Zillow’s June 2026 reading puts the current monthly rent signal at $1,642. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it summarizes a market rather than quoting an available home. In the wider Jacksonville city context, the index is about $1,600; in Duval County context it is $1,616; and in the Jacksonville, FL metro context it is $1,708. Those are wider-context comparisons, not substitutes for this ZIP’s measure. The ZIP therefore reads a little above city and county context and below metro context. Annualizing the index yields a $65,680 gross-income screen at 30%; that screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The index-to-local-median-household-income calculation is 22.3%, which describes a ratio, not what any renter actually pays.
The five-digit label 32224 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundary and delivery-address checks matter at property level. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,764; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That survey universe differs from ZORI’s observed asking-rent universe and period, so the lower current index is not a contradiction or a unit-level price comparison. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is another separate universe: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. It should inform the later scaling exercise only on those stated terms.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than observed. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,344 for a studio, $1,370 for one bedroom, $1,642 for two bedrooms, $2,025 for three bedrooms, and $2,535 for four bedrooms. The related local HUD standards are $1,580, $1,610, $1,930, $2,380, and $2,980 in that same bedroom sequence. The estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring it to the ZIP index; they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They should not be treated as listing medians, lease quotes, or evidence that a particular bedroom size is available at any amount.
The recent increase is a reversal of part of the medium-term path, not a simple straight-line story. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes are 1.73% over one year, -0.36% over three years, and 3.04% over five years. Thus the current positive direction breaks from the slight three-year decline while remaining compatible with positive longer-run five-year growth. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.79%, and the maximum drawdown is -5.19%, limiting the confidence warranted by any one current rent snapshot. History coverage is 100% across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks are 2,005 for momentum, 1,225 for stability, and 1,885 for balanced performance; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
ACS inventory also conditions interpretation, but only at area scale. The matched ZCTA has 17,309 housing units and 1,114 vacant units, a 6.4% vacancy rate. The stock includes 9,184 single-family units and 3,323 units in large multifamily structures. Those totals describe an area’s mix and unoccupied units, not the vacancy status, condition, lease timing, or price of any specific home. The renter base is addressed separately by the survey burden data; vacancy classifications can include rental, sale, seasonal, and other uses. Accordingly, aggregate vacancy cannot prove that a particular rental is available, nor does it show which bedroom estimate applies to a live listing.
ACS identifies 7,416 renter-occupied homes; 4,786 are in the 30%-plus gross-rent-burden category, or 64.5%. This is a substantial area-wide share and is above the Jacksonville city and Duval County context burden readings, but it remains a survey result for occupied renters rather than evidence about any individual household or unit. It also cannot be reconciled mechanically with the ZORI income screen: burden reflects household income and gross rent over the ACS survey window, whereas ZORI captures a current blended asking-rent index. The two measures can frame a decision differently without establishing a tenant’s actual affordability or qualification.
Several limits keep these comparisons from becoming a property verdict. ZORI has no listed unit’s condition, concessions, fees, lease term, availability date, or utility treatment; ACS estimates have survey uncertainty and a different population; and HUD standards are not asking rents. Before using a comparison for a live option, verify the street address against ZIP delivery and ZCTA geography, the advertised rent and date, bedroom count, included utilities and recurring fees, lease duration, concession terms, and actual availability. Confirm the applicable HUD geography and bedroom standard if that benchmark is relevant. The history is backward-looking and does not forecast future rents. The practical unresolved question is whether a specific, currently offered home, documented on those terms, matches the bedroom and utility assumptions of the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 typical asking-rent index is $1,642. In the same comparison, Jacksonville city context is about $1,600, Duval County context is $1,616, and Jacksonville, FL metro context is $1,708. This places the ZIP above the city and county context readings but below the metro reading. These wider geographies remain context, not replacements for the ZIP-level measure.","title":"Current asking signal sits between local and metro context"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year estimate of $1,764 median gross rent pertains to occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and has survey uncertainty. Zillow’s current index is a blended observed asking-rent measure across rental types. HUD’s FY2026 bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks rather than asking rents. Differences among the three sources should be interpreted as scope differences before they are treated as price gaps.","title":"ACS gross rent and current asking index do not share a universe"},{"body":"Same-month history shows a 1.73% increase over one year after a -0.36% annualized three-year result, while the five-year annualized change is 3.04%. That pattern supports an accelerating recent direction but not a uniform historical trajectory. With 2.79% annualized monthly-return variability and a -5.19% maximum drawdown, one latest index reading carries limited standalone precision. The history is descriptive, not predictive.","title":"History has resumed upward after intermediate softness"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA contains 17,309 housing units, with a 6.4% vacancy rate, and ACS identifies 64.5% of renter households in the 30%-plus gross-rent-burden category. Those measures describe aggregate stock and occupied-renter outcomes. They do not prove vacancy, affordability, availability, condition, or tenant burden for a specific address. Confirm current listing terms and geography directly.","title":"Inventory and burden are area signals, not unit facts"}],"risks":["Zillow, ACS, and HUD describe different populations, time windows, utility treatment, and rent concepts. Treating their dollar gaps as a direct discount, premium, or unit price would overstate comparability.","History covers every expected observation but remains a backward-looking index series. Recent acceleration, monthly variability, and prior drawdown do not establish a future path for rents, listings, or property income.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. A property near a boundary can require address-level verification before applying any ZIP or ZCTA comparison.","Area vacancy and survey burden are aggregate measures, not evidence that a particular home is vacant, affordable, occupied, available, or subject to the same utility and lease terms reflected elsewhere."],"qa":[{"a":"They are not drawn from the same universe. Zillow is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, occupied-versus-asking observations, and utility treatment prevent the difference from identifying a unit-level price gap.","q":"Why is the current Zillow amount lower than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using local HUD bedroom standards. HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmark, not asking rent. The resulting ladder preserves relative bedroom scaling only; it does not report lease medians, listing medians, or an available apartment’s price.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents?"},{"a":"The series documents a positive latest same-month result after a slightly negative three-year annualized path, alongside positive five-year growth. Its variability and maximum drawdown mean the current level should be read as a measured snapshot with limited precision. It is backward-looking evidence only and does not forecast rents or support investment conclusions.","q":"What does the history say about the latest rent direction?"},{"a":"Verify the offered address against both delivery ZIP and matched ZCTA geography, then confirm advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, included utilities, fees, concessions, lease duration, availability date, and whether the property is actually available. If comparing with HUD, confirm the governing geography and applicable bedroom standard. These checks align a live listing with the report’s nonidentical data universes.","q":"Which property checks are most important before applying these comparisons?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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