Rather than presenting a simple low-rent signal, ZIP 32254 shows a tension between its current asking-rent level and its household-income screen. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,318 per month, while the matched ZCTA median household income is $34,953. Annualizing that asking-rent index produces a 45.2% rent-to-income comparison, and the arithmetic income needed to hold that index at 30% of gross income is $52,720. That 30% screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The five-digit label 32254 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The rent-history record points to continued, but slowing, upward movement rather than a uniformly accelerating path. Exact same-month one-year rent change was 1.4%, compared with annualized three-year change of 1.8% and annualized five-year change of 5.7%. Thus, the latest direction confirms that the asking-rent index remains above its year-earlier level, yet it breaks from the materially faster longer-run pace shown by the five-year measure. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.0%, which supports moderate confidence in the current snapshot but cautions against treating a single month as a fixed market condition. A separate maximum drawdown of 2.3% indicates that historical declines occurred but were limited in the observed series. Coverage reached 97.1% across 67 observations and 64 consecutive returns. The transparent national discovery ranks were 1,695 for momentum, 1,622 for stability, and 1,875 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher; these are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment ratings.
Source definitions explain why several rent figures should not be collapsed into one measure. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS median gross rent is $1,187 in the matched Census ZCTA. The current asking index is 11.0% above that ACS figure, but ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s local fair-market-rent ladder is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard; it is not asking rent. The gap between the Zillow and ACS values therefore describes different evidence universes rather than a direct measure of a lease’s change or quality.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder, so they are not measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,075 for a studio, $1,095 for one bedroom, $1,318 for two bedrooms, $1,622 for three bedrooms, and $2,038 for four bedrooms. Their main use is to show the relative bedroom ladder implied by the local HUD standard and the ZIP asking-rent index. They cannot establish the asking price, achieved rent, utilities, concession terms, or availability for any particular unit, even when a listed home has the same bedroom count.
ACS housing and burden data broaden the affordability tension but remain survey evidence, not proof about a specific household or home. Of 6,243 housing units in the ZCTA, 5,421 were occupied and 822 were vacant, producing a 13.2% vacancy rate. The stock includes 5,531 single-family units and only 35 large-multifamily units, a composition that limits how much an apartment-only reading can represent the entire area. Renter households numbered 2,724, equal to a 50.2% renter share of occupied homes. Among those renters, 1,442, or 52.9%, were estimated to spend 30% or more of income on gross rent. That burden measure includes the ACS gross-rent definition and does not prove that any available unit is affordable or unaffordable to a particular renter.
Wider geographies place the ZIP’s asking-rent index below several contextual benchmarks, but they do not replace direct ZIP evidence. In asking-rent context, Jacksonville city scope is $1,599.67, Duval County scope is $1,616, and Jacksonville, FL metro scope is $1,708. Each of those figures covers a broader geography than ZIP 32254 and should be read only as context in the same source universe. The ZIP’s lower current ZORI does not erase its income-screen tension, because the ZIP income figure comes from the matched ZCTA survey rather than from city, county, or metro household data.
Redfin supplies a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, and it describes for-sale transactions rather than rental transactions. ZIP 32254’s median sold price was $154,715, down 28.4% year over year; 72 homes sold, and median days on market were 109. Inventory stood at 98 homes, equivalent to 4.1 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 95.2%, while 12.9% of sales closed above list price. These resale liquidity and pricing signals challenge any assumption that the modestly positive current rent path maps cleanly onto for-sale valuation conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price gives a 10.2% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property economics. The sharp resale price decline contrasts with the positive one-year asking-rent change, while the income and burden screens remain unresolved by either series.
