The central tension in 31406 is that the current Zillow reading has stopped echoing its own longer run. At $1,565 in June 2026, the ZIP-level ZORI posted an exact same-month 1-year increase of only 0.18%, after annualized same-month gains of 4.03% across 3 years and 8.31% across 5 years. This is backward-looking measurement, not a projection or an investment conclusion. ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is neither a lease-transaction average nor a measure of every available unit. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin observation adds a for-sale counterpoint rather than a rent comparable. Its ZIP median sold price was $340,223, 13.86% lower than a year earlier. The resale sample recorded 119 homes sold, 54 median days on market, 159 homes of inventory, and 4 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.84%, while 18.98% of sales were above list. Those signals describe ZIP resale liquidity and pricing only, not rental transactions or property economics. A price decline, measured marketing time, and below-list average can coexist with the rent index’s near-flat recent move; together they challenge any claim that the older rent-growth pace is being confirmed by the current for-sale evidence.
Affordability requires a separate ACS lens. In the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,392; this is an estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It sat 12.4% below the Zillow index, a difference that may arise from the survey’s occupied-home universe, utility treatment, and timing rather than a conflict between sources. The arithmetic 30% screen translates the current index into $62,600 of annual income needed. That figure is below the ZCTA median household income of $67,120, but it is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. It simply frames a ZIP-level median-income comparison.
Distribution and stock complicate that median-income screen. ACS estimates 5,719 renter-occupied homes in the ZCTA, of which 2,718, or 47.5%, had gross-rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. This is an area-level survey estimate, not proof of a specific household’s budget or a particular unit’s utility bill. The same profile counts 15,343 housing units and a 7.5% vacancy rate. Its structure mix includes 11,065 single-family units and 986 units in large multifamily buildings. Those counts convey the area’s stock composition, but vacancy does not establish that a given home is available, competitively priced, or suitable for a renter.
Bedroom figures should not be mistaken for observed bedroom rents. Scaling the aggregate ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,355 for a studio, $1,428 for one bedroom, $1,565 for two, $2,082 for three, and $2,373 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured rents. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,680, placing the modelled two-bedroom figure at 93.2% of that standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its role here is to shape the ladder, not to supply rental comparables.
Wider-area comparisons set context, not substitute benchmarks. In the same Zillow context, Savannah city’s typical asking-rent index was $1,807, Chatham County’s typical asking-rent index was $1,781, and the Savannah, GA metro typical asking-rent index was $1,820. Each geography is broader than the ZIP market and each sits above its current index, but those differences do not identify a property’s rent or indicate movement between areas. The ZIP’s lower index is therefore a scale comparison within one asking-rent source, not evidence on city, county, or metro lease terms for a specific bedroom or building.
History quality changes how much weight a reader can place on that one rent snapshot. The direct Zillow ZIP series has 100% coverage; annualized monthly ZORI-return variability reaches 4.33%, which supports the supplied high-variability classification and means a current level should be read with less confidence than a smooth path would warrant. Separately, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 3.07%, documenting a prior reversal within the observed history. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,529 for momentum, 2,713 for stability, and 2,399 for balance, with lower ranks stronger. These are descriptive history measurements only, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Limits remain material because the Zillow index, the ACS survey, HUD standard, and Redfin sales series answer different questions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price is 5.52%, but that is solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-income measure. Applying any ZIP statistic to a home would still require a property-level check of current advertised rent, bedroom count, property type, lease length, concessions, availability date, and which utilities are included. For a sale comparison, individual sold records, list histories, condition, and the relationship between the exact property and the ZIP boundary remain untested. The unresolved question is whether those property facts align with the broad signals, rather than whether one area-wide figure can decide them.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,565, up only 0.18% from the same month a year earlier. That latest reading breaks from the reported annualized three- and five-year increases. Because ZORI is a blended, typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, it describes its index path rather than a guaranteed lease price, an executed lease average, or an outlook.","title":"Recent asking-rent momentum stalled"},{"body":"The matched ACS ZCTA five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,392 and includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes, a universe distinct from Zillow’s asking index. Its estimate that 47.5% of renter households were at or above the burden threshold describes area-level distribution, not a particular household. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"ACS adds a distinct affordability and burden lens"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation recorded a $340,223 median sold price, down 13.86% from a year earlier, alongside 119 homes sold and four months of supply. It therefore provides a for-sale-market tension with the ZIP rent history, not a rental comp. The result is confined to resale price and liquidity signals; it says nothing about executed rents or property-specific economics.","title":"Resale evidence challenges the older rent-growth path"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled ladder creates modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents: $1,355 for a studio through $2,373 for four bedrooms. The local two-bedroom model equals the ZIP ZORI, while the HUD FMR benchmark is higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative standard, so the ladder organizes the aggregate index by bedroom size without converting it into live rental comparables.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not measured"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index can move differently from live listings for a particular property type, bedroom count, condition, lease term, or concession package; it is not a unit-level rent quote.","ACS ZCTA estimates summarize occupied renter homes over five years and include selected utilities. Sampling uncertainty, statistical geography, and the distinction from a USPS delivery ZIP limit direct comparison with a current asking-rent index.","The historical series is categorized high variability, and its past changes, drawdown, and discovery ranks are descriptive. They cannot determine future asking rents, future resale prices, or performance for any individual property.","Redfin’s ZIP resale series records for-sale activity, not rental transactions. Median sold price and sale-to-list indicators cannot establish a property’s operating expenses, rent collection, tenant demand, or any property-specific financial outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index covering a blended set of rental types in Zillow’s ZIP market. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical and not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so timing, universe, utility treatment, and geography can differ.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI exceed ACS median gross rent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the aggregate ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The resulting estimates organize the index by size; they do not measure current asking rents or executed rents for those bedroom classes.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed local rents?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation: sold-price, sales-volume, days-on-market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list indicators. It can show whether sales evidence presents a tension with the rent index’s path. It is not rental transaction evidence, a rent comparable set, or a basis for property-level operating results.","q":"What does the Redfin result contribute to rental analysis?"},{"a":"The 30% calculation expresses the annual income mathematically associated with paying the current index at that share; it is not advice, underwriting, or a qualification threshold. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year measurements, volatility, drawdown, coverage, and national ranks are all backward-looking descriptors. They inform how cautiously to read the snapshot, not future rent or sale performance.","q":"How should the 30% screen and rent history be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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