ZIP 32277’s current asking-rent signal is positive, yet its pace is materially cooler than its longer record. At the stated June endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,469, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it was 2.6% higher than a year earlier. Exact same-month annualized changes were 2.6% over one year, 1.4% over three years, and 5.4% over five years. The latest direction therefore confirms that asking rents remain above prior-year levels, while breaking from the considerably faster five-year path. The five-digit 32277 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The rent-history record argues for measured confidence in any single current index reading rather than a strong trend conclusion. Annualized variability in month-to-month rent returns was 3.2%, indicating that readings have moved enough over time that one month should not be treated as a complete market description. Separately, the historical peak-to-trough maximum drawdown was 3.8%, showing a limited but real past retreat. Coverage reached 99.3%, supporting broad observation continuity. Transparent national discovery-rank positions among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,467 for momentum, 1,887 for stability, and 1,837 for the balanced measure. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence that future rents will follow the historical path.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled ZIP estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimates of $1,205 for a studio, $1,224 for one bedroom, $1,469 for two bedrooms, $1,812 for three bedrooms, and $2,272 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom figure is $1,500. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so it provides the scaling structure but does not establish what available units are being advertised for. Likewise, the modelled ladder cannot identify a building’s actual floor plan, utility treatment, lease term, condition, or concession package.
The matched ACS five-year survey describes a different rental universe: occupied renter homes, with gross rent including selected utilities. Its median gross rent was $1,378 with a $64 margin of error, placing Zillow’s current asking-rent index 6.6% above that survey measure. Median household income was $61,554 with a $6,690 margin of error. Dividing the Zillow asking-rent figure into a 30% income screen produces required annual income of $58,760; compared mechanically with the area median income, that is a 28.6% screen. This is arithmetic, not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reported that 62.3% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent, but that aggregate burden result does not prove the burden of any particular unit or household.
The ZCTA housing base contained 14,089 housing units, including 959 vacant units, for a 6.8% vacancy rate. Renters accounted for 49.1% of occupied homes. Stock was tilted toward single-family structures, with 8,526 units, while large multifamily structures accounted for 1,570 units; those counts describe broad housing composition rather than the availability of a specific rental. For wider Zillow asking-rent context, Jacksonville city scope was about $1,600, Duval County scope was $1,616, and Jacksonville, FL metro scope was $1,708, each above the ZIP index. Those city, county, and metro figures are contextual benchmarks only and cannot replace ZIP-level rental evidence or establish differences among properties within 32277.
Resale evidence introduces a counterweight to the still-positive rent history. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $296,933, down 1.5% from a year earlier. The period recorded 71 homes sold and a median marketing time of 54 days. Inventory was 96 homes, equivalent to 4.1 months of supply. Sale-to-list results were also restrained: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, while 17.4% of homes sold above list price. These are direct ZIP resale and liquidity observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property operating results. The softer sale-price and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple reading that positive asking-rent growth alone captures the full housing-market picture.
Annualizing the ZIP asking-rent index and dividing it by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 5.9% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or estimate of an owner’s economics. Its narrow value is to place the current rent index and the resale price in one arithmetic frame. The tension is clear: the rent index has increased over recent comparison periods, while the direct resale observation shows a year-over-year median-price decline and slower-looking sale-to-list outcomes. Neither source establishes causation, and the ratio does not resolve whether a particular home can command the indexed rent, whether its costs differ from a broad benchmark, or whether its resale experience matches the ZIP median.
