At June 2026, 32246’s Zillow ZORI stood at $1,753. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its exact same-month annualized changes were 2.14% over one year, -0.17% over three years and 2.48% over five years. The recently accelerating direction therefore confirms the positive five-year path but breaks from the slightly declining three-year path. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. History coverage is 100%; annualized monthly-return variability was 2.78%, and maximum drawdown was -4.62%. Complete coverage makes the sequence reviewable rather than filling a gap, yet it does not remove index-level differences among rental types. The variability and drawdown mean a reader should place less confidence in a single current snapshot than in a uniformly stable series.
The five-digit label 32246 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent was $1,761, slightly above the current ZORI. That proximity is descriptive, not an interchangeability test: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. Different timing, occupancy, utility treatment and the ZCTA-versus-ZIP geography can all create gaps, even where the levels look similar.
The bedroom view is a size-sensitive allocation, but its values are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. It scales the ZIP ZORI by the local FY2026 HUD ladder: $1,428 for a studio, $1,462 for one bedroom, $1,753 for two bedrooms, $2,163 for three bedrooms and $2,711 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $2,050; that standard supplies the scaling reference rather than a market quote. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Accordingly, the ladder communicates a modelled relationship among bedroom sizes and cannot replace a listing’s quoted rent.
The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Annualizing the current index at that screen yields $70,120 of required household income, versus the ACS ZCTA median household income of $80,963. Separately, 5,337 of 11,309 renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above the screen, a 47.2% share. Because a median is not an income distribution, the comparison does not reveal the incomes associated with individual homes. The burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households rather than a specific lease. Neither statistic proves the cost, utility terms, burden, income or eligibility of a particular unit or renter.
Supply-side evidence is a stock snapshot rather than a listing inventory. The matched ZCTA has 26,747 housing units and includes both single-family and large multifamily structures; renter households occupy 45.3% of occupied homes, while owner households account for the balance. Its ACS vacancy rate is 6.7%, including 911 units classified vacant for rent. The stock total and tenure split describe households and structures, not the current pool of choices. These counts do not show turnover, condition, price, bedroom mix or current availability. In particular, a “vacant for rent” classification cannot demonstrate that a named unit is available, suitable, priced at the index, or offered on particular lease terms.
Place comparisons frame this ZIP but do not substitute for it. For wider Zillow asking-rent context, Jacksonville city’s index is below this ZIP’s; Duval County’s index is $1,616; and the Jacksonville, FL metro’s index is $1,708, also below the ZIP reading. The city, county and metro figures are wider-scope context, not local observations, and each must retain that scope when used in a comparison. Jacksonville city and Duval County also have lower ACS median gross-rent figures than the matched ZCTA, a separate survey comparison that retains the occupancy and utility distinctions already noted. None of these contrasts identifies conditions at a building, bedroom tier or listing.
Several limits remain after the aggregate comparisons. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,860 for momentum, 1,215 for stability and 1,745 for the balanced score, with a lower rank indicating a higher position. They summarize the historical series only; they are not forecasts or investment recommendations and cannot establish future rent, value or performance. Before applying any ZIP figure to a property, verify the advertised rent, bedroom count, availability date, lease term, utilities, fees and concessions directly. Then distinguish the quoted listing price from ZORI, ACS gross rent and the HUD standard. What do the specific listing and lease terms show that the ZIP-level measures cannot?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest index increased from its comparable prior-year reading, while the medium-length annualized record remains slightly negative and the longer record is positive. That divergence supports the accelerating label without establishing a future path. Complete coverage supports review of the history, but variability and drawdown mean the current index is more informative as a benchmark than as a precise property quote.","title":"Recent lift contrasts with the medium-term path"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. The Zillow series is a blended asking-rent index; ACS reports occupied renter homes and selected utilities; HUD provides an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Similar headline levels therefore do not prove agreement. The matched ZCTA also remains a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, which limits direct address-level interpretation.","title":"The rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Bedroom values are modelled by applying the local HUD size ladder to the ZIP index. They are useful for comparing relative bedroom tiers within the model, but they are not observed rents for studios or larger homes. The local HUD standard should likewise not be read as a quoted asking price. A specific listing can differ in rent, included utilities, fees, availability, and lease structure.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates"},{"body":"The income screen, burden share, tenure split, and vacancy figures are aggregated indicators rather than evidence about a single home or applicant. The income calculation is mechanical and does not set qualification. Vacancy classifications do not show active availability, and burden measures do not identify a listed home’s cost. Direct verification of listing facts is necessary before applying ZIP-level evidence to a leasing decision.","title":"Affordability and supply remain aggregate signals"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index combines observed asking rents across rental types, so it can differ from a particular home's quote because of property features, lease timing, utility treatment, fees, concessions, and availability.","The ACS ZCTA estimate represents a multiyear survey of occupied renter homes, and the ZCTA is not a USPS delivery ZIP; neither source establishes a live price for an address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, and the bedroom ladder here is a modelled scaling exercise; neither measure confirms measured bedroom rents, utility inclusions, or lease terms.","Vacancy, renter burden, income, and stock measures describe groups of households or units. They cannot prove a particular unit’s condition, availability, affordability, applicant eligibility, or ultimate lease payment."],"qa":[{"a":"They observe different universes. ZORI summarizes asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over a survey period and includes selected utilities in gross rent. The labels match geographically for this report, but a ZCTA remains statistical and does not equal a USPS delivery ZIP. Similar levels are therefore informative context, not confirmation that the measures are interchangeable.","q":"Why can the current asking-rent index and survey rent be close without being the same measure?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure starts with the ZIP-wide ZORI and applies the local HUD bedroom ladder as a relative scaling relationship. That construction preserves the ZIP index as the anchor while changing the bedroom proportion. It does not collect listing rents by bedroom, and it does not convert HUD’s administrative standard into an observed market quote.","q":"How were the bedroom figures constructed?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the index and divides by the stated rent share, creating a comparison point with the area’s household-income median. It does not account for a household’s actual income, debts, assets, lease requirements, utility obligations, fees, guarantors, or a property owner’s screening process. It is not applicant advice.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine who qualifies?"},{"a":"Confirm the advertised rent, bedroom count, availability date, lease duration, included and excluded utilities, recurring fees, one-time charges, concessions, and stated occupancy terms. Compare those facts separately with the index, the ACS survey measure, and the HUD standard. Also confirm whether the advertised home is actually available rather than inferring availability from an aggregate vacancy classification.","q":"What property-level checks best complement these ZIP-level figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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