Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation creates the central tension for this reading: its median sold price was $594,866, down 13.8% year over year, while Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index was $1,903, up 3.3%. Those are different markets, not conflicting measurements of the same transactions. Redfin recorded 75 homes sold, a 55-day median marketing time, 113 homes of inventory, and 4.6 months of supply; its 96.94% average sale-to-list result and 9.6% sold-above-list share remain for-sale signals only. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin sold price produces a 3.84% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The falling resale price challenges a simple rent-strength reading despite current asking-rent growth.
The 32233 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,681 among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current ZORI level is 13.2% above that ACS gross-rent measure, a gap that can reflect their different populations, timing, rent concepts, and utility treatment. Neither series should be relabeled as the other, and the ACS result is a survey estimate rather than a current asking-rent quote.
History shows a positive path with uneven pacing rather than a straight-line result. The one-year exact same-month annualized rent change was 3.3%, the three-year change was 1.5%, and the five-year change was 4.7%. Recent direction therefore confirms that rents remain above the prior year, but it does not match the stronger long-run five-year pace; the three-year measure is notably slower. The history has 138 observations and 100% coverage. Monthly-return variability of 3.3% annualized suggests a current ZORI snapshot deserves moderate rather than absolute precision, while the separate maximum drawdown of 3.2% indicates the largest historical decline was contained but real. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,283 for momentum, 2,054 for stability, and 1,772 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder: $1,553 for a studio, $1,586 for one bedroom, $1,903 for two bedrooms, $2,340 for three bedrooms, and $2,942 for four bedrooms. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,740. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard used for program purposes, not an asking-rent observation. Thus, the ladder is useful for expressing how the index is distributed across bedroom counts, but it does not establish achievable rent, concessions, utility terms, or condition-adjusted rents for a particular unit.
At the ZCTA household level, median household income was $89,185. Applying a 30% share to the current $1,903 monthly ZORI gives a required-income screen of $76,120 and an asking-rent-to-income screen of 25.6%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden measure adds a different, cautionary lens: 57.6% of renter households, or 2,336 of 4,059, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden statistic concerns occupied renter households in the survey universe, not prospective tenants or any specific lease. Its survey uncertainty and its inclusion of selected utilities further limit direct comparison with today’s asking-rent index.
Housing availability data show a mixed stock-and-vacancy backdrop. The ACS ZCTA contained 11,350 housing units, with a 10.1% vacancy rate and a 39.8% renter share. The stock is more single-family than large-multifamily by count, while 212 vacant units were classified as available for rent at the survey reference point. Those classifications describe aggregate housing status, not advertised listings, lease readiness, unit quality, or landlord pricing. In particular, neither the vacancy rate nor the count available for rent proves that a particular unit is vacant, affordable, comparable to ZORI, or available on the terms a renter may need.
Wider geography provides context but not substitutes for the ZIP observation. Jacksonville city context asking rent was $1,599.67, Duval County context asking rent was $1,616, and Jacksonville, FL metro context asking rent was $1,708; each is a broader geographic measure than ZIP 32233. The ZIP’s current ZORI is higher than all three contextual rent readings, while the ZIP resale evidence simultaneously shows a year-over-year sold-price decline. That pairing supports a careful separation of rental pricing from resale liquidity. City, county, and metro figures can frame scale, but they cannot replace ZIP history, the matched ZCTA survey universe, or Redfin’s direct ZIP for-sale observation.
The evidence supports a bounded read rather than a property conclusion: asking rents have risen recently, longer history remains positive but variable, and the resale snapshot is softer on price and marketing signals. Concrete property-level review would still need the actual asking rent, bedroom count, utilities paid by the tenant, concessions, lease term, condition, availability date, and comparable active listings. A resale review would separately need transaction dates, property characteristics, list-price history, condition, and sale terms. Those checks are necessary because this report cannot establish a particular unit’s achievable rent, occupancy, operating costs, financing outcome, or resale result from ZIP-level and ZCTA-level measurements.
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale read shows a lower median sold price while Zillow ZORI increased. That divergence makes the 3.84% cross-source screen descriptive only; it does not reconcile property condition, transaction mix, operating costs, or rental availability. Marketing and sale-to-list signals describe for-sale liquidity, not rental demand or lease terms.","title":"Resale softness contrasts with current rent growth"},{"body":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month measures are all positive, but the three-year pace is slower than the five-year pace. Annualized variability and a recorded drawdown mean that a single current ZORI reading is informative but should not be treated as an exact, permanent market price.","title":"Rent history is positive but not uniform"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation uses current ZIP asking rent and ZCTA median household income. ACS rent burden instead describes surveyed occupied renter households paying gross rent, including selected utilities. The two measures are useful together, but neither determines what a particular applicant can qualify for or what a specific unit will cost.","title":"Affordability screens differ by population and definition"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use the local HUD ladder to distribute ZIP ZORI across bedroom counts. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, not observed asking rent, and the resulting bedroom values are modelled estimates. Listing-level utilities, concessions, condition, and availability can materially differ from the ladder.","title":"Bedroom values are scaled estimates rather than rent comps"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD FMR/SAFMR, and Redfin resale statistics measure different populations, dates, and concepts, so comparing them without preserving their source universes can create false precision.","The positive current rent change does not eliminate historical variability or the recorded drawdown, meaning a single current ZIP asking-rent index level should not be treated as a stable property-specific rent conclusion.","Redfin’s sale price and liquidity measures are direct for-sale observations, while the rent-price screening ratio omits property expenses, financing, condition, transaction composition, and achievable lease terms.","ZCTA vacancy, renter share, and rent-burden estimates are aggregate survey measures with uncertainty; they cannot prove vacancy, affordability, tenant demand, or rent performance for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They differ in timing, sampled housing, occupancy status, and rent definition, so their gap is evidence of differing measurement universes rather than an error.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not a record of asking rents. Actual listings can differ because of unit condition, utilities, concessions, lease terms, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for apartments in this ZIP?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price in Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation. That arithmetic can screen the relationship between two cross-source measurements, but it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion because it excludes property-specific costs and transaction details.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio tell a reader?"},{"a":"Rent burden describes surveyed occupied renter households spending at least 30% of income on ACS gross rent, while vacancy describes aggregate ZCTA housing-unit status. Neither measure identifies a particular household or dwelling. They provide context on the survey population and stock, but cannot verify that a specific listing is vacant, affordable, or likely to lease.","q":"How should rent burden and vacancy be interpreted here?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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