ZIP 32828’s current rent and resale readings create a useful tension rather than a single verdict. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, which blends rental types, is $2,170 per month and is 0.4% higher than the same month a year earlier. That is a current asking-rent signal, not a lease record for a particular property. The label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundaries and operational ZIP usage should not be assumed to coincide.
The backward-looking rent path remains positive, although its pace has slowed materially from its longer run. Exact same-month annualized change was 0.4% over 1 year, 0.6% over 3 years, and 4.5% over 5 years. Thus, the latest direction still confirms a positive path, but it breaks from the substantially faster growth embedded in the longer period. Monthly index changes showed 2.4% annualized variability, suggesting the current reading has comparatively limited month-to-month noise. Separately, the largest observed decline from a prior peak was 2.0%, which supports stability but does not make the current snapshot permanent. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,255 for momentum, 577 for stability, and 1,651 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why rent figures do not match exactly. The matched ACS ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,966, with a $86 margin of error; it is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow’s asking index is 10.4% above that survey median, a difference consistent with their distinct populations and methods rather than proof of a rent change for any specific home. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR ladder is an administrative standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates ranging from $1,815 at the smallest bedroom category to $3,217 at the largest, while the underlying HUD standards range from $1,890 to $3,350. Those are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income screen is favorable in arithmetic terms but should not be confused with a tenant-level qualification decision. Applying the 30% screen to the current asking index produces required household income of $86,800, compared with ZCTA median household income of $101,767. The resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 25.6%. Yet the ACS burden measure reports that 49.2% of occupied renter households pay at least the stated share of income toward gross rent. That burden result includes the occupied-renter survey universe and does not show whether any particular available unit is affordable to a prospective household. It instead cautions that an area-level median-income comparison can coexist with material renter cost pressure.
The matched ZCTA’s housing base also gives the rent signal important context. It contains 25,944 housing units, with a 4.0% overall vacancy rate and a 36.3% renter share of occupied homes. The ACS count of units vacant and designated for rent is 514, but that is not a current count of listings, concessions, habitable condition, or units suitable for a particular household. A relatively limited renter share means the ZIP-wide Zillow index spans a rental market embedded within a larger owner-occupied stock. Vacancy data therefore helps describe the surveyed housing composition, while it cannot establish actual availability or bargaining conditions at an individual property.
For wider context only, Zillow’s asking-rent index is $1,904 in the City of Orlando, $1,955 in Orange County, and $1,972 in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro. The ZIP index is above each of those broader-area rent benchmarks, though none is a substitute for ZIP-level evidence. The metro’s rent-to-income screen is 30.1%, compared with the ZIP’s lower arithmetic screen, while supplied city and county burden shares are higher than the ZIP result. Those contextual comparisons indicate that 32828’s current index sits at a premium to each named broader scope, but they do not identify a cause, establish neighborhood conditions, or describe an individual building’s rent position.
Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation rather than rental transactions. Its median sold price is $466,894, down 2.7% year over year; 169 homes sold with a median 28 days on market. The resale record also shows 376 active listings, inventory of 182 homes, and 3.3 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.2%, 12.2% of sales closed above list, and the rapid off-market share was 36.1%. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing by the median sold price produces a 5.6% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale price decline challenges the otherwise positive rent-history reading: asking rents are edging upward while the direct for-sale price measure is lower, so the two markets should not be treated as confirming the same conclusion.
Interpretation should remain bounded by the available evidence. Zillow does not provide a unit-specific rent roll, ACS does not measure current asking rents, HUD does not measure market asking rent, and Redfin resale data does not establish rental economics. Concrete property-level checks include verifying current advertised rents for comparable bedroom configurations, included utilities, lease length, concessions, days available, and actual condition. On the resale side, review property-specific list history, closed-sale comparables, inspection findings, and transaction terms. Those checks are necessary because ZIP aggregates can frame a screening question, but cannot determine the economics, availability, or affordability of a particular home.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is slightly above its same-month prior-year level, while the longer five-year history retains a much stronger annualized growth rate. Low historical variability, a limited maximum drawdown, complete coverage, and the relatively strong stability discovery rank support confidence that the series has been steady. The slowdown means the current reading should not be treated as evidence that earlier rent growth is continuing at the same pace.","title":"Rent growth is positive but materially slower"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended typical observed asking-rent index, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The bedroom figures derived by scaling ZORI with HUD’s local ladder are modelled estimates only; they are useful for a relative bedroom screen but are not observed bedroom rents.","title":"Survey rent, asking rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"The ZIP-level asking-rent-to-income calculation is below the stated thirty-percent screen when compared with median household income. At the same time, nearly half of surveyed occupied renter households are rent burdened under the ACS gross-rent measure. This contrast is decision-relevant because median-income arithmetic and renter burden cover different populations and cannot determine whether a particular applicant or available unit meets an affordability threshold.","title":"Area-level income arithmetic contrasts with renter burden"},{"body":"The direct Redfin ZIP resale series shows a lower median sold price than a year earlier alongside active listings, measurable inventory, and a sale-to-list ratio below parity. That for-sale evidence is separate from rentals, but it challenges a simple reading of modestly positive asking-rent movement as uniformly supportive market evidence. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot represent property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rent signal"}],"risks":["Zillow’s ZIP index blends rental types and represents typical observed asking rent, so it can differ from the asking rent, executed lease rent, concessions, and utility treatment for a specific property.","ACS gross rent is based on occupied renter homes over a multi-year survey period and includes selected utilities, making it unsuitable as a direct current asking-rent or vacant-unit availability measure.","The HUD bedroom ladder is an administrative FMR or SAFMR benchmark. Scaling ZORI with it creates modelled bedroom estimates, not observations of current rents for comparable units.","Redfin’s ZIP figures describe rolling resale activity, not rental transactions. A falling sold-price measure alongside a rising asking-rent index is a cross-market tension, not evidence about a particular property’s return."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different universes and methods. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference can reflect timing, utility treatment, occupied versus asking units, and the index’s construction. It does not prove that any individual unit’s rent increased by that amount.","q":"Why is Zillow rent higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD standards are bedroom-specific administrative benchmarks rather than asking rents. The resulting ladder can help compare relative bedroom sizing within the model, but it does not substitute for unit-level listings, lease records, utility terms, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured market rents?"},{"a":"It does not directly describe the rental market. Redfin’s observation is a rolling-three-month ZIP resale record covering sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, listing activity, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is relevant as a separate for-sale market signal. Its divergence from the Zillow asking-rent index is a useful screening tension, but it cannot establish rental demand, rent collection, vacancy, or property economics.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence say about the rental market?"},{"a":"No. The screen is arithmetic: it compares the ZIP-level asking-rent index with household income at a stated rent-share threshold. