The five-digit label 32257 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Its central tension is cross-market: in June 2026, Zillow ZORI stood at $1,475 per month, 0.56% below the same month a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reported a $362,918 median sold price, 8.33% higher year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median price equals 4.88%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level economic measure. These unlike movements make it important not to merge the rent index with for-sale evidence.
ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a signed lease rate nor a bedroom-specific observation. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder: $1,202 for a studio, $1,229 for one bedroom, $1,475 for two bedrooms, $1,821 for three, and $2,276 for four. They are not measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR benchmark is $1,620, an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. That distinction makes the ladder useful for a transparent size adjustment, not for claiming separate observed market rents.
The ACS lens answers a different question. The ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes puts median gross rent at $1,518, including selected utilities; this is not the asking-rent universe behind ZORI. Within the estimated 7,625 renter households, 4,536 were at or above the rent-burden threshold, or 59.49%. The arithmetic 30% required-income screen produces $59,000 of required annual income for ZIP ZORI, compared with a $75,780 median household income and a 23.36% asking-rent-to-income relationship. It is a screen, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden statistic does not determine any particular household’s situation.
Housing stock sets bounds on how much a ZIP-wide index can say about any offering. The matched ZCTA estimate contains 18,834 housing units: 1,001 vacant, a 5.31% vacancy rate. Of the vacant total, 412 are classified as for rent; that category is not evidence that a given unit is available, priced at ZORI, or suitable for a given tenant. The stock includes 11,705 single-family units and 2,085 large multifamily units, while renters occupy 42.76% of occupied homes. Given this mix, the blended ZORI cannot be read as one building type’s rent.
Wider geography provides a price reference, not a substitute for this ZIP. The City of Jacksonville wider-context asking-rent level was $1,599.67, Duval County’s wider-context asking-rent level was $1,616, and the Jacksonville, FL metro wider-context asking-rent level was $1,708; each exceeds the local ZORI. City, county, and metro figures carry those respective scopes in the same way that their renter, income, and vacancy measures do. They cannot identify the mix, condition, lease terms, or availability behind a listing in this ZIP, and they should not be treated as ZIP rental observations.
The rent history does not extend the resale story; it is a backward-looking sequence of direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations through the June endpoint. Exact same-month annualized change was -0.56% over one year and -0.53% over three years, versus 3.81% annualized across five years. Recent cooling therefore confirms the intermediate direction but breaks from the longer positive path. Coverage reached 99.28%, supporting a nearly complete history rather than a forecast. The annualized variability of monthly ZORI changes is 2.90%, so a single current reading deserves context; the index’s deepest peak-to-trough decline was -3.80%, a separate indication of past downside movement. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,573 for momentum, 1,440 for stability, and 2,480 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These ranks describe discovery, not a recommendation.
Resale liquidity is visible only in Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, not in rental transactions. It recorded 130 homes sold, a median 56 days on market, 140 homes of inventory, and 3.3 months of supply. Its sale-to-list signals were a 97.81% average sale-to-list ratio and an 11.92% share sold above list. Together with the reported price increase, the resale data challenge a simple reading of the cooling rent history, yet the below-list average and marketing time also show that the price change alone is not a complete liquidity description. No signal here establishes rent, tenant demand, or economics for a specific property.
All comparisons have material limits. ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, ACS is a ZCTA survey estimate with its own time window and utility treatment, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a ZIP resale series; none is a property appraisal, lease quote, or forecast. A property-level review would need to verify the current advertised rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, recurring fees, availability date, and whether the physical unit matches the listing description. It should separately confirm relevant sale records’ property type, condition, timing, and listing history before relating them to a rental decision. The available vacancy, burden, and price figures describe aggregates rather than proof about any one home.
","findings":[{"body":"In June 2026, ZIP ZORI fell 0.56% year over year to $1,475, while the direct Redfin ZIP resale median sold price rose 8.33% to $362,918. That divergence is the principal evidence tension. ZORI tracks blended asking rents and Redfin tracks sales, so this pattern is a source-separated snapshot rather than evidence of a shared market mechanism, a forecast, or a future course.","title":"Cooling rent index, firmer resale price"},{"body":"The local ladder produces modelled estimates from $1,202 for a studio to $2,276 for four bedrooms, with $1,475 for two bedrooms. Each estimate scales the ZIP ZORI by the HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s $1,620 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent; therefore, neither set provides measured bedroom-specific ZIP asking rents.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"ACS estimates $1,518 median gross rent including selected utilities and puts 59.49% of renter households at or above its rent-burden threshold. The separate 30% ZORI arithmetic gives a $59,000 annual-income screen, below the $75,780 median household income. The comparison is useful for scale, but it neither qualifies an applicant nor proves a particular unit is affordable.","title":"Income screen and renter burden answer separate questions"},{"body":"The Zillow history shows short and intermediate same-month declines against a positive five-year path, while its near-complete coverage supports use as context for the current index. Redfin adds a direct three-month sales read: homes sold, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. These observations clarify past rent movement and current resale liquidity, not property-level economics or forecasts.","title":"History contextualizes rent; Redfin contextualizes sales"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended asking-rent construction and backward-looking history can move differently from the rent advertised for a specific home, especially when unit size, lease terms, utilities, and property type are unknown.","ACS renter counts, gross rent, and burden originate in a five-year ZCTA survey and include selected utilities; they cannot establish a current household’s payment, income, or burden.","Bedroom figures are modelled from the ZIP ZORI and HUD ladder, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative; neither source supplies observed asking rents for individual bedroom categories.","Redfin’s rolling three-month data are resale observations, so median price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list measures cannot be used as rental transactions or property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"It is the June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It does not represent a signed lease, an ACS gross-rent survey result, an administrative HUD standard, or a measured rent for a particular bedroom count, building, or property. It is an index of asking-rent conditions for its stated month.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS is a 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is an observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. Different scopes, time constructions, utility treatment, and statistical methods mean their dollar figures address different evidence universes and are not interchangeable.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent not expected to match ZORI exactly?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They use the local HUD ladder to scale the overall ZIP ZORI, so they are not observed bedroom-rent measurements. The 30% calculation simply translates the index into an annual income screen; it is not an affordability guarantee or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"How should the bedroom figures and 30% screen be read?"},{"a":"Redfin contributes a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale view of median sold price, price movement, sales volume, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Those describe for-sale transactions and liquidity. They do not provide rental comparable transactions, a lease quote, or property-specific rental economics, even when compared with ZORI.","q":"What does the direct Redfin resale observation add?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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