June 2026 puts ZIP 32034’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) at $2,552 per month, after a 13.24% one-year advance. This five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is consequently a current market index, not a quote for a particular listing, a lease executed by a tenant, or a measured bedroom rent. The central reading begins with an asking-rent measure that has accelerated sharply, while the household-income and occupied-renter evidence calls for careful separation of who and what each source actually observes.
Viewed backward rather than forward, the exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 13.24% over one year, 7.05% over three years, and 9.39% over five years. The latest pace therefore confirms a longer rising path and accelerates beyond both longer comparison windows; it does not forecast the next change or support an investment recommendation. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 3.44%, maximum drawdown was a 2.59% decline, and history coverage was 98.82%, so the current index sits in a nearly complete observed record rather than a sparse series. Transparent national discovery ranks were 33 for momentum, 2,173 for stability, and 505 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger. The modest variability and shallow past drawdown increase confidence in the continuity of the index history, but not confidence that any one current dwelling will match the ZIP snapshot.
The source gap is material. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports $1,605 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; the current ZORI is 59.0% higher. This does not contradict ZORI, because ACS is a retrospective survey construction while ZORI records a typical observed asking-rent index. HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,500. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,093 for a studio, $2,127 for one bedroom, $2,552 for two bedrooms, $3,147 for three bedrooms, and $3,947 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents, and neither the ACS median nor HUD standard should be substituted for a listing quote.
An arithmetic 30% required-income screen converts the monthly ZORI to $102,080 annually. That sits just above the ZCTA ACS median household income of $98,583, and the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 31.1%. This calculation is neither affordability advice nor an applicant qualification rule: it does not identify a household’s wages, expenses, subsidies, deposits, utility bill, or actual lease amount. In the ACS renter survey, 1,881 of 3,174 renter households were reported spending at least the screen threshold on rent, a 59.3% burden share. It signals a broad survey-based exposure to rent burden, with reported sampling margins, not proof that a specific current renter or unit is burdened.
The ACS housing counts point to a stock and availability distinction. Of 22,644 housing units in the ZCTA, the vacancy rate was 18.3%; the reported seasonal-vacancy count alone was 2,932, while 488 units were classified vacant for rent. Renter households represented 17.2% of occupied homes, and 16,349 units were single-family structures. These composition and vacancy figures describe the survey area’s housing status, not a live vacancy feed or evidence that a named unit can be leased at the index. In particular, seasonal vacancies cannot be converted into year-round rental availability, and vacant-for-rent counts do not reveal condition, bedroom count, pricing, timing, or lease terms.
Broader comparisons position the ZIP above nearby context readings, but they are not replacements for ZIP evidence. Fernandina Beach city scope has a $2,403 context rent, Nassau County scope has $2,238, and Jacksonville, FL metro scope has $1,708, each below the ZIP index. Those city, county, and metro figures cover wider geographies and should remain context rather than being treated as ZIP asking rents or bedroom comparables. They establish a useful scale difference without describing the distribution of listings inside the ZIP, resolving the ZCTA-versus-delivery-ZIP boundary issue, or explaining why the observed index moved.
Redfin supplies a different, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation rather than rental transactions. Its median sold price was $672,298, up 9.9% from a year earlier; 331 homes sold and the median marketing time was 52 days. Inventory was 501 homes with 4.6 months of supply, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.7% and 5.6% sold above list. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 4.6% cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level economic result. Resale price growth confirms an upward market signal alongside rent history, but marketing time, supply, and below-list average sales challenge a simple reading of uniformly tight conditions.
Several limits prevent the data from becoming a unit-level conclusion. ZORI blends rental types; ACS is a survey of occupied homes and carries survey uncertainty; HUD standards are administrative; and Redfin aggregates closed for-sale activity. A property-level review requires actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, availability date, and address-to-market assignment before comparing a listing with the modelled ladder or ZORI index. For a purchase-related review, the specific property’s condition, transaction terms, and relevant closed-sale comparables remain outside this packet. Do the individual dwelling’s current terms align with these separate benchmarks, rather than inviting an aggregate measure to stand in for its rent or resale outcome?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI reached $2,552 in June 2026 and rose 13.24% year over year. The matching same-month history shows annualized gains of 7.05% over three years and 9.39% over five years, so the latest pace is above both longer rates. History is backward-looking; its 3.44% annualized volatility and 2.59% maximum drawdown inform snapshot confidence rather than a forecast.","title":"Recent asking-rent acceleration exceeds longer history"},{"body":"ACS and HUD are not alternate asking-rent quotes. ACS reports a five-year survey median gross rent among occupied renter homes, with selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with HUD’s local ladder. They are useful for a consistent layout screen but are not measured rents for actual apartments or houses.","title":"Asking rent, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards are distinct measures"},{"body":"The $102,080 annual income figure is the arithmetic result of applying a 30% screen to annualized ZORI, not a household eligibility test. The ACS burden estimate shows 59.3% of renter households at or above the threshold, while ACS also reports survey margins of error. High burden identifies aggregate survey exposure only; it cannot establish a particular tenant’s payment capacity or a unit’s affordability.","title":"Income screen and rent burden identify an aggregate pressure point"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a $672,298 median sold price, 331 homes sold, and 4.6 months of supply. These are direct for-sale observations, not rental transactions. The 4.6% annualized-rent-to-price result is a cross-source screening ratio. It does not measure lease demand, unit-level revenue, or operating outcomes. Below-list average sales and marketing time counter a uniformly tight-market reading.","title":"Resale evidence is positive on price but mixed on market urgency"}],"risks":["Because ZORI blends rental types and does not identify bedroom, utility, lease, or concession terms, a specific listing can diverge materially from the current index and the modelled ladder.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS is a multi-year occupied-household survey; timing, boundary, and sampling differences limit direct comparison with current asking rent.","Seasonal vacancies and vacant-for-rent survey counts do not establish current availability, condition, pricing, or tenancy status for any property, so they cannot be used as proof of leasing opportunity.","Redfin aggregates rolling resale activity, while the rent-to-price calculation omits property-level costs, financing, condition, and transaction terms; the ratio cannot supply a complete economic assessment."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. The measures differ in timing, population, construction, and rent concept, so the comparison identifies a source gap rather than a conflict or a unit-specific price.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The modelled figures start with ZIP ZORI and scale it by the relative local HUD bedroom ladder, anchoring the two-bedroom estimate to the direct index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rent. Therefore the output is a standardized estimate for comparison, not a measurement of rents obtained by individual bedroom types.","q":"How should the modelled bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"Annualizing the monthly ZORI and dividing by 30% generates the stated income screen. It is simple arithmetic intended to make the market index comparable with reported median household income. It does not incorporate applicant income sources, household size, debts, subsidies, deposits, utilities, or lease terms, and it is not advice or a qualification rule.","q":"What does the required-income screen test?"},{"a":"Redfin adds direct rolling-three-month ZIP evidence about closed for-sale activity: sale prices, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price outcomes. It does not add rental comps or property operating data. The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price percentage is therefore only a cross-source screen, and it cannot determine the outcome for a specific purchase or rental listing.","q":"What does Redfin add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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