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence regarding a specific household. Actual affordability can differ because of bedroom needs, utilities, deposits, lease terms, concessions, debt obligations, income variability, and the rent of the particular available unit.","q":"Does the thirty-percent income screen show that a household can afford a unit?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1251.020187},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1262.616935},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1271.918954},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1269.335803},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1267.324351},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1275.975917},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1280.347506},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1283.398871},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1288.869597},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1297.719255},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1308.032189},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1309.723557},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1311.792139},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1304.885557},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1315.082931},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1318.207673},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1332.496335},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1327.498565},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1332.569375},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1338.576781},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1347.545458},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1348.184804},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1338.931251},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1339.67824},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1346.024641},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1365.280801},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1357.829672},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1368.384948},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1369.702991},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1392.063715},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1395.583615},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1398.636608},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1392.197643},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1389.159278},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1399.982939},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1423.813968},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1440.371989},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1445.031739},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1460.186763},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1459.395886},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1463.605176},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1457.91571},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1470.849168},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1483.880179},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1499.684975},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1519.791061},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1533.136642},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1540.884014},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1524.158148},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1517.692937},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1521.309589},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1529.912309},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1536.842375},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1544.358946},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1544.55796},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1544.41913},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1545.808969},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1543.53723},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1541.245184},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1534.530836},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1548.590312},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1558.354142},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1583.900842},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1585.366618},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1581.592763},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1582.855231},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1579.14047},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1586.232721},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1590.474471},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1586.268494},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1587.006354},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1599.16344},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1615.053832},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1635.838345},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1649.833422},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1665.836315},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1702.012806},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1743.754546},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1786.480919},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1816.422324},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1833.450807},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1877.0085},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1904.017294},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1957.704284},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1979.757667},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2010.816228},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2020.48389},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2035.519603},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2044.64699},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2050.832891},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2075.392206},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2090.227167},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2104.98328},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2105.398826},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2113.685033},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2113.030917},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2110.340197},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2107.624224},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2114.317983},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2130.617568},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2132.86512},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2130.217539},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2108.584498},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2102.209181},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2110.376579},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2105.782667},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2124.677107},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2116.811711},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2128.629467},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2120.499874},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2129.242384},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2147.378722},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2167.059296},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2177.023482},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2182.532862},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2171.066159},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2158.131031},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2146.615401},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2139.669475},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2156.546336},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2163.53018},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2173.630823},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2176.068078},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2169.422965},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2161.9901},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2162.485714},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2172.188353},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2188.465638},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2198.121529},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2213.770349},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2212.377343},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2205.511769},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2197.010858},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2194.699292},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2188.081267},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2181.237227},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2176.497644},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2170.333424}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2162.485714,"endRent":2170.333424,"change":0.0036290228181363737,"cagr":0.0036290228181363737},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2130.217539,"endRent":2170.333424,"change":0.01883182551338458,"cagr":0.0062382781338714555},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1743.754546,"endRent":2170.333424,"change":0.24463241055258012,"cagr":0.04473999594468747}},"maxDrawdown":-0.019639285962787856,"annualizedVolatility":0.024392832091266258,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}