ZIP 32304 enters June 2026 with a Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) of $1,348 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market index rather than the price or availability of a specified home. Its exact same-month advance was 1.5% over one year, versus annualized same-month gains of 3.5% over three years and 7.2% over five years. This is a cooling pattern: rents remained above the year-earlier index, but the latest pace does not confirm the stronger longer-run path. These measurements describe history through the stated endpoint only; they do not forecast rents or support an investment conclusion.
The history is sufficiently complete to make deceleration meaningful but not to make a single current value certain. The record has 99.3% coverage across 137 observations and 135 consecutive monthly returns, and annualized volatility of monthly returns was 3.0%, with a maximum drawdown of -2.5%. Those figures indicate movement around the prior path even though recent direction is positive, so the current index merits moderate, not absolute, snapshot confidence. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,293 for momentum, 1,662 for stability, and 1,507 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking discovery markers, not forecasts, grades, or recommendations.
The ZORI and Census result answer different questions. The matched 32304 Census ZCTA in the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,176 for occupied renter homes. Gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is an observed asking-rent index; the current asking index is therefore 14.6% above the ACS median, a difference that should not be read as a change estimate or as a quote for a unit. Both measures summarize broad populations and periods rather than a common, contemporaneous group of homes. Although the five-digit label 32304 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match, a ZCTA is a statistical area used for Census tabulation and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Neither dataset specifies an individual property's rent.
Income and burden create the sharper affordability tension. The ZCTA ACS median household income is $32,348; applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the current asking index produces required annual income of $53,920 and an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 50.0%. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The same ACS survey estimates that 10,619 of 16,646 renter households, or 63.8%, spend at least that threshold on gross rent. That describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the costs, utilities, income, or burden of a particular unit or household.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the provided local HUD ladder: $1,094 for a studio, $1,200 for one bedroom, $1,348 for two, $1,669 for three, and $1,785 for four. The FY 2026 local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,352, close to the modelled two-bedroom estimate, but HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The supplied methodology permits a ZIP SAFMR or county-derived ladder; neither form establishes what a listed unit will charge. Use the sequence as a proportional cross-bedroom framework attached to ZORI, not as a set of observed local medians.
ACS housing counts show a renter-dominant but not unit-specific supply picture. Of 23,676 housing units in the ZCTA, 4,435 were vacant, an 18.7% vacancy rate, while renter-occupied homes represented 86.5% of occupied homes. The same inventory reports 9,530 units in large multifamily structures. These counts may help frame the ZIP's tenure and stock mix, but they do not prove that a particular property is vacant, rentable, comparable in condition, or available at the ZORI. They are survey stock-status categories rather than direct property listings, so the data cannot identify which homes are marketed at the current index. Vacancy categories and observed asking rent remain separate measurements.
As wider context only, the Tallahassee city context rent is $1,507.48, the Leon County context rent is $1,507, and the Tallahassee, FL metro context rent is $1,513; all sit above the ZIP ZORI but are not ZIP observations. Context cannot resolve differences in rental mix, utilities, survey coverage, or the administrative HUD basis. Before using this profile for a property comparison, verify the address's ZIP/ZCTA treatment, advertised asking rent, bedroom category, included utilities, lease term, fees, and current availability. Reconcile those property facts with the relevant source universe rather than substituting ACS, HUD, or wider-context values for a listing. Which of those checks would most change the comparison for the specific property under review?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 32304 ZORI was $1,348. Its 1.5% exact same-month one-year change remained positive but was slower than the 3.5% three-year and 7.2% five-year annualized rates. The 99.3% history coverage supports the historical comparison, while 3.0% annualized volatility and a -2.5% maximum drawdown limit confidence in interpreting one index snapshot as a fixed current rent.","title":"Cooling, not decline"},{"body":"ACS portrays a renter-heavy occupied-household population: 16,646 renter households were 86.5% of occupied homes, and 63.8% of those renter households were at or above the 30% gross-rent burden threshold. The ACS median household income of $32,348 is below the $53,920 arithmetic income screen tied to the current asking index. These are survey-based area measures, not evidence about any tenant or specific unit.","title":"Renter concentration and burden"},{"body":"The bedroom amounts are constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI to the local HUD ladder. The resulting modelled estimates range from $1,094 for a studio to $1,785 for a four-bedroom unit, with $1,348 for two bedrooms. HUD's $1,352 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard nearly aligns numerically, but it remains an administrative standard and does not measure an advertised bedroom-specific rent.","title":"Bedroom amounts are modelled"},{"body":"ZIP ZORI is lower than the wider Tallahassee city, Leon County, and Tallahassee, FL metro context rents of $1,507.48, $1,507, and $1,513. That comparison is context only, not proof of a ZIP-level discount for any property. The ZCTA's 18.7% vacancy rate and 9,530 large-multifamily units describe aggregate stock; they cannot establish current availability, quality, included utilities, or an individual listing's price.","title":"Wider rents are higher context"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR differ in population, timing, utility treatment, and purpose. Treating any one as a substitute for a particular listing would create a source-mismatch risk.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from an aggregate asking-rent index and a HUD standard. It does not capture a property's exact bedroom definition, utilities, lease structure, quality, or advertised price.","The ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS values summarize a five-year survey. Geographic matching and survey timing can limit address-level comparisons.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregate categories for surveyed or counted housing. They cannot establish whether a specific unit is vacant, affordable to a given household, or available."],"qa":[{"a":"At the June 2026 endpoint, it is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The $1,348 result summarizes market asking-rent observations, not a signed lease, a median of occupied households, a quoted apartment, or a guarantee that a specific property is available.","q":"What does the current ZORI measure in 32304?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities in gross rent. ZORI is an asking-rent index. The measures also have different reference populations and timing, so the difference is descriptive rather than evidence that any given listing is overpriced or underpriced.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. The estimates provide a proportional comparison framework but do not replace a current bedroom-specific listing or lease quote.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured local rents?"},{"a":"No. Dividing the annualized ZORI by the 30% threshold produces an arithmetic required-income screen only; it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. For an actual property, confirm the address, asking rent, bedroom count, utilities, fees, lease terms, and availability before comparing any area-level measures.","q":"Does the 30% screen determine qualification?