At $1,369, the June 2026 Zillow ZORI for ZIP 29687 creates a split historical read. The exact same-month one-year increase is 2.34%, while annualized same-month changes are 2.81% over three years and 5.19% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, but its pace breaks from the faster multi-year pace. History is classified high variability: annualized monthly-return variability is 3.57%, and maximum drawdown is -2.86%. Coverage is 98.89%, based on 89 observations and 87 consecutive returns. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,215 for momentum, 2,300 for stability, and 1,879 for balanced performance, where lower is higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations; the variability warrants measured confidence in one current asking-rent snapshot.
Source scope matters before comparing the headline with household survey measures. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS 2024 five-year survey instead places median gross rent at $1,278 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, which is 7.12% below ZORI. Its survey universe is not currently advertised units. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a $1,256 administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; ZORI is 8.99% above that benchmark.
Bedroom detail is an allocation model, not a collection of observed ZIP rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,192 for a studio, $1,229 for one bedroom, $1,369 for two bedrooms, $1,706 for three bedrooms, and $2,067 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they inherit relative size steps from the local HUD ladder. The HUD schedule itself is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not evidence that an advertised home at any size asks that amount. A listing’s advertised rent need not match these estimates; the index and standard are different evidence universes.
Affordability signals describe different populations and should not be combined into a tenant-level conclusion. Applying a 30% screen arithmetically to current ZORI produces required annual income of $54,760; it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s $80,051 median household income makes the annualized index equal to 20.52% of that broad household benchmark, not a measure of any renter’s income. In ACS occupied renter-home data, 1,828 of 4,320 renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above 30%, a 42.31% share. That burden statistic includes selected utilities through gross rent and cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit, household, or lease.
The matched ACS ZCTA also shows a predominantly non-renter stock profile rather than a direct inventory of available listings. Of 18,966 housing units, 1,409 are vacant, a 7.43% vacancy rate; renter occupancy represents 24.61% of occupied homes. The structure mix includes 14,359 single-family units and 527 units in large multifamily structures. These counts characterize the statistical area’s stock and vacancy categories. They do not demonstrate asking rent, physical condition, turnover, concessions, or actual availability for any particular property, and the all-vacant measure cannot be treated as proof of a vacancy at a selected building.
Broader benchmarks reveal a large geographic spread within the supplied context. The Taylors city-context asking-rent figure is about $1,372, the Greenville County context asking-rent figure is $1,603, and the Greenville-Anderson, SC metro-context asking-rent figure is $1,570. The ZIP index is essentially aligned with the named city context and lower than the named county and metro contexts. Those city, county, and metro values are wider-area context only, not substitutes for ZIP observations or evidence about an individual listing. That comparison merely describes supplied benchmark levels; it does not establish why they differ or what any future listing or index will do.
Several limits remain after those comparisons. ZORI is an index rather than a quoted lease offer, ACS is a five-year survey, and HUD is a program standard; the national discovery ranks are transparent sorting tools rather than quality grades. For property-level use, check the advertised rent, exact bedroom count, lease term, included and excluded utilities, recurring fees, concessions, availability date, and whether the unit’s delivery location falls within the relevant market label. Separately verify the property’s own vacancy or availability rather than applying area vacancy data to it. The decisive question is whether the specific unit’s all-in advertised terms align with the applicable modelled bedroom estimate rather than a broad market indicator.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest one-year ZORI gain remains positive at 2.34%, yet it trails the annualized three-year and five-year changes of 2.81% and 5.19%. With 3.57% annualized monthly-return variability and a -2.86% maximum drawdown, the current value is a useful reading but not a low-noise signal. The high-variability classification supports treating the historical path as descriptive rather than predictive.","title":"Momentum persists, but the pace has cooled"},{"body":"Zillow’s $1,369 ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. ACS’s $1,278 median gross rent is a five-year survey value for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s $1,256 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a program benchmark by bedroom. Their gaps are informative only after retaining those separate universes; none is a direct quote for a specific available unit.","title":"Rent figures answer different questions"},{"body":"The bedroom series is modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. It estimates $1,192 for a studio and rises to $2,067 for four bedrooms, with $1,369 assigned to two bedrooms. Those values are scaled ZIP estimates, not observed asking rents by bedroom. An actual unit should be evaluated from its own advertised terms, bedroom count, and included charges.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"ACS reports a 42.31% gross-rent burden rate at or above 30% among renter households, while the ZORI-based screen equates to $54,760 in annual income. The ZCTA stock has 18,966 units and a 7.43% vacancy rate, but neither area statistic establishes conditions for an individual building. The ZIP’s rent sits close to Taylors context and below named county and metro context figures.","title":"Area affordability and stock remain broad indicators"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR cover different universes, time frames, and rent concepts, so a gap between them cannot establish a listing’s price or tenant cost.","The historical path is labeled high variability and includes a drawdown; annualized changes and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, quality assessments, or investment recommendations.","ACS ZCTA estimates are five-year survey results with reported margins of error, while a ZCTA is statistical geography rather than an exact USPS delivery ZIP boundary.","Area vacancy, renter burden, and housing-stock counts cannot verify availability, condition, concessions, charges, or affordability for a particular property, household, or lease application on any date."],"qa":[{"a":"The comparison is not like-for-like. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is an asking-rent index spanning blended rental types, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference can identify a scope gap, but it cannot show that a particular available home is overpriced, underpriced, or utility-inclusive.","q":"Why is the ACS rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The HUD ladder gives relative bedroom steps from an administrative standard, while ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. Therefore the estimates support size-adjusted comparison, but they do not observe a unit’s advertised rent, quality, utility treatment, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents?"},{"a":"The $54,760 figure is simply twelve months of the $1,369 index divided by 30%. It creates a standardized arithmetic comparison. It is not a suggested income target, legal requirement, screening policy, or statement about whether a household can qualify. The ACS burden share separately summarizes occupied renter households reporting gross rent at or above that threshold.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"First distinguish ZIP-level data from the matched ZCTA and wider city, county, and metro context. Then inspect the individual listing’s advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, utilities, recurring fees, concessions, availability date, and property-specific availability. Area vacancy and burden measures describe aggregates; they cannot substitute for the selected unit’s current terms.","q":"What should be verified before comparing a property with these figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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