ZIP 32826 presents a cooling-versus-affordability tension: its current Zillow ZORI is $1,952 per month, while that asking-rent snapshot equals 36.2% of the area’s annual median household income when annualized. A 30% rent-to-income screen converts the index into $78,080 of required annual income, above the reported $64,755 median household income. That is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it does not describe what any individual household pays. Still, the gap makes it important to distinguish the current asking-rent measure from survey rent, administrative standards, and wider-geography benchmarks before treating the ZIP snapshot as a complete affordability reading.
The cooling label is grounded in backward-looking Zillow ZIP history, not a forecast or investment recommendation. The exact same-month one-year change was −1.28%, breaking from the positive three-year change of 0.95% and the stronger five-year change of 4.70%. Thus, recent direction does not confirm the longer path; it interrupts it. Coverage is complete across 138 monthly observations. Monthly-return variability annualized to 2.71% suggests the present rent reading has a relatively steady historical backdrop, although it remains one index observation rather than a lease quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 4.59%, showing that measurable declines have occurred. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,505 for momentum, 1,063 for stability, and 2,214 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher; these are discovery placements, not predictions.
The five-digit label 32826 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. By contrast, the ACS median gross rent of $1,564, with a $140 margin of error, is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is 24.8% above that survey median. This difference is not a conflict between sources: it reflects distinct universes, time structures, inclusion rules, and the fact that ACS describes occupied renter households rather than current advertised asking rents.
Bedroom figures add useful structure only when their modelling is kept explicit. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,638 for a studio, $1,713 for one bedroom, $1,952 for two bedrooms, $2,451 for three bedrooms, and $2,895 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or rental comps. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the local two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,800. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is therefore 8.4% higher than that standard. Actual unit rents can differ because these sources do not establish a specific building’s condition, lease terms, utility treatment, or advertised concession structure.
ACS burden and housing-stock evidence provide a separate lens on the affordability screen. The survey records 2,674 of 5,155 renter households as burdened at its stated threshold, or 51.9%; that share describes surveyed occupied renters and cannot prove burden for a particular lease or household. Of 11,242 housing units, 1,186 were vacant, producing a 10.5% vacancy rate, while 645 vacant units were classified as for rent. Those counts are housing-status evidence, not proof that a given unit is available, competitively priced, or vacant today. The stock includes 5,890 single-family units and 1,699 units in large multifamily structures, indicating that the ZIP’s housing universe is not confined to one building type.
For wider context only, Orlando city’s asking-rent index was $1,904, Orange County’s was $1,955, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro’s was $1,972; each is a named broader geography rather than a ZIP result. The ZIP’s current index therefore sits above the city context, essentially alongside the county context, and below the metro context. The metro’s 30.1% rent-to-income measure is also contextual because it uses metro-level income and rent inputs rather than the ZIP’s distribution. These comparisons frame relative scale but do not replace direct ZIP evidence, and they should not be read as neighborhood, property, or tenant-level comparisons.
Redfin supplies direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, which describes the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Within that resale universe, the median sold price was $361,918, down 0.84% year over year; 48 homes sold and the median marketing time was 24 days. Redfin reported inventory of 40 homes and 2.5 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals also remained below full list pricing on average, at 97.93%, while 14.91% of sold homes went above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 6.47% cross-source screening ratio only, not a property yield, cap rate, net return, or expected return. The modest resale price decline confirms the recent rent-cooling direction, while the supply and sale-to-list observations challenge any simplistic conclusion that all market signals are uniformly weak.
