The central measured tension in 32205 is that the current asking-rent reading is still advancing, but its recent pace is far below the longer historical path. Zillow ZIP ZORI stands at $1,538, with a one-year exact same-month annualized change of 2.8%, a three-year change of 2.3%, and a five-year change of 5.3%. The latest one-year gain modestly exceeds the three-year pace, so recent direction confirms continued growth rather than breaking from it; however, it remains well below the five-year result. These are backward-looking index measurements, not a forecast of future asking rents or an investment conclusion.
The history series supports moderate confidence in the current rent snapshot, while still requiring restraint about precision. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.5%, indicating relatively limited month-to-month movement in this history rather than an erratic index. The maximum drawdown was a 1.9% decline, showing that prior pullbacks were shallow but did occur. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national history-eligible ZIP discovery ranks place momentum at 1,202, stability at 653, and the balanced measure at 645, where lower ranks are higher. Together, the stable record makes the current reading more informative than a thin series, but variability means one monthly snapshot is still not a guaranteed lease outcome.
Source boundaries explain why the rent figures do not line up perfectly. The 32205 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. In contrast, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities: its matched ZCTA value is $1,263, making the Zillow asking index 21.8% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,510, 1.9% below the ZIP asking-rent index.
The bedroom ladder translates the blended ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates by scaling it with the local HUD ladder. The resulting studio estimate is $1,253, followed by $1,283 for one bedroom, $1,538 for two bedrooms, $1,894 for three bedrooms, and $2,373 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they do not establish what any advertised apartment, house, utility package, or lease term will command. Their decision use is comparative: they show how the local administrative bedroom structure maps the overall asking-rent index across unit sizes.
The income screen is comparatively close to the ZIP household-income figure, yet surveyed renter burden remains substantial. A 30% arithmetic screen at the current index rent produces required annual income of $61,520, versus matched ZCTA median household income of $64,789; the asking-rent-to-income calculation is 28.5%. That calculation is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 3,205 of 6,517 surveyed renter households, or 49.2%, report spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. The burden result describes survey households and cannot prove that a particular available unit is affordable or unaffordable for a particular renter.
Housing-stock evidence gives that burden figure an important aggregate setting. The matched ZCTA contains 16,074 housing units, including 1,668 vacant units, for a 10.4% vacancy rate; renters account for 45.2% of occupied households, and 691 vacant units are classified as for rent. Those categories do not demonstrate the availability, condition, price, or suitability of any one residence. For wider context only, the City of Jacksonville asking-rent measure is about $1,600, Duval County's asking-rent measure is $1,616, and the Jacksonville, FL metro asking-rent measure is $1,708. These city, county, and metro values are broader geographic benchmarks rather than substitutes for ZIP-level evidence.
Redfin supplies a separate for-sale lens through a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $289,934, up 2.6% year over year; 151 homes sold, days on market were 61, inventory was 225 homes, and months of supply were 4.5. Sale-to-list signals were softer than a full-price environment: the average sale-to-list result was 97.0%, while 15.7% of sales closed above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 6.37% cross-source screening ratio only. Resale prices rising alongside rent confirms positive direction, but longer marketing time, supply, and below-list average sales challenge any overly strong reading of the rent and income screens.
All conclusions remain bounded by the supplied series and their distinct universes. Zillow measures an asking-rent index, ACS measures surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD provides an administrative standard, and Redfin measures ZIP resale conditions. None is a property appraisal, operating statement, tenant file, forecast, or recommendation. Relevant property-level checks include the actual quoted rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, unit condition, occupancy status, active listing status, list price, and recorded sale timing. Those facts can materially differ from ZIP aggregates and cannot be inferred from vacancy, burden, or resale averages. Does property-specific evidence support the same rent, affordability, and resale interpretation suggested by these separate aggregate sources?
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is rising on both the one-year and three-year measures, so the recent direction remains consistent with the broader stable-growth history. The five-year annualized change is materially stronger, however, indicating that the latest pace is not a repeat of the earlier long-run acceleration. This is historical measurement, not a forward rent projection.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but is slower than the long-run pace"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI represents a blended typical observed asking-rent index, while ACS gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities over a five-year survey period. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The gap between these figures is therefore not automatically a pricing discrepancy; it chiefly reflects different populations, constructions, and intended uses.","title":"The asking-rent, ACS, and HUD figures answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic required-income amount at the ZIP asking-rent index is slightly below matched ZCTA median household income, producing a rent-to-income screen below 30%. Yet nearly half of surveyed renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The two results can coexist because a median-income comparison is not a distribution of renter incomes or unit-level housing costs.","title":"The aggregate income screen is near the threshold, but burden remains high"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year rise in median sold price, which is directionally consistent with positive rent history. At the same time, the days-on-market, months-of-supply, and average sale-to-list measures point to a resale environment where transactions were not uniformly closing at list price. That tension limits how strongly the rent trend can be read alongside for-sale evidence.","title":"Resale liquidity tempers a simple positive-price reading"}],"risks":["The modelled bedroom ladder is derived by scaling the blended ZIP asking-rent index with HUD standards, so it may not match the observed asking rent for any specific bedroom count, building type, or lease structure.","ACS gross-rent and renter-burden measures are survey estimates for occupied renter households, not live listings. They cannot establish the price, availability, utilities, or affordability of a particular vacant unit.","Vacancy and vacant-for-rent totals are aggregate classifications. They do not prove that a unit is market-ready, competitively priced, physically suitable, or available when a prospective renter or buyer searches.","The Redfin ratio combines annualized Zillow asking rent with a median resale price from a separate source universe. It omits property-specific costs, financing, condition, taxes, insurance, and transaction variation."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures are constructed differently. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS population may therefore include existing leases and housing arrangements that do not resemble current asking-rent conditions.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"The complete observation coverage, limited monthly variability, and shallow historical maximum drawdown support treating the current index as a useful summary of the recent ZIP pattern. Confidence should remain qualified because the series is an aggregate asking-rent index: it does not measure every unit, and the latest monthly value is not a guaranteed transaction outcome.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current asking-rent reading?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure is a simple arithmetic screen based on allocating 30% of income to the current ZIP asking-rent index. It is not lending guidance, leasing advice, an eligibility rule, or evidence of any landlord's policy. Actual qualification can depend on the quoted unit rent, income documentation, lease terms, and other property-specific facts.","q":"Does the required-income calculation mean a renter will qualify for a unit?"},{"a":"Redfin describes direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale and resale activity, including sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental-comparable evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-sold-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio; it can frame a tension between markets but cannot establish property economics, transaction outcomes, or future performance.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used with the rental data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS 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