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":729.765548},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":712.380805},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":714.692138},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":723.555962},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":725.476161},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":731.302295},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":728.386408},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":734.540167},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":731.701123},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":734.835399},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":731.843186},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":735.689795},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":736.246346},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":735.905765},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":735.340014},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":734.284157},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":736.108443},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":740.860947},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":749.67053},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":752.187482},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":748.239008},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":755.687675},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":752.909228},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":763.702748},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":758.139129},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":769.876419},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":771.673034},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":779.292247},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":787.396559},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":788.040098},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":788.773501},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":780.744635},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":789.774482},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":790.989468},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":796.783414},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":792.333319},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":796.317462},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":800.585539},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":809.113333},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":817.27651},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":821.520623},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":821.178151},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":814.67342},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":815.499591},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":817.855113},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":823.92404},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":826.31912},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":835.374578},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":845.160838},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":848.240595},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":848.320074},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":845.324825},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":844.366648},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":849.541995},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":858.335859},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":866.414969},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":865.556105},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":862.463576},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":861.751591},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":857.02581},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":850.398082},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":844.426871},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":892.037533},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":899.539867},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":901.874234},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":900.776699},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":889.80795},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":892.579011},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":916.197017},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":941.14705},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":949.174605},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":940.190404},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":941.676465},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":941.187644},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":938.932065},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":944.132866},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":950.60592},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":964.006588},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":999.286465},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1020.43995},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1025.68958},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1005.284447},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1015.260944},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1035.81171},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1050.408089},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1059.02299},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1072.827796},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1089.948314},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1114.103185},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1127.155098},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1140.043884},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1142.268357},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1157.792713},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1160.217994},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1175.019659},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1169.498812},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1183.264801},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1185.893382},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1201.421126},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1210.973221},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1215.431901},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1220.292987},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1209.780142},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1219.440376},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1217.726116},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1250.808617},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1245.435584},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1259.038621},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1249.725818},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1261.065944},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1266.142915},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1270.810007},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1271.166923},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1280.154762},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1283.045431},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1288.957902},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1281.142971},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1288.562004},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1297.840576},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1312.310882},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1309.220574},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1308.287736},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1311.61218},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1319.542731},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1328.338258},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1329.399522},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1341.603343},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1343.47934},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1358.964748},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1347.508184},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1349.876915},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1341.926445},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1354.400434},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1356.820676},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1355.451418},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1351.190006},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1348.454157}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":137,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":0.9927536231884058,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1328.338258,"endRent":1348.454157,"change":0.015143657030768143,"cagr":0.015143657030768143},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1215.431901,"endRent":1348.454157,"change":0.1094444336129039,"cagr":0.03522603404594116},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":950.60592,"endRent":1348.454157,"change":0.4185206809989148,"cagr":0.07242550578163298}},"maxDrawdown":-0.025378252669593482,"annualizedVolatility":0.030214778246606434,"consecutiveReturnCount":135}}