Resale is the sharpest counterweight to the rent snapshot in ZIP 32821. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $256,892, down 17.13% year over year. There were 66 homes sold, marketing time was 70 days, and inventory stood at 178 homes with 8.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 95.57%, while 1.56% of sales closed above list. Those are resale-market signals, not rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 8.89%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-level measure. Falling resale prices, extended marketing time, and below-list outcomes create a clear tension with a rent level that has softened less sharply.
Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level ZORI is $1,904, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it is down 1.67% from a year earlier. The current level is nearly aligned with Orlando’s $1,903.80 city-context rent, below Orange County’s $1,955 county-context rent, and below the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro-context rent of $1,972. These are wider-geography comparisons only: the Orlando figure has city scope, the Orange County figure has county scope, and the metro figure has metropolitan scope. They should not be treated as ZIP asking-rent comps or as evidence that every property within the ZIP has the same rent position.
The backward-looking history shows a break from the longer path rather than a simple continuation. Exact same-month ZORI change was negative over the one-year period at 1.67% and over the three-year period at 2.55%, whereas the five-year annualized change remained positive at 3.76%. Monthly rent changes were variable enough to produce 4.90% annualized variability, so a single current index reading warrants less confidence than in a steadier ZIP. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 8.62%, documenting the largest observed decline from a prior high. Coverage was 100% across 101 observations. The transparent national discovery ranks were 2,796 for momentum, 2,817 for stability, and 2,887 for the balanced measure; these are descriptive history ranks, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The Census comparison requires a different evidence universe. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,913 with a $74 margin of error; it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder: $1,597 for a studio, $1,667 for one bedroom, $1,904 for two bedrooms, $2,387 for three bedrooms, and $2,825 for four bedrooms. HUD’s administrative bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR standards span $1,820 for a studio to $3,220 for four bedrooms; they are not asking rents, and the modelled estimates are never measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden measures add another constraint without establishing any applicant’s circumstances. The ACS ZCTA median household income was $69,348, while the arithmetic income needed to keep the current annualized ZORI at a 30% share of income is $76,160. That places the ZIP asking-rent-to-income screen at 32.95%. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS occupied-renter survey universe, 62.40% of renter households had gross-rent burdens of at least 30% of income. That broad burden result should not be used as proof of affordability, distress, payment performance, or utility costs for a particular unit.
Housing-stock evidence helps explain why broad vacancy needs careful reading. The ACS ZCTA contains 14,958 housing units and has a 26.46% vacancy rate. Reported vacant categories include 1,799 units for rent and 1,842 seasonal units, which are distinct labels and do not establish immediate availability, concession terms, or condition for any listed property. Renters account for 68.32% of occupied homes, and 6,851 units are in large multifamily structures. This stock mix is consistent with a renter-heavy area, but it does not convert a stock count into a current asking-rent forecast. Nor does a vacancy statistic prove whether a specific building, floor plan, or lease is competitively priced.
The combined screen is mixed. Asking rent is close to the ACS gross-rent benchmark, yet the ZIP’s asking-rent-to-income screen is above the metro-wide 30.13% context measure, and the surveyed burden share is elevated. Meanwhile, the recent rent decline and negative shorter historical periods agree with the weaker direct resale price change. The resale evidence is more emphatic, however: lengthy marketing, ample supply, and below-list outcomes contrast with only a modest one-year ZORI decline. That contrast matters because the rent index, household survey, HUD standard, and resale observation answer different questions. None independently resolves property economics, lease-up conditions, or a renter’s likely payment burden.
The practical limit is that this packet contains area-level indicators rather than a unit file. A property-level review should verify the address’s ZIP and ZCTA assignment, bedroom count, quoted asking rent, utility inclusions, availability date, lease term, concessions, and whether the unit type fits the ZORI blend. For a resale listing, check the actual list history, sale record, days marketed, condition disclosures, and any restrictions that affect use or costs. Compare those verified facts with the relevant source universe instead of treating HUD standards as offers, ACS survey medians as listings, or Redfin resale observations as rental comps. Can the specific unit’s documented terms support the broad signal without relying on assumptions this packet cannot test?
