At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 31405’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) was $1,674 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a transaction price or a single-property quote. Its exact same-month annualized changes were -3.53% over one year, +0.68% over three years, and +5.67% over five years. The latest decline therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the positive longer path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.85%, maximum drawdown was -3.70%, and coverage was 98.89%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,684 for momentum, 2,515 for stability, and 2,832 for balanced performance, where lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations; the high-variability designation means one current index snapshot merits measured confidence. The series can benchmark market movement, but it does not reveal changes in the mix of listed homes.
Relative price is the immediate cross-market tension. The ZIP asking index sits below the Savannah city context rent of $1,806.68, the Chatham County context rent of $1,781, and the Savannah, GA metro context rent of $1,820. Each comparator is a wider geographic context, not a ZIP observation or a substitute for a listing in this ZIP. The directional gap holds against all three scales, but it does not say why the gap exists or which unit type drives it. It is particularly important not to blend those area-wide benchmarks with ZORI’s mixed rental-type construction, because their main use here is comparative context. The comparison is a location-scale reference, not an explanation of tenant demand, property quality, or landlord behavior.
Source definitions explain why the current readings should not be treated as interchangeable. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,492, including selected utilities, while the current ZORI level is 12.2% higher. That survey covers occupied renter homes; it is not an asking-rent index. In this packet, the five-digit 31405 label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Separately, the FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,680. HUD’s bedroom-specific administrative standard is not asking rent; ZORI is 0.36% below the two-bedroom HUD reference. Different populations, included costs, and construction rules can create legitimate gaps without demonstrating error in any series.
Bedroom detail is available only as a modelled translation, not as observed bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,450 for a studio, $1,528 for one bedroom, $1,674 for two bedrooms, $2,227 for three bedrooms, and $2,538 for four bedrooms. These figures preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring it to the current ZIP index. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and cannot establish what a particular building, lease, amenity package, or utility arrangement will ask. The ladder is useful for a consistent size comparison only. It can show relative sizing at the ZIP level, not an observed distribution of rents within any bedroom category.
Income and burden provide a separate household screen, not a pricing verdict. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $65,710 with a $3,699 margin of error. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current asking index implies $66,960 in required annual income, or $1,250 above that median; equivalently, the index is 30.6% of the reported median income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS survey estimates that 3,635 of 7,274 renter households, or 50.0%, pay 30% or more toward rent. The burden result reflects surveyed renter households across the ZCTA and should be read with its stated sampling uncertainty. None establishes a particular unit’s cost burden.
The stock data show a sizeable settled housing base rather than a unit-by-unit availability list. The ZCTA has 17,059 housing units and an 11.0% vacancy rate. Single-family units outnumber large multifamily units, and occupied homes include both owner and renter households. Vacancies are separately recorded for rent, sale, and seasonal use, but those aggregate categories do not prove that a vacant home is currently marketed, suitable, affordable, or offered at the index level. Nor can the vacancy measure identify concessions, lease duration, bedroom count, or selected utilities. It is a useful capacity indicator, yet its categories do not translate directly into active listings or lease-ready inventory. Housing stock and vacancy describe the survey area’s composition, not the terms of a specific rental.
The remaining limits are operational. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year occupied-household survey, and HUD is an administrative standard, so none verifies a property’s current quoted rent. A property-level review should match the advertised address to the stated ZIP market, confirm the observation date and bedroom count, read the lease term and required recurring charges, and identify which utilities are included. It should also distinguish a landlord’s actual asking rent from the modelled ladder and from survey gross rent. These checks preserve the separate evidence universes rather than treating a broader context or administrative benchmark as a unit quote. The principal unresolved question is whether the advertised unit’s complete monthly cost and configuration actually correspond to the comparison being made.
","findings":[{"body":"The history series presents a split signal: the latest same-month change is negative, while the multi-year annualized path remains positive. Its high-variability classification, drawdown, and discovery ranks make the latest reading informative but not definitive. These are historical index measurements through the stated endpoint, not a forecast of future rent movement or an investment signal.","title":"Recent direction interrupts the longer history"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. ZORI tracks typical observed asks across rental types; ACS summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The common ZIP/ZCTA label is a geographic match in this packet, not proof that a survey estimate, a market index, and a property listing measure the same thing.","title":"Comparable labels do not create comparable rents"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-level ZORI. They provide a coherent relative size pattern for studio through four-bedroom comparisons, but no evidence says those are measured rents for a given bedroom type. Building mix, included utilities, lease terms, and individual listing details can differ from the modelled values.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a scaled scenario, not market observation"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s vacancy, renter burden, housing composition, and income estimates describe aggregates with survey uncertainty. They cannot establish that an available property is affordable to a particular household, is offered for rent, or carries a specific all-in cost. The decision-critical bridge is the advertised unit’s address, date, bedroom count, lease charges, and utility treatment.","title":"Vacancy and burden require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent measure. Its high historical variability and recent decline mean it should not be read as a guaranteed quote, trend continuation, or forecast for any individual rental.","The ACS geography is a Census ZCTA, a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Its occupied-household, utility-inclusive gross-rent universe differs materially from both current asks and a specific address.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZORI and HUD relationships. It can misstate a property’s actual asking rent when its bedroom classification, utility package, lease duration, or charges differ.","Aggregate vacancy categories and renter-burden estimates cannot prove active availability, tenant eligibility, concessions, unit condition, or complete monthly cost. Sampling uncertainty further limits precision for household-level conclusions."],"qa":[{"a":"It is the supplied ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It is useful as a current market reference and as the basis for the historical series, but it is neither a signed-lease transaction measure nor a quote for a specific apartment or house.","q":"What does the Zillow ZORI figure measure in this report?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. ZORI instead measures typical current observed asking rent at the ZIP level. The shared label enables the packet’s geographic match, but the statistical area and source universes are not identical.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the Zillow index?"},{"a":"No. The estimates are modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, which preserves a bedroom-size relationship rather than observing listings by bedroom. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey; confirm an actual unit’s bedroom classification, quoted rent, charges, and utilities separately.","q":"Are the displayed bedroom estimates measured rents?"},{"a":"It converts a monthly index into an annual income benchmark under a stated arithmetic ratio and places it beside ACS household income and burden data. It does not give advice, determine whether an applicant qualifies, or establish a household’s affordability. Confirm complete lease costs and utility inclusion for the advertised property before comparing it with the screen.","q":"What can the 30% required-income screen answer?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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