ZIP 32207’s current asking-rent signal is firm but not exceptional against its broader benchmarks. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $1,580, up 2.3% from a year earlier. This five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context, the Jacksonville city rent figure is about $1,600, the Duval County figure is $1,616, and the Jacksonville, FL metro figure is $1,708. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, while the ZIP ZORI is the direct current asking-rent index.
The historical path supplies a more nuanced reading than the single current figure. Exact same-month ZORI change was 2.3% annualized over one year, 1.5% over three years, and 4.6% over five years. Thus, recent direction still confirms a positive longer path, yet it breaks from the faster pace embedded in the five-year record. History contains 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns, with complete available coverage. Monthly-return variability annualized to 3.0%, so a current snapshot warrants measured rather than absolute confidence. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 2.8%, showing that the index did experience declines despite its positive multiyear changes. Momentum, stability, and balanced national discovery ranks are transparent sorting tools among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower rank is higher; they are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-specific quote for a particular bedroom count. The bedroom ladder translates that ZIP index into modelled monthly estimates: $1,296 for a studio, $1,317 for one bedroom, $1,580 for two bedrooms, $1,949 for three bedrooms, and $2,444 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR or SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent—and its local ladder runs from a $1,230 studio standard to a $2,320 four-bedroom standard.
The income screen is relatively close to the area’s reported median income, but it is only arithmetic. Annualizing the current ZORI and applying a 30% rent-to-income threshold produces required income of $63,200; the matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median household income is $65,234, and the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 29.1%. This is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. ACS median gross rent, at $1,266, is a separate five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, making it conceptually different from Zillow’s current asking-rent index. Within that ACS renter universe, 3,670 of 8,292 renter households, or 44.3%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. Survey margins of error also limit precision.
Housing composition reinforces the need to separate ZIP-wide availability indicators from any particular unit. The matched ZCTA has 19,402 housing units and a 13.5% vacancy rate, while renters represent 49.4% of occupied households. Its stock includes 10,686 single-family units alongside large multifamily housing, indicating that the rent index blends more than one housing form. Jacksonville city and Duval County context figures should not be substituted for this ZIP’s counts or rates; they describe wider geographies. Nor does the ZIP vacancy measure establish that a specific home is rentable, competitively priced, vacant now, or offered on the lease terms a renter may need.
The resale evidence introduces the central tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation reports a $298,932 median sold price, down 4.3% year over year, even as the asking-rent index rose over the latest year. The resale market recorded 139 homes sold with a median 45 days on market, 173 homes of inventory, and 3.8 months of supply. Sellers received 97.0% of list price on average; 8.9% of homes sold above list, and 34.1% went off market within two weeks. These are ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals only, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about property-level operating economics.
Annualized ZIP ZORI is $18,960, and dividing it by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 6.34% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because the packet does not provide property income, expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, or unit-specific leasing terms. The ratio may look stronger when the resale price is lower, but that mechanical relationship does not resolve the more important tension: rent history remains positive and the income screen is near the reported median, while the direct resale median price has declined. The resale evidence therefore challenges any simple interpretation that current rent momentum and for-sale pricing are moving together.
Important limits remain before applying these ZIP measurements to a building or unit. A property-level review would require the actual asking rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, concessions, condition, availability date, and whether the listing belongs to the rental type represented by the index. It would also require confirming current sale status, list-price history, closing details, and whether a comparable transaction falls inside the same ZIP resale observation. ACS burden and vacancy are population-level survey results, HUD is an administrative standard, and ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. The key unresolved question is whether the specific unit’s lease terms and physical characteristics align with the broad ZIP signals rather than merely sharing its postal label.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 32207’s Zillow asking-rent index is slightly below the Jacksonville city and Duval County context figures and more clearly below the Jacksonville metro figure. That comparison is useful for scale, but it does not make the broader figures substitutes for ZIP evidence. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index, not a recorded rent for every available unit.","title":"Current rent trails wider rent context"},{"body":"The latest one-year ZORI change is positive and exceeds the annualized three-year change, but it remains below the five-year annualized rate. History is complete across the available series, yet annualized monthly variability and the observed drawdown show that the current rent level is not a frictionless or permanent point. The pattern is descriptive and backward-looking only.","title":"Recent rent growth is positive but slower than the long-run pace"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation places the ZIP’s current asking-rent index near the matched ZCTA median household income. Meanwhile, a substantial share of ACS renter households reported rent burdens at or above 30% of income. The first measure is arithmetic based on an asking-rent index; the second is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and cannot establish the burden of a particular household.","title":"Affordability arithmetic and observed burden tell different stories"},{"body":"The ZIP’s direct Redfin resale observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price while the asking-rent index increased over the latest year. Marketing time, supply, sale-to-list results, and above-list activity describe for-sale liquidity rather than rental demand. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is therefore only a cross-source screen and cannot be treated as a property return measure.","title":"Resale pricing challenges a simple rent-strength narrative"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the actual rent, concessions, utility treatment, condition, or lease structure of a specific available home.","ACS results are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA and carry margins of error; median gross rent and rent burden should not be read as current lease quotes or household-specific outcomes.","The bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, not measured asking rents, completed leases, or evidence of achievable rent.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation concerns homes sold and listed for sale. Its rent-to-price screen excludes operating costs and property details, so it cannot establish cap rate, yield, or expected return."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful as a current market signal, but it is not a signed lease, a utility-adjusted rent quote, a rent guarantee, or a measurement of a particular bedroom type.","q":"What does the ZIP’s current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder so readers can view a consistent size pattern. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, and neither source turns these estimates into observed rents for specific listings.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides by 30% to produce an arithmetic income benchmark. It is not lending advice, tenant-screening guidance, a legal standard, or evidence that any particular household can afford a particular unit.","q":"Does the 30% income calculation determine whether an applicant qualifies?"},{"a":"It adds direct ZIP evidence about the for-sale market, including sold prices, sales pace, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not provide rental transactions or operating expenses. Its main value here is showing that resale price direction can differ from the recent asking-rent history.","q":"What does the Redfin resale data add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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