ZIP 32258 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; the ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,795 per month, down 0.2% from the prior year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a particular home. The small decline supports the packet’s cooling classification, but it does not state the availability, condition, utilities, or terms of any listing.
The cooling label has a longer but nonuniform record behind it. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes show a one-year decline of 0.2%, a three-year decline of 0.7%, and a five-year gain of 2.5%. Thus, the recent direction breaks from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. Monthly rent movements have produced 2.6% annualized variability, which warrants moderate confidence in the broad index level but less confidence in any one-month snapshot. A 4.5% maximum drawdown also shows that measured rent levels have retreated before. Complete coverage across 138 observations supports the history’s continuity. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks are 2,532 for momentum, 907 for stability, and 2,147 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The asking index should not be merged with the matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year estimate of $1,928 median gross rent. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. The difference therefore reflects distinct populations and definitions, not a contradiction between two readings of the same lease market. HUD is separate again: its relevant two-bedroom administrative standard is $2,240, and the ZIP asking index equals 80.1% of that standard. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are bedroom-specific administrative benchmarks, not asking rents.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents. In ascending bedroom order, the modelled monthly ladder is $1,466, $1,499, $1,795, $2,212, and $2,773. This creates an internally consistent size screen, but a current listing can still differ because the model does not observe unit condition, lease structure, or included items. Applying the 30% rent-to-income arithmetic to the ZIP-wide asking index produces a required annual income of $71,800. The ZCTA survey’s median household income is $102,204, making the asking-rent-to-income screen 21.1%. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Housing-stock and burden data add a household perspective that neither ZORI nor HUD can supply. Single-family units outnumber large multifamily units in the ZCTA housing stock, while the overall vacancy rate is 3.5%; neither fact proves availability for a particular rental. There are 6,151 renter-occupied homes, and the renter share is below one-half of occupied housing. Within the surveyed renter population, 2,907 households, or 47.3%, are reported at or above the source’s rent-burden threshold. That burden reading identifies broad distributional pressure among occupied renter households, but it cannot establish whether a particular unit is affordable after utilities, fees, concessions, or household-specific income are considered.
For wider context only, the City of Jacksonville rent context is about $1,600, the Duval County rent context is $1,616, and the Jacksonville, FL metro rent context is $1,708. The ZIP asking index sits above each of those broader benchmarks, but city, county, and metro figures are not substitutes for ZIP-level measurements or unit-level comparables. Their scopes differ from both the ZIP ZORI index and the matched ZCTA ACS survey, so they are best used to frame relative position rather than to overwrite the local reading. The higher ZIP index alongside measured cooling is a useful reminder that level and direction are different questions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. The median sold price is $384,223, up 5.7% year over year; 120 homes sold with a median marketing time of 44 days. Inventory stands at 149 homes and months of supply at 3.8. Sale-to-list evidence is less than full-price on average at 98.3%, while 11.1% of sales closed above list. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price yields a 5.6% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property economics or returns. Resale prices rising while the asking-rent record is cooling challenges any simple conclusion that rent softness and for-sale conditions are moving in lockstep.
Important limits remain. ZORI does not identify the actual rent achieved for a specific property, ACS results are survey estimates with sampling uncertainty, HUD standards are administrative, and the Redfin figures summarize resale observations rather than rental performance. Concrete property-level checks should verify the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, lease duration, included utilities, recurring fees, concessions, availability date, and whether the delivery ZIP matches the relevant geography. For a resale comparison, verify transaction status, property type, condition, sale date, and listing history rather than applying aggregate ZIP signals to one home. Which unit-specific lease and transaction details would materially change the conclusion suggested by these aggregate screens?
