In ZIP 29910, the central signal is deceleration rather than a clean continuation of the longer rent path. At the Zillow history endpoint in June 2026, direct ZIP ZORI observations show exact same-month annualized changes of 2.1% over one year, 0.4% over three years, and 6.2% over five years. The latest year is firmer than the three-year result but breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger five-year rate. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.6%, and maximum drawdown is -3.7%. Coverage is 99.2%, built from 121 observations. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,781 for momentum, 2,306 for stability, and 2,365 for balanced performance; lower is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The high variability means the current index reading deserves less directional confidence than a smooth, stable history would support.
At that endpoint, Zillow ZIP ZORI is $2,168 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is an index reference rather than a quote for a specified available home. For wider context only, the Bluffton city-context rent is $2,233.45, the Beaufort County county-context rent is $2,019, and the Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC metro-context rent is $1,980. The ZIP index lies below the city context and above the county and metro contexts, but those wider values should not substitute for the direct ZIP observation or be read as property-level comparable rents.
Source boundaries explain why nearby-looking rent figures should remain separate. The five-digit label 29910 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $2,073, with a $125 margin of error at the 90% level. It describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas the ZIP ZORI index is asking-rent oriented; ZORI is 4.6% above this ACS median, not proof that like-for-like rents differ by that amount. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,679, making ZORI 29.1% higher. That HUD figure is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The bedroom detail is a scaling exercise, not a set of observed ZIP bedroom rents. Using the local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,888 for a studio, $1,978 for one bedroom, $2,168 for two bedrooms, $2,599 for three bedrooms, and $3,206 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The ladder preserves HUD's local bedroom relationship while anchoring its level to ZORI, so it can organize a bedroom comparison but cannot establish a listing's actual bedroom price, condition, utilities, lease terms, or availability.
Affordability evidence points to an aggregate screen and an aggregate burden measure, not household outcomes. Applying the 30% screen to the current ZIP index yields required annual income of $86,720; this is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $98,912, but that area statistic does not identify a prospective renter's income. In the ACS occupied-renter universe, 2,450 of 4,791 renter households, or 51.1%, were classified as rent burdened at or above the threshold. Survey burden cannot demonstrate that any particular available unit is unaffordable or that a particular household will be burdened.
The stock picture also resists a simple availability inference. The matched ACS ZCTA has 22,774 housing units and 1,718 vacant units, a 7.5% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 385 are classified as for rent and 1,173 as seasonal. Renter-occupied homes make up 22.8% of occupied homes. The structure mix records 18,478 single-family units and 891 units in large multifamily structures. These categories describe survey housing stock, not a live inventory: vacancy neither confirms an advertised unit exists nor proves its rent, bedroom count, eligibility, or move-in timing.
Each figure has a distinct practical limit. Relevant property-level checks include the listing's current advertised asking rent, actual bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, fees, availability date, and address. The address's applicable delivery ZIP should also be compared with the matched ZCTA, because the statistical ZCTA and USPS delivery ZIP can differ. ACS is occupied-home context, HUD is an administrative standard, and the city, county, and metro figures are wider context only. Historical coverage supports the record of past observations, but volatility and drawdown limit confidence in extrapolating a current snapshot. Does the specific property evidence align with the index reference and the assumptions behind the bedroom and affordability screens?
","findings":[{"body":"Direct Zillow history through June 2026 shows exact same-month annualized ZORI growth of 2.1% over one year, compared with 0.4% over three years and 6.2% over five years. The near-term result is stronger than the middle horizon but materially slower than the longest horizon. This is a retrospective pattern, not a forecast.","title":"Latest growth is slower than the long-run path"},{"body":"The $2,168 Zillow ZIP index is an asking-rent-oriented measure, while the matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent of $2,073 is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR of $1,679 is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Their dollar gaps should not be treated as interchangeable market quotes.","title":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards are distinct"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom figures of $1,888, $1,978, $2,168, $2,599, and $3,206 are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents. They provide a consistent relative ladder, but they cannot confirm the price or terms of a particular listed unit.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from the HUD ladder"},{"body":"ACS reports that 51.1% of renter households are rent burdened at the threshold, while the matched ZCTA vacancy rate is 7.5%. Those measures describe survey aggregates. Seasonal vacancies and vacant-for-rent classifications do not verify that a currently advertised home is available, comparable, affordable to a given household, or offered at the ZIP index level.","title":"Aggregate burden and vacancy do not establish unit availability"}],"risks":["High-variability history, together with 3.6% annualized monthly-return variability and a -3.7% maximum drawdown, makes it risky to assume the latest ZORI level represents a stable short-run path.","ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR differ in scope, rental concept, and administrative purpose. Comparing their dollar levels without preserving those distinctions can misstate a property's asking-rent position.","The 7.5% ZCTA vacancy rate includes 1,173 seasonal and 385 for-rent units, so it cannot be treated as a count of presently available, comparable rentals or used to infer terms at a specific address.","The ZCTA is statistically defined and not the same as a delivery ZIP. An address, listing date, utility package, bedroom count, and lease terms can change the relevance of every aggregate comparison."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. These sources address different rental universes, so their dollar differences provide context but do not identify a like-for-like unit rent.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS gross rent and HUD FMR/SAFMR?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom values are modelled estimates produced by scaling the ZIP ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They should be described as modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. A listed studio, one-bedroom, or larger home may differ because the model does not observe its condition, utilities, lease terms, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for ZIP 29910?"},{"a":"No. The $86,720 figure is the arithmetic annual income associated with devoting 30% of income to the current $2,168 ZIP index level. It is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS median household income and rent-burden statistics are area aggregates and do not identify a specific household's income or housing costs.","q":"Does the required income figure determine whether an applicant qualifies?"},{"a":"Check the property's current advertised asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, fees, available date, and address. Compare the address's delivery ZIP with the matched ZCTA because they are not identical geographic concepts. Then treat ZORI as an index reference, HUD as a standard, and ACS as occupied-home survey context rather than as a unit-specific quote.","q":"What property-level checks are needed before applying these ZIP figures to a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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