At 32839, the decisive tension is a cooling asking-rent index against a rising resale-price observation. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $1,605 per month, 1.52% below the same month a year earlier. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price is $271,189, up 10.73% year over year. These figures belong to distinct market universes; ZORI does not describe signed leases or a fixed-bedroom