","findings":[{"body":"Recent annualized same-month changes are negative at the short and intermediate horizons, whereas the longer horizon remains positive. That divergence makes cooling a present condition rather than a complete description of the recorded path. Complete historical coverage improves confidence that the pattern is observed rather than missing-data noise, while the drawdown and variability argue against treating one current index observation as a unit-specific conclusion.","title":"Cooling is recent, not universal across the full record"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards answer different questions. ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across rental types; ACS describes occupied renter households and includes selected utilities; HUD provides administrative bedroom-specific benchmarks. The modelled bedroom figures use the local HUD ladder to scale ZORI, so they help organize size comparisons without establishing actual asking rents for any bedroom category.","title":"Rent sources should answer separate questions"},{"body":"The required-income figure is a simple rent-to-income calculation at the stated threshold, not guidance about affordability or a qualification test. The area’s household income statistic and burden statistic also describe different populations and summary concepts. The surveyed burden share signals distributional pressure, but it cannot determine the budget, utilities, or rent burden of a particular applicant or unit.","title":"The income screen and burden data are useful but limited"},{"body":"The resale record is directionally at odds with the cooling asking-rent record: median sold prices rose even as the rent index edged down. Its transaction count, selling time, supply, and sale-to-list measures are direct ZIP for-sale observations. They can frame market liquidity, but they are not rental transactions, expense data, or proof that the cross-source rent-price screening ratio applies to a specific property.","title":"Resale evidence conflicts with a simple cooling interpretation"}],"risks":["The current ZORI value blends property types and listings, so it may not match a specific home’s bedroom count, lease duration, condition, included utilities, concessions, or timing.","ACS ZCTA estimates describe a statistical area and are subject to survey sampling uncertainty. They should not be treated as a census of USPS delivery ZIP households or current lease terms.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks rather than observed asking rents. Scaling ZORI with the HUD ladder creates useful modelled estimates, but cannot establish actual bedroom-specific rents.","The Redfin resale series summarizes for-sale transactions over a rolling window. It cannot establish rental demand, achieved rent, operating costs, financing outcomes, or economics for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"A ZCTA is Census’s statistical approximation built for tabulation, while a USPS delivery ZIP is a mail-routing construct. The matching label permits a geographic comparison in this packet, but it does not make their boundaries or household coverage identical. That is why the ACS figures are labeled ZCTA survey context rather than direct USPS ZIP measurements.","q":"Why are the ZIP and ZCTA described separately?"},{"a":"A bedroom estimate begins with the ZIP-wide ZORI and applies the relative structure of the local HUD bedroom ladder. That method produces a consistent scale across sizes, but it does not observe listings or signed leases for each bedroom category. Unit condition, amenities, fees, concessions, and lease terms can cause actual advertised rents to differ.","q":"Why are the bedroom rents called modelled estimates?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and applies the stated rent-share threshold. It does not use an applicant’s verified income, debts, household size, credit criteria, utility obligations, fees, or landlord rules. It is therefore a standardized arithmetic comparison rather than financial advice or a qualification determination.","q":"Does the required-income screen show whether a renter qualifies?"},{"a":"Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing by the median sold price produces a cross-source screening ratio only. It excludes a property’s financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, unit condition, actual achieved rent, and transaction-specific attributes. Because those omitted items are not supplied, the ratio cannot describe a property’s economics, returns, or likely outcome.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1179.423033},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1173.453023},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1172.253007},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1175.369146},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1186.263081},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1190.566014},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1194.152071},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1197.242862},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1200.245171},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1204.160852},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1195.00685},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1200.980596},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1201.886134},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1217.265236},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1220.362449},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1220.352629},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1215.910987},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1215.426209},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1219.262754},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1224.003842},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1226.619326},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1227.316816},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1229.123569},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1233.690542},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1238.215658},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1241.340642},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1240.670074},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1248.711364},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1253.822999},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1260.668603},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1262.750028},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1265.51183},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1274.9794},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1282.436151},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1292.989952},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1283.192964},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1290.299423},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1291.25831},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1303.057813},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1302.724771},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1304.966792},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1309.496665},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1314.525093},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1316.25228},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1307.960633},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1308.832855},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1315.654894},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1332.11021},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1334.138561},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1335.7153},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1335.490468},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1340.721238},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1346.141751},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1348.239128},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1351.516584},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1356.821401},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1367.020601},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1371.504814},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1369.920373},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1369.830799},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1372.787447},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1378.99089},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1387.48383},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1381.19636},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1384.510794},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1369.335671},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1371.208985},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1366.208554},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1385.209008},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1397.134681},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1417.99225},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1430.751226},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1453.166239},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1471.42062},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1481.403735},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1510.073742},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1542.237349},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1585.912155},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1633.394379},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1682.868349},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1727.880411},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1761.169977},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1773.913809},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1785.821305},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1785.408625},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1803.658784},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1817.269314},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1830.167569},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1830.887976},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1842.608476},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1853.010288},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1856.647783},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1844.920742},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1836.435887},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1830.783805},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1825.746459},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1824.614374},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1827.234076},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1845.182714},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1844.760825},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1838.806691},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1833.529602},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1817.546942},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1813.046846},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1784.999717},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1782.591908},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1794.078465},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1814.057849},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1830.073945},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1824.760614},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1812.556726},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1811.979594},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1816.366651},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1803.561415},{"period":"2024-07-0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