At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP market identifier 32825 recorded a ZORI of $1,875, down 0.67% from the same month a year earlier. That modest asking-rent retreat sits beside an opposing for-sale result: Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending in June put median sold price at $398,910, 3.08% above a year earlier. The contrast is not a causal claim, but it is the central decision tension: the rental index is cooling while ZIP resale prices rose. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; Redfin measures resales, not rental transactions. Annualized ZORI divided by that resale median is a 5.64% cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property-level economics or return.
Monthly rent history supplies the longer baseline. The exact same-month ZORI change was negative 0.67% over one year, positive 0.14% annualized over three years, and positive 4.39% annualized over five years. Thus, the latest decline breaks from the stronger five-year path and follows a nearly flat three-year track rather than confirming sustained growth. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.93% indicates that one current rent snapshot deserves moderate rather than excessive precision: the index has shifted, even without extreme instability. Separately, the 2.76% maximum drawdown marks the largest observed peak-to-trough decline in the series. Coverage was complete at 100% across 138 monthly observations. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks, where lower is higher, were 2,530 for momentum, 1,489 for stability, and 2,469 for balanced. These backward-looking measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity has its own direct ZIP record. Within Redfin’s rolling-three-month for-sale observation, 174 homes sold with a median marketing time of 25 days. The source reported 305 active listings, inventory of 114 homes, and 2 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.38%, while 10.66% of sales closed above list. Those signals show turnover and comparatively limited reported supply, but the average sale below list and the minority of above-list deals qualify any simple portrayal of aggressive pricing. In combination with the positive resale price change, this for-sale evidence challenges a rent-only reading of cooling. It still cannot establish that resale activity caused the ZORI move, that rentals performed differently by property type, or that a sale listing is a rental comparable.
Wider rent figures place the local index below surrounding context: the City of Orlando context rent is about $1,904, the Orange County context rent is $1,955, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro context rent is $1,972. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, not substitutes for ZIP observations. The five-digit label 32825 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,859. ACS gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. Their similar headline levels therefore do not make the series interchangeable, especially because their populations, timing, and utility treatment differ.
Bedroom figures require a separate interpretation. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom benchmark is $2,100. The ZIP bedroom ladder scales ZORI using that local HUD relationship, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,571 for a studio, $1,643 for one bedroom, $1,875 for two bedrooms, $2,357 for three bedrooms, and $2,777 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They give a transparent size-based framework anchored to the ZIP index, but they do not show actual advertised rents, lease concessions, condition differences, or the available mix of bedroom sizes in any particular building.
The income and burden evidence adds another tension. Applying the ZIP’s ZORI to a 30% screen produces a required annual income of $75,000. The ZCTA ACS median household income was $81,651, making the current asking-rent screen equal to 27.6% of that median income. This required-income calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Meanwhile, ACS estimated that 4,129 of 7,492 renter households, or 55.1%, paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. There is no contradiction between the two readings: one compares a ZIP asking-rent index with median household income, while the other summarizes the distribution of surveyed occupied renter households and their gross-rent burdens. Neither burden statistic proves the affordability or payment outcome of a particular unit or household.
Housing stock provides aggregate, not unit-level, constraints. The matched ZCTA had a 5.3% vacancy rate, and renter households represented 35.4% of occupied homes. Of vacant units, 406 were classified as vacant for rent. The structure count includes 17,172 single-family units and 1,412 units in large multifamily structures, showing that the stock mix extends beyond the rental index’s blended rental-type treatment. These categories cannot establish current availability, quoted rent, turnover, condition, or leasing terms for an individual property. Likewise, a vacancy rate does not demonstrate that a specific unit is empty, and the renter-burden share does not establish a particular tenant’s financial position.
The packet supports a disciplined comparison but leaves important limits. Zillow supplies a ZIP-level asking-rent index, ACS supplies a five-year ZCTA survey, HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder, and Redfin supplies direct ZIP resale evidence; none is a substitute for the others. City, county, and metro figures remain wider context, while the rent-to-price figure joins separate source universes for screening only. A property-specific review would still need the actual quoted rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease terms, availability date, structure type, condition, and any directly relevant sale or rental record. The resale metrics cannot verify rental terms, and the rent index cannot verify a property’s resale liquidity. Which unobserved property-level facts would reconcile the ZIP’s cooling rent signal with its firmer resale reading?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP asking rent declined over the latest same-month year, while the direct resale median rose in the rolling three-month Redfin observation. These are separate evidence universes, so the contrast identifies a screening tension rather than a demonstrated relationship between rental operations and sale outcomes. History further shows a cooling latest year after stronger five-year growth.","title":"Cooling asking rent contrasts with firmer resale pricing"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They offer a consistent internal size relationship, but they are not measured asking rents for units of those sizes. HUD’s standard is administrative and bedroom specific, so it should not be substituted for rental market observations.","title":"Bedroom amounts are a HUD-scaled model, not observed comps"},{"body":"The required-income screen divides the ZIP asking-rent index by the stated 30% threshold; it is not an affordability recommendation or applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden figure instead summarizes occupied renter households paying at least that income share for gross rent. The gap indicates that a median-income arithmetic comparison cannot describe every renter household.","title":"Median-income arithmetic differs from renter burden"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation shows sales volume, marketing time, listed supply, inventory, and sale-to-list signals in the for-sale market. Those measures confirm that resale activity was present while rental ZORI cooled, but they do not supply rental comparables or establish that any individual home can achieve the ZIP-level asking-rent index.","title":"Resale turnover is present but remains a for-sale signal"}],"risks":["The ZIP-ZCTA label match is useful for joining data, but the ZCTA remains a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, leaving geographic boundary differences in the comparison.","ACS results are five-year survey estimates for occupied homes and carry survey uncertainty, while Zillow and Redfin readings describe later market observations with different timing and populations.","The HUD-scaled bedroom amounts are not observed unit rents. Actual advertised terms can differ by unit condition, utilities, lease structure, availability, building type, and the bedroom mix represented by listings.","The annualized rent-to-price figure joins an asking-rent index and a resale median from separate sources. It cannot establish property-level cash flow, transaction economics, or outcomes for a specific home."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types within the ZIP market identifier. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What is the difference between ZORI and ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates derived by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard by bedroom size, not a record of advertised rents. The estimates should therefore not be read as measured unit-specific rents or rental comparables.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic comparison between the ZIP asking-rent index and a 30% income threshold. It helps describe the income level mathematically associated with that index, but it is not financial advice, an affordability finding for every household, or an applicant qualification rule. ACS burden results describe a different surveyed renter population.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen show?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month observation of ZIP for-sale and resale activity, including sold prices, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental transaction evidence. Its contrast with ZORI is useful for screening differing market directions, but it cannot prove causation, set rent, or describe a particular property’s rental performance.","q":"How should the Redfin resale reading be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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