 months of supply. Those for-sale conditions are not rental transactions. The 4.4% annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen and cannot be interpreted as a property yield or return.","title":"Resale evidence creates a separate market tension"}],"risks":["The Zillow, ACS, and HUD figures deliberately measure different populations, timing conventions, and rent concepts. Treating their differences as a building-level spread could misstate utilities, unit mix, or lease conditions.","The modelled bedroom values inherit ratios from an administrative HUD ladder. They do not measure listings or executed leases by bedroom, so property condition, fees, concessions, and availability can make the actual quote materially different.","ACS vacancy and rent-burden estimates are area-level survey measures with sampling uncertainty. Neither vacant counts nor burden prevalence confirms that a specific dwelling is rentable, affordable, unoccupied, or currently offered.","Redfin resale data reflect a rolling ZIP for-sale window, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. The screening ratio omits costs, financing, taxes, property characteristics, and timing, so it cannot describe a property-level return."],"qa":[{"a":"The $2,309 figure is a ZIP-level ZORI, or typical observed asking-rent index, for blended rental types. It is not a signed-lease database, a utility-inclusive survey median, or a direct quote for a stated bedroom count. Its June 2026 endpoint does not establish property-specific availability.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"The $92,360 result divides annualized ZORI by 30%, then compares it with the ZCTA median household income. It is a mechanical screen. ACS burden instead counts surveyed renter households with gross rent at least 30% of income, including selected utilities; renter distribution and survey universe differ.","q":"Why can the required-income screen and renter burden share point in different directions?"},{"a":"The listed studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled by applying local HUD relationships to the ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative benchmark, not an asking-rent measure. Therefore the estimates describe a proportional allocation framework and cannot verify any observed bedroom listing, lease, utility package, or concession.","q":"How should the bedroom ladder be interpreted?"},{"a":"Redfin reports rolling three-month ZIP for-sale outcomes, including sales, pricing, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results. It does not describe rental deals. Dividing annual ZORI by median sold price merely creates a cross-source screening ratio; missing property costs and different observation universes rule out interpreting it as a property-level rate of return.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to the rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small 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