","findings":[{"body":"Direct ZIP resale evidence shows a substantial annual price decline alongside slower marketing, considerable supply, below-list sale outcomes, and a very small above-list share. Those measures remain strictly within the for-sale market. They challenge any reading of the modest asking-rent decline as a complete picture of current housing-market conditions.","title":"Resale conditions are weaker than the rent move alone suggests"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index and the ACS median gross-rent estimate are close in level, but they are not interchangeable. Zillow represents observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS describes occupied renter homes over a multi-year survey period and includes selected utilities. Apparent similarity should therefore be read as broad alignment, not a unit-level comp.","title":"Current asking rent sits near the occupied-renter survey benchmark"},{"body":"The one-year and three-year same-month rent changes are negative, while the five-year annualized result remains positive. Meaningful monthly variability and a recorded drawdown reduce the confidence warranted by any one current ZORI observation. Full historical coverage improves measurement completeness, but it does not turn backward-looking records into a prediction.","title":"Shorter rent history has turned negative after a positive longer run"},{"body":"The income screen exceeds the stated rent-share threshold, and the ACS burden share is substantial among surveyed renter households. At the same time, vacant-for-rent and seasonal stock are distinct categories within a renter-heavy housing base. These facts support careful lease and availability checks, but cannot establish affordability, condition, or marketability for a specific residence.","title":"Affordability and vacancy are area screens, not property verdicts"}],"risks":["A current asking-rent index blends rental types and reflects asking rents, so it may not match the bedroom mix, utilities, concessions, lease term, or availability conditions of a particular property.","ACS evidence is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, with sampling uncertainty and selected utilities included; it is not a contemporaneous record of advertised rents or individual household finances.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation directly describes for-sale activity only. Median price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot be used as rental transactions or as a measure of property operating results.","Vacancy categories and renter burden are aggregate area measures. They do not demonstrate that a particular vacant unit is rentable, competitively priced, affordable to an applicant, or subject to the same lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"They are built for different purposes and draw from different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard that varies by bedroom count, not a record of asking rents.","q":"Why can Zillow rent, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards differ even when their dollar levels look close?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates that scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. The ladder provides a relative bedroom structure, but neither the resulting estimates nor the HUD standards demonstrate a currently advertised or executed rent for a particular floor plan.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for studios through larger apartments?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by area median household income and separately calculates the income required for rent to equal the stated income share. It is useful as a standardized arithmetic comparison. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, a qualification policy, or evidence about any specific renter’s income or obligations.","q":"What does the rent-to-income screen actually tell a reader?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate direct ZIP observation of the for-sale market. Price movement, sales volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes can test whether rental and resale signals are moving together or diverging. They cannot substitute for rental comps, lease terms, operating costs, or property-specific condition review.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1414.556305},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1409.067709},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1407.460282},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1435.388324},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1444.554089},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1446.986818},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1429.737219},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1422.414011},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1427.686634},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1431.748983},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1445.350978},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1440.54469},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1446.083035},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1451.840917},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1461.738612},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1446.863868},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1444.202421},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1454.218654},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1473.011352},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1482.666533},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1476.670282},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1478.681104},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1475.91486},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1479.13039},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1475.109273},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1468.426342},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1463.156022},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1455.27364},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1424.655517},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1435.654188},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1431.450823},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1429.961543},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1403.130144},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1392.044998},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1394.492018},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1406.11028},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1438.19285},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1462.240202},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1492.772974},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1529.229727},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1583.144111},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1561.911928},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1622.96973},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1698.736493},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1835.339191},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1898.80083},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1939.696333},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1975.222945},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1996.348858},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2003.398876},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2013.059536},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2014.265893},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2024.422455},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2083.179302},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2079.896943},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2062.422166},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2018.474835},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2024.659515},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2029.909781},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2033.183584},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2037.700715},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2051.270799},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2056.800123},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2068.806081},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2056.995529},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2057.751521},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2030.7071},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2009.407887},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1988.330874},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1976.297106},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1983.483634},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1987.845421},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1976.180591},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1965.163146},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1950.308475},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1949.067766},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1957.283323},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1966.695008},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1976.328489},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1976.204094},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1956.49284},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1949.871497},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1932.096131},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1936.364262},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1947.197005},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1961.051324},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1959.632424},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1946.379116},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1936.006952},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1916.227787},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1915.95995},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1921.735278},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1944.037521},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1945.64886},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1947.115181},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1933.351388},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1921.830366},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1906.284669},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1905.098781},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1905.528011},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1903.655786}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":101,"firstPeriod":"2018-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":101,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1936.006952,"endRent":1903.655786,"change":-0.016710253011529397,"cagr":-0.016710253011529397},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2056.995529,"endRent":1903.655786,"change":-0.07454549163485313,"cagr":-0.025492860672956308},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1583.144111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