The available evidence is strongest for describing broad ZIP conditions and weakest for evaluating an individual address. Zillow cannot confirm a particular unit’s achieved rent; ACS is a survey of occupied homes rather than live listings; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin’s evidence concerns completed resale transactions. Concrete property-level checks would need to confirm the current advertised rent, bedroom count, lease duration, utilities, fees, concessions, occupancy status, and the comparability of any nearby completed sales by date, condition, and property type. The unresolved decision question is whether those address-level facts align with the ZIP’s moderated rent-growth record and the more restrained resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index was $1,469 at the stated endpoint. Its one-year gain was positive, but the three-year annualized pace was lower than both the one-year and five-year measures. This supports a description of moderated upward rent movement rather than a uniformly accelerating trend. The history is descriptive only and does not project future rent changes.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The ACS median gross-rent figure is based on occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The gap between the two measures is useful context, but it should not be read as a direct measure of lease growth, a specific building’s rent, or the cost of a comparable vacant unit.","title":"Survey rent and asking-rent index answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price, marketing times measured in weeks rather than immediate turnover, and an average sale-to-list result below full list price. Those for-sale indicators do not measure rental demand, but they challenge any conclusion based only on positive asking-rent history or the rent-to-price screening ratio.","title":"Resale liquidity creates a meaningful counter-signal"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a substantial renter share, a mostly single-family housing base, and an aggregate rent-burden share above half of renter households. These are area-level conditions rather than proof about a unit’s availability or a household’s finances. A usable property analysis still depends on lease terms, utility obligations, fees, concessions, condition, and comparable nearby transactions.","title":"Housing composition and burden require address-level follow-through"}],"risks":["A ZIP-level asking-rent index blends rental types and cannot establish the advertised or achieved rent for an individual address, especially where unit condition, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease length differ.","ACS gross rent and rent-burden figures are survey estimates for occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, not live-listing evidence and not proof that any particular household or unit faces the reported burden.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from the ZIP index using HUD administrative standards. It should not be treated as measured rent by bedroom count or as a substitute for unit-specific listings.","The resale dataset concerns completed for-sale transactions during a rolling period. Its price and liquidity metrics cannot be converted into rental performance, ownership costs, net income, or expected investment results."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. A difference does not by itself identify rent growth, unit quality, or lease terms.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent figure differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The estimates cannot establish the actual asking price, floor plan, utility arrangement, condition, or concessions for a specific property.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that divides the current ZIP asking-rent index by 30% to show the annual income amount associated with that ratio. It is not affordability advice, a tenant underwriting method, or an applicant qualification rule. Individual households may have materially different incomes, expenses, subsidies, utilities, and lease obligations.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"The ratio only annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price. It is a cross-source screening measure, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. It should be considered alongside the resale period’s sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list evidence without treating sales data as rental transactions.","q":"How should the rent-to-price screening ratio be used alongside Redfin data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":830.567135},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":836.452368},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":845.027078},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":845.50285},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":855.2473},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":860.277172},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":859.043869},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":858.389239},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":857.750354},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":863.499155},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":866.981621},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":871.169145},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":876.56538},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":869.738634},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":875.987898},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":869.340093},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":875.427313},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":876.43396},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":882.295968},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":885.793973},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":891.801582},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":895.50801},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":894.551344},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":895.247376},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":893.746441},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":901.837094},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":901.196834},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":905.021486},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":906.657592},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":918.32699},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":924.33159},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":925.905198},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":926.625073},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":931.164412},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":946.42783},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":956.258435},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":952.966206},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":950.609069},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":954.025824},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":971.775696},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":984.254949},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":994.733313},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":998.985288},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1002.79933},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1002.51673},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1003.325211},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1002.04842},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1001.756536},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1010.596384},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1018.190367},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1023.275124},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1017.159278},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1014.032358},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1008.753136},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1010.208915},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1014.815582},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1022.26404},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1027.551936},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1029.888504},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1034.052203},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1037.933315},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1014.367143},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1013.584838},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1011.936915},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1033.057698},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1047.43904},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1054.426955},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1063.583891},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1065.649919},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1067.42346},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1058.773732},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1065.681768},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1077.169793},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1096.508006},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1105.9249},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1118.287343},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1130.803574},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1156.124837},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1183.156737},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1209.693888},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1249.471012},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1290.993251},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1332.186001},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1362.227255},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1396.27316},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1412.46962},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1420.555204},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1422.731097},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1438.95428},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1443.389361},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1454.060171},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1451.124267},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1445.325294},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1434.819619},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1452.699343},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1446.203193},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1429.45083},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1410.504992},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1414.191746},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1422.773892},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1410.252507},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1412.208695},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1409.996177},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1418.235518},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1415.598244},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1417.584798},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1401.261448},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1410.258905},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1421.132982},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1445.456177},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1452.353129},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1462.870153},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1458.569665},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1454.422223},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1441.946533},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1433.069527},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1420.533896},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1421.361972},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1427.322856},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1445.78772},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1436.561322},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1430.100005},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1407.398472},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1413.641714},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1431.63131},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1438.044},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1450.754887},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1457.897971},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1472.615625},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1475.356654},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1477.136874},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1461.919223},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1469.010446},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1468.728766},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1485.127331},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1476.5034},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1469.102673}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":137,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":0.9927536231884058,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1431.63131,"endRent":1469.102673,"change":0.02617389179620555,"cagr":0.02617389179620555},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.252507,"endRent":1469.102673,"change":0.04173023320851299,"cagr":0.013720952152019628},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1130.803574,"endRent":1469.102673,"change":0.2991669877760752,"cagr":0.05373885744881046}},"maxDrawdown":-0.037919757188456304,"annualizedVolatility":0.03177045728473085,"consecutiveReturnCount":135}}