Several limits matter before using this evidence at property level. Zillow’s index does not identify a specific home’s achieved rent, lease duration, included utilities, deposits, concessions, condition, or availability date. The ACS ZCTA survey has its own sampling uncertainty and geography, while HUD’s bedroom ladder is an administrative standard rather than a rental comp set. Redfin’s resale figures should be checked against the actual sale date, transaction status, list-price history, days marketed, and property characteristics of a candidate home. A property-level review should also verify bedroom count, unit type, utility responsibility, occupancy status, and current asking terms. None of these ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, or resale measures forecasts future rents, resale prices, or an individual property outcome.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is below the broader Jacksonville city, Duval County, and Jacksonville metro context figures, yet it remains high relative to the matched ZCTA median household income. The required-income calculation and ACS renter-burden estimate both indicate that a low relative ZIP asking-rent level should not automatically be interpreted as a low household-cost pressure signal.","title":"Income screen is the central tension"},{"body":"The one-year same-month change is positive, but it is below both the three-year and five-year annualized changes. That pattern indicates recent moderation relative to the longer historical path. Limited drawdown and moderate monthly variability improve continuity in the history, while still leaving a single current ZORI observation less definitive than a stable lease-level rent record.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has moderated"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are derived by applying the local HUD bedroom relationship to ZIP ZORI. They are useful for relative sizing across bedroom counts, but they are not observed asking rents, signed rents, or property-specific comparables. Utility treatment, unit condition, concessions, and availability can all create differences from the modelled estimates.","title":"Bedroom rents are a modelled ladder"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record shows a substantially lower median sold price than a year earlier alongside lengthy marketing time and below-list average sale outcomes. That for-sale evidence is distinct from rental data, but it creates a meaningful cross-market tension: modestly positive asking-rent movement does not by itself establish similar strength in resale pricing or liquidity.","title":"Resale evidence does not move in lockstep with rent history"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index rather than a list of leases or an achieved-rent dataset, so it may not represent terms, utilities, concessions, or availability for a particular property.","ACS values apply to a matched Census ZCTA five-year survey of occupied homes, not precisely to USPS delivery ZIP boundaries or the current pool of available rentals, and sampling uncertainty affects interpretation.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZIP ZORI and HUD administrative standards, so it can be directionally useful while remaining unsuitable as proof of observed rents for a specific bedroom count or unit.","Redfin resale statistics cover direct ZIP for-sale transactions over a rolling period and should not be converted into rental transaction evidence, a forecast, or a conclusion about the economics of an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD fair market rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Differences among them do not by themselves identify an error or a change in one particular lease.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"The history shows positive one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month movement, but the latest one-year pace is slower than the longer measures. Monthly-return variability and the historical drawdown indicate that the series has moved around its trend. The current index is informative, yet it should be viewed as one backward-looking observation rather than a prediction.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates, created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They do not document listing rents, signed leases, concessions, utility inclusions, or vacancy for an individual bedroom type. A unit-level review is required to compare a specific property with those estimates.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual measured rents in ZIP 32254?"},{"a":"The ratio simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price reported by Redfin. It is a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, lease collections, or future performance. Because Redfin measures resale activity rather than rentals, it should remain separate from rental-market evidence.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":927.13433},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":926.681241},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":927.510863},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":934.790102},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":945.536623},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":960.974196},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":964.43359},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":999.119635},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1008.809726},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1030.014962},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1063.501138},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1081.042691},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1102.918945},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1120.219107},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1145.730823},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1163.550781},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1180.76129},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1170.672763},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1170.922706},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1180.237064},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1203.41829},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1227.253083},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1215.041351},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1223.94478},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1235.349928},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1249.863502},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1239.271125},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1238.376087},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1231.234682},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1244.051188},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1247.834532},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1257.627568},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1258.947022},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1257.747222},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1263.174874},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1249.551478},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1249.137077},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1257.902143},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1270.066081},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1275.637736},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1279.277025},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1297.65592},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1307.335967},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1306.956948},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1285.063189},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1283.428636},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1277.258971},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1286.907759},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1295.169421},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1296.634178},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1304.122207},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1301.869386},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1314.007181},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1306.550872},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1299.616125},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1301.937076},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1320.18662},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1324.399328},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1334.636155},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1337.242071},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1333.24578},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1329.001572},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1322.810708},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1325.226224},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1318.415421},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1315.808407},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1317.93852}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":69,"coverageRatio":0.9710144927536232,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1299.616125,"endRent":1317.93852,"change":0.014098313069176527,"cagr":0.014098313069176527},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1247.834532,"endRent":1317.93852,"change":0.05618051608784924,"cagr":0.018386696101981626},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":999.119635,"endRent":1317.93852,"change":0.3190998093036175,"cagr":0.05695264891226004}},"maxDrawdown":-0.023006324892153707,"annualizedVolatility":0.029958154975120943,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}