The central tension in 31404 is a current asking-rent retreat against a still-positive multiyear record. The five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for the ZIP was $1,837, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The exact same-month one-year change was a 1.3% decline, breaking from backward-looking annualized gains of 2.9% over the prior three years and 7.1% over the prior five years. These are observed index changes, not a forecast, investment view, or claim about an individual listing.
The for-sale record supports the recent-softness side of that tension, but it remains an entirely separate evidence universe. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions, shows a $259,941 median sold price, down 13.4%, with 103 homes sold and a 70-day median marketing time. It also records 194 homes of inventory, 5.7 months of supply, a 96.2% average sale-to-list ratio, and 8.0% of homes sold above list; these are resale liquidity signals. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals an 8.5% cross-source screening ratio only—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sale-price decline and current rent retreat align directionally without establishing causation, while jointly challenging any simple extension of the longer rent rise.
Measurement completeness does not eliminate path risk. The history has 100% coverage across 121 monthly observations through the stated endpoint, providing a full record for the calculations. Monthly ZORI returns annualize to 3.7% variability, so its high-variability classification means a reader should place less confidence in any one current index snapshot, despite complete coverage. The historical maximum drawdown reached a 3.6% decline from a preceding peak, evidence of a realized pullback within the series. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,078 for momentum, 2,414 for stability, and 2,574 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These ranks organize historical patterns only; they do not rank future outcomes.
An ACS comparison changes the question rather than validating the ZORI print. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, median gross rent is $1,276 with a $61 margin of error. That survey covers occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. ZORI’s current asking index sits 44.0% above the ACS measure, but the gap may reflect timing, rental mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment rather than a contradiction. ACS median gross rent is not an asking-rent comp, and ZORI is not a survey median of paid gross rent. Keeping these source universes separate prevents the comparison from being mistaken for a direct pricing spread.
Income and burden evidence gives the ZORI-versus-ACS gap a second, carefully limited frame. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $53,303, with a $3,854 margin of error. Applying the 30% income share to the ZIP asking-rent index mechanically produces $73,480 in required annual income, and the annualized asking amount equals 41.4% of the reported median household income. This required-income screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports 3,201 of 6,209 renter homes burdened at or above that share, or 51.6%. An area burden statistic does not identify a current renter’s circumstances or prove that a particular unit is affordable.
Bedroom detail is a modelling exercise rather than a new set of transactions. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the supplied FY2026 local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,591 for a studio, $1,676 for one bedroom, $1,837 for two bedrooms, $2,444 for three bedrooms, and $2,785 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,680. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local ladder supplies the scaling relationship. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they cannot establish the lease terms, inclusions, or price of an available unit.
Housing stock and vacancy offer composition, not proof of listing-level supply. The matched ZCTA contains 14,217 housing units, has a 12.2% vacancy rate, and is 49.8% renter occupied among occupied homes. Its reported structure mix includes 9,977 single-family units and 948 units in large multifamily buildings. These counts contextualize the mix behind aggregate rent and tenure measures, but they do not tie a property to either category. The supplied for-rent, for-sale, and seasonal vacancy categories are area aggregates rather than a live availability feed. Vacancy cannot prove that a particular unit is vacant, rentable on a chosen date, or offered at the ZIP index.
For wider-context comparison only, the Savannah city rent context is $1,807, the Chatham County rent context is $1,781, and the Savannah, GA metro rent context is $1,820. Each is explicitly a city, county, or metro scope rather than a substitute ZIP observation; none can turn an ACS survey figure, a HUD standard, or resale evidence into a unit quote. The unresolved property-level fields are the actual lease ask and concessions, bedroom count, utility treatment, property type and condition, current availability, and comparable sales with their listing and closing dates. Which of those address-specific facts materially departs from the separate area-level rent, affordability, stock, and resale screens?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI at $1,837 is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, not a unit quote. Its one-year decline contrasts with positive three- and five-year same-month annualized history, so the newest direction breaks from the longer observed climb. Complete history coverage makes the record usable for review, but the high-variability designation and recorded drawdown argue against treating one month as definitive.","title":"The recent rent signal is a break, not a continuation"},{"body":"ACS gross rent, household income, and burden are survey estimates for the matched ZCTA’s occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. They are not interchangeable with Zillow asking rent, HUD standards, or a specific household’s budget. The required-income figure is a 30% arithmetic screen. Burden and vacancy should be read as area-level conditions rather than proof that any given unit is affordable or available.","title":"Affordability evidence requires source separation"},{"body":"The bedroom series is calculated by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. It delivers a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom comparison, but it is not a set of observed bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than market asking rent. Any actual unit may differ because the report does not supply its lease terms, utility charges, condition, or availability.","title":"Bedroom amounts are ladder-scaled models"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation is entirely a for-sale/resale lens. Falling median sold price, inventory, marketing time, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes describe resale liquidity, not rental deals. Its annualized-rent-to-price figure is simply a cross-source screening ratio. The simultaneous softness in recent rent and sale evidence is a tension against the longer rent history, not a causal finding or return estimate.","title":"Resale liquidity creates a separate tension"}],"risks":["The matched ZCTA is only a statistical approximation to a delivery ZIP, so ACS population, income, household, stock, vacancy, and burden figures may not describe every address marketed under 31404.","ZORI is a blended asking-rent index and the bedroom values are ladder-scaled models. Neither source establishes an executable asking rent, concession package, utility responsibility, or final lease amount for an individual unit.","A complete historical series reduces missing-data concern, but high variability and the drawdown show that backward-looking rent movement can make a single current index observation less decisive than it appears.","Redfin reports resale observations rather than rentals, and its rent-to-price screen excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, property condition, lease terms, and transaction-specific differences; it cannot establish a property outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The 31404 label serves two matching roles in this packet: Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The ZCTA is a statistical area and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow data are ZIP index observations, whereas ACS data are a matched-area five-year survey.","q":"What geography does the report actually cover?"},{"a":"They belong to deliberately separate universes. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Different timing, rental mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment mean the comparison is descriptive, not a validation test.","q":"Why do current asking rent and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure is a modelled monthly estimate produced by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates should therefore not be read as measured rents, transaction data, or quotes available for a specific apartment.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP data establish recent for-sale conditions such as price, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. They do not report rental transactions. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only and omits the property-level details needed to characterize any actual home.","q":"What can the Redfin resale evidence establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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