The packet supports comparison, not a determination of a particular unit’s rent, resale value, vacancy, or household affordability. Relevant property-level checks include the live advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities included, lease duration, concessions, condition, and whether the unit is genuinely available; for resale review, the applicable checks include recent directly comparable sales, listing status, days listed, and sale-to-list evidence for that property type. The historical series is backward-looking, the ACS figures are survey estimates, HUD is administrative, and Redfin is resale-only. The practical unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s current terms align with the ZIP-level asking-rent snapshot and the separate evidence universes represented here.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index is below its same-month level one year earlier, while the three-year and five-year history remains positive. That makes the recent cooling direction a break from, rather than confirmation of, the longer path. Complete historical coverage and modest variability improve confidence in the series as a backward-looking ZIP indicator, but not as a forecast.","title":"Recent rent movement breaks from the longer record"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI captures a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks. The gap between Zillow and ACS should therefore not be interpreted as a direct pricing error. Bedroom values derived from the HUD ladder are modelled estimates rather than observed rents for available units.","title":"Asking rent, ACS rent, and HUD serve different purposes"},{"body":"Annualizing the current asking-rent index produces a rent-to-income screen above the stated threshold when compared with ZIP median household income. ACS also reports that more than half of surveyed renter households meet its burden threshold. Those readings identify a ZIP-level tension, but neither establishes affordability, payment history, or qualification for any individual household or unit.","title":"Affordability pressure appears in multiple ZIP-level screens"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a modest year-over-year decline in median sold price, alongside measurable transaction volume, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and average sales below list. That combination is for-sale evidence only. It supports the observed cooling theme in prices while preventing a simple inference that rental or resale conditions are uniformly weak.","title":"Resale evidence is softer but not one-dimensional"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and does not reveal a specific unit’s lease term, included utilities, concessions, condition, availability, or bedroom configuration, limiting its use as a direct rent quote.","ACS gross-rent and burden results are five-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes, with sampling uncertainty, and cannot establish current asking rents, unit vacancy, tenant payment capacity, or burden for a particular household.","The modelled bedroom ladder preserves relationships from an administrative HUD standard rather than measuring advertised bedroom rents, so actual studio through four-bedroom listings can depart materially from the displayed estimates.","Redfin resale observations cover for-sale transactions in a rolling three-month ZIP window, not rental transactions or property operations; the rent-price screening ratio cannot describe net economics, financing, expenses, or expected outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures observe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS result can include older leases and different utility arrangements, so the difference is not a direct contradiction.","q":"Why is the current asking-rent index higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates therefore organize the ZIP index by bedroom relationship but do not replace observed listing comps.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 32826 listings?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic comparison of annualized ZIP asking rent with reported median household income. The required-income figure at the stated threshold does not constitute advice, a tenant-screening rule, or an applicant qualification decision. Household incomes, actual rents, lease terms, utility costs, and roommate arrangements can all differ from the ZIP-level inputs.","q":"What does the rent-to-income screen establish?"},{"a":"They should be connected only as separate ZIP-level market observations. Redfin’s rolling-three-month results describe direct for-sale transactions, including sold price, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior; they are not rental comparables. Dividing annualized Zillow ZORI by median sold price creates a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, or expected return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be connected to the rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1049.496076},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1055.210085},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1059.192623},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1063.354337},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1064.506221},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1070.669834},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1067.887481},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1065.756062},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1073.568118},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1091.705215},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1108.127759},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1109.486398},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1118.474465},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1123.29137},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1130.018042},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1125.693827},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1132.767015},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1143.234628},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1149.07863},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1158.9844},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1157.91862},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1160.597321},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1158.178132},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1159.274787},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1159.29372},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1164.77357},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1168.138089},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1183.564805},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1196.115637},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1210.996273},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1227.798134},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1232.26929},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1236.216144},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1235.573323},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1242.502519},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1263.169254},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1274.633476},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1285.495641},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1289.526852},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1298.062969},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1294.650539},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1296.247128},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1298.026944},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1308.677637},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1320.917754},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1331.697066},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1340.758554},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1338.913146},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1348.678779},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1349.150814},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1358.609304},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1360.363642},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1370.274052},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1373.892731},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1377.393054},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1378.96722},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1381.187414},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1385.254936},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1387.469896},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1390.194518},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1388.191577},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1392.031664},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1399.540544},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1402.326409},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1386.830053},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1390.059639},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1399.757203},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1403.415531},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1414.208567},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1405.477119},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1422.388033},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1429.305987},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1446.403426},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1452.40622},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1455.186161},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1479.123349},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1519.019051},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1551.725029},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1593.441542},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1634.117705},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1661.095445},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1680.222995},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1688.97202},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1713.20524},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1748.691628},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1758.712106},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1784.533823},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1786.498199},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1808.465764},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1825.863979},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1830.297277},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1836.526556},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1819.637998},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1838.773181},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1872.85619},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1887.367541},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1874.604322},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1864.026804},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1872.402984},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1890.639064},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1883.400929},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1897.968164},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1895.776654},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1922.926014},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1941.673412},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1951.381307},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1915.171013},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1912.412161},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1913.318371},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1964.257122},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1973.042953},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1987.484308},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1984.723402},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1975.922923},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1986.960955},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1967.978066},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1967.185231},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1959.637748},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1965.107189},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1977.149743},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1985.354273},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2002.415533},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2014.063457},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2014.933561},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2000.287319},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1977.835435},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1976.168614},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1981.253087},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1981.175383},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1982.377275},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1991.846292},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1983.175574},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1980.148661},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1946.218766},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1932.395651},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1922.438016},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1935.493972},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1952.497535}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1977.835435,"endRent":1952.497535,"change":-0.012810924281978942,"cagr":-0.012810924281978942},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1897.968164,"endRent":1952.497535,"change":0.02873039286658985,"cagr":0.009486519002676053},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1551.725029,"endRent":1952.497535,"change":0.25827546666452594,"cagr":0.0470204055539043}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04590500986746926,"annualizedVolatility":0.027061138133670996,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}