At the June 2026 reading, ZIP 32209 has a Zillow Observed Rent Index of $1,197 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote or a median of occupied homes. Its recent movement is nearly flat: the same-month one-year change was 0.31%. That cooling pace breaks from the longer backward-looking path, which recorded annualized same-month changes of 2.96% over three years and 6.24% over five years. The contrast matters more than the current level alone: the index still reflects a higher historical trajectory, but the latest period does not confirm that earlier rate of increase. These measurements describe past asking-rent behavior only, not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
The five-digit 32209 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area used for Census reporting; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,062 for occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey figure is 12.7% below current ZORI, a difference that is compatible with their separate populations and methods rather than proof of a market change. The supplied HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder sets a two-bedroom administrative standard of $1,200. HUD is bedroom-specific program administration, not asking rent, so it is not a substitute for either ZORI or ACS gross rent.
Bedroom figures provide a practical size ladder, but they remain modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder: $978 for a studio, $998 for a one-bedroom, $1,197 for a two-bedroom, $1,476 for a three-bedroom, and $1,845 for a four-bedroom. This approach preserves the relative HUD bedroom structure while anchoring the result to the ZIP-level asking-rent index. It cannot establish what any available property of a given size is asking, whether utilities are included, or whether a unit’s physical condition matches the broader rental mix behind ZORI.
Income and burden measures create the sharper tension in this ZIP. ACS reports median household income of $30,514. Applying a 30% share of income to the current annualized ZORI produces a required-income screen of $47,880, and annualized asking rent equals 47.1% of the reported median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-household universe, 59.9% of renter households were burdened by rent at or above the stated threshold. The burden result reinforces that the index-to-income comparison warrants care, but neither statistic proves affordability, payment history, or lease terms for a particular household or unit.
The ACS ZCTA housing stock also shows a sizable vacancy and a renter-oriented occupancy mix. Of 17,648 housing units, the reported vacancy rate was 18.0%, including 1,282 units classified as vacant for rent. Renter occupancy represented 53.0% of occupied homes. The physical stock was led by 13,287 single-family units, while large multifamily buildings accounted for 683 units. These are area-level counts and classifications, not a current availability feed. In particular, a vacant-for-rent count does not show a unit’s asking rent, location within the ZCTA, condition, timing of availability, concessions, or whether it fits a household’s needs. Vacancy therefore supplies market context without proving access to a specific rental.
Wider-geography rent context is materially higher: citywide Jacksonville Zillow rent is $1,599.67, Duval County Zillow rent is $1,616, and the Jacksonville, FL metro Zillow rent is $1,708; each is context for its named city, county, or metro scope rather than a substitute for ZIP 32209 evidence. Jacksonville city context also reports a 42.4% renter share and an 8.5% vacancy rate, both below the ZIP’s ACS measures. That geographic gap helps frame the lower ZIP asking-rent index, but it does not explain why the gap exists or establish comparable property quality. City, county, and metro figures aggregate broader housing markets with different housing mixes and should be read only as reference benchmarks.
The history file has strong coverage at 99.3%, supporting use of its direction measures as a fairly complete record of the available monthly ZIP observations. Monthly rent changes produced 2.77% annualized variability, so a single current ZORI reading carries some month-to-month measurement uncertainty even though the recent trend is slow. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 3.33%, documenting that the historical path included a meaningful decline from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 1,722, stability at 1,184, and the balanced measure at 1,594, where a lower rank is higher. These ranks are descriptive discovery tools, not performance ratings, forecasts, or evidence that the prior path will repeat.
Direct ZIP resale evidence supplies a separate caution. In Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $98,478, down 28.7% year over year; 90 homes sold with median marketing time of 70 days. The same resale block reports 391 active listings, 225 homes in inventory, and 7.5 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 93.4%, while 8.0% of sales closed above list and 15.0% went off market within two weeks. Those liquidity and pricing signals challenge any simplistic reading that a near-flat asking-rent index resolves broader market conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 14.6%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate or property-level return. Property-level records would still need to establish bedroom count, asking-rent terms, utility responsibility, condition, actual availability, sale comparability, and whether the listed and sold properties represent the same type of housing.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 32209’s current ZORI is nearly unchanged from the prior same-month reading, while its three-year and five-year historical changes were materially faster. The strongest rent signal is therefore deceleration rather than renewed acceleration. Because ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, that finding applies to the ZIP-wide index and cannot identify the lease terms or rent path of a particular property.","title":"Recent rent growth has cooled materially"},{"body":"The ZIP’s asking-rent index sits below city, county, and metro rent context, yet the ACS income and rent-burden measures show a different pressure point. The arithmetic income screen exceeds reported median household income, and a large share of ACS renter households meets the burden threshold. These are population-level indicators, not evidence about a specific applicant, unit, or landlord requirement.","title":"Affordability indicators are strained despite lower rent context"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows lower sold prices, lengthy marketing time, ample supply, and below-list sale-to-list performance. Those for-sale signals are not rental transactions and cannot be converted into rent comparables or property economics. They do, however, challenge a simplistic interpretation of the flat current rent index as a complete statement about the ZIP’s housing-market conditions.","title":"Resale conditions do not mirror a simple rent story"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA reports substantial vacancy, many units classified as vacant for rent, and a stock dominated by single-family homes. Those counts provide useful context for the housing base and renter share. They do not confirm that a specific home is available, habitable, similarly sized, competitively priced, utility-inclusive, or suitable for a particular household at the time of inquiry.","title":"Stock and vacancy measures require unit-level confirmation"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards describe different populations and methods. Treating their numerical differences as interchangeable rent quotes can distort conclusions about current listings, lease costs, or household affordability.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Geographic matching is useful for context, but the Census survey universe may not map exactly to every address served by ZIP 32209.","Historical rent changes, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements. They cannot establish future rent direction, landlord behavior, tenant demand, or the outcome of any individual property decision.","Redfin resale observations concern homes sold and listed in the for-sale market. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen and omits expenses, financing, taxes, condition, vacancy duration, and property-specific lease details."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference between them can reflect timing, occupied versus asking units, rental mix, and utility treatment. It does not independently prove that rents recently increased by the size of the gap.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for maintaining a consistent bedroom relationship, but they are not measured asking rents, lease transactions, or advertised-unit averages. Unit-level confirmation would require the actual bedroom count, rent quote, utility terms, condition, and availability information.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The screen annualizes current ZIP ZORI and divides it by the structural 30% income share. It is an arithmetic comparison designed to show the income associated with that rent level under the stated assumption. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability can differ because households, utilities, subsidies, roommates, debts, and lease terms differ.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate direct ZIP for-sale observation. Median sold price, price movement, homes sold, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list indicators describe resale liquidity and negotiation conditions, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price percentage can flag a cross-source relationship, but it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or evidence of expected performance for any property.","q":"How should the resale information be used alongside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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