Backward-looking history, rather than a projection, is the central tension for this ZIP. Through June 2026, Zillow's direct ZIP ZORI rose 2.66% on an exact same-month one-year basis after a 0.35% annualized decline over three years, while the five-year annualized change remained positive at 2.19%. The recent direction therefore breaks from the shorter decline but remains consistent with the longer positive path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.54%, and maximum drawdown was -4.23%, with 100% history coverage. The packet's national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,720 for momentum, 769 for stability, and 1,286 for balanced performance, where lower is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Variability and drawdown warrant bounded confidence in one current rent snapshot: it is an index observation, not a stable quote for an individual home.
The current direct ZIP ZORI is $1,893 per month. It is Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, so it summarizes listings rather than a lease-specific rent. For wider context only, the Brookhaven city context rent is about $1,884, the Dekalb County context rent is $1,781, and the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA metro context rent is $1,854. The ZIP index stands above each of those wider context readings, but city, county, and metro context cannot set the rent of a particular property in the ZIP. Nor do they identify matching building type, bedroom count, utility package, availability date, or concessions. Their useful role is to locate the index in wider geographies while preserving the ZIP-level source as the direct market observation.
The apparent proximity to the survey benchmark should not be treated as interchangeable evidence. In ACS 2024 five-year data, median gross rent for the matched 30319 ZCTA is $1,932; ZORI is 2.0% lower. The five-digit label is Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than a current asking-rent series. ZORI instead reflects typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. Thus, the near levels can frame a comparison, but they do not establish equal rents, equal utility treatment, equal unit mix, or equal timing.
Bedroom detail is most useful as a transparent scaling exercise, not as direct observation. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,647 for a studio, $1,727 for one bedroom, $1,893 for two bedrooms, $2,269 for three bedrooms, and $2,709 for four bedrooms. They scale ZIP ZORI using the supplied FY2026 local HUD ladder, whose two-bedroom administrative standard is $2,620. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the local ladder can be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve HUD bedroom proportions while anchoring the level to blended ZORI. Actual asking rent can still differ with utilities, fees, lease structure, unit condition, and the characteristics of a particular home.
At the index level, the arithmetic 30% required-income screen yields $75,720 in annual income. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $130,648, placing that screen below an aggregate household benchmark. Neither result is advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of what an individual renter earns or pays; income definitions, household composition, and utility treatment are not aligned across these measures. The occupancy survey supplies a different pressure indicator: 3,573 of 8,845 renter households, or 40.4%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above the screen threshold. This burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households, not a particular apartment, household, or lease, and it cannot establish whether any listing is affordable.
Housing stock is an area-level count rather than a live listings file. The matched ZCTA has 22,097 housing units and 2,219 vacant units, a 10.0% vacancy rate. Its stock includes 11,365 single-family units and 7,048 units in large multifamily structures. Among vacant units, 873 are classified as for rent. These ACS status counts are not real-time inventory, and the for-rent classification does not show that a specific home is available, priced competitively, habitable, or suitable. The unit mix also does not identify the rental type behind a ZORI observation. Vacancy and the asking-rent index are separate evidence streams, so neither demonstrates bargaining conditions or availability for a particular property.
The report is best used to organize questions, not to substitute for a property record. Confirm the live asking rent and its effective date, bedroom count, included utilities, mandatory fees, lease length, concessions, condition, and actual availability. Verify whether the address belongs in the relevant delivery area and Zillow market geography before relying on a matched ZCTA statistic. Compare a quote with genuinely like-for-like currently offered homes rather than treating a HUD standard, an ACS median, or blended ZORI as a property quote. Also distinguish a vacancy classification from on-site inventory and an area burden statistic from an applicant's finances. The unresolved decision point is concrete: what is the all-in rent for the specific unit under the proposed lease terms?
","findings":[{"body":"Through June 2026, Zillow history shows a 2.66% exact same-month gain over one year after a 0.35% annualized decline over three years; the five-year annualized change is 2.19%. This is a recent recovery signal in the observed record, not a forecast. Full coverage supports a continuous historical series, while the recorded drawdown means a current index value should not be treated as a fixed property price.","title":"Recent rebound against a mixed longer history"},{"body":"ZORI and ACS line up numerically only in a broad sense. ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across blended rental types; ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is statistical, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Consequently, their proximity is a cross-check between distinct evidence universes, not validation of a listing rent or lease payment.","title":"Three rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"Each bedroom figure is modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI level. The resulting studio-through-four-bedroom range is useful for a consistent comparison across sizes, but it is not observed rent by bedroom. HUD FMR/SAFMR serves administrative program purposes and is bedroom specific; its ZIP SAFMR or county-derived provenance must remain distinct from current listing evidence.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"The 30% income screen and the ACS burden rate answer separate questions. The first is arithmetic based on the index level, while the second reports how surveyed occupied renter households allocate gross rent. Housing-unit vacancy is also an area-wide status count. None of these measures establishes a particular applicant's eligibility, a home's live availability, or the all-in price after fees and utilities.","title":"Affordability and vacancy remain aggregate screens"}],"risks":["ZORI is an index of typical observed asking rents across blended rental types, so it can diverge from a specific home's advertised price, concessions, fees, utilities, condition, or lease term.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year occupied-household survey timing, utility treatment, and margins of error differ from current listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, not observed asking rent; scaling ZORI with that ladder creates a modelled comparison that cannot verify the rent of any bedroom type.","Area vacancy and rent-burden measures describe aggregates, not a property's availability, affordability, quality, or bargaining position; confirm live inventory, total charges, and eligibility terms directly."],"qa":[{"a":"The current ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index constructed across blended rental types. It is useful as a market-level listing signal at its stated date, but it does not measure the rent, fees, concessions, utilities, availability, or lease terms of an individual home. A direct property quote requires those property-level facts.","q":"What does the current Zillow number represent?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index. The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing, population, rent concept, and geography mean closeness does not make the measures interchangeable.","q":"Why can ACS gross rent differ from ZORI even when their levels are close?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard and not asking rent. The calculations provide a consistent size ladder, but a specific listing may differ because of actual utilities, fees, condition, lease terms, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed market rents?"},{"a":"Verify the live asking rent, effective date, bedroom count, included utilities, recurring mandatory fees, lease length, concessions, condition, and availability for the specific unit. Confirm the address geography as well. Vacancy and burden statistics are aggregates, so they cannot establish an individual unit's pricing, availability, affordability, or applicant qualification.","q":"What should be verified before using these area figures for a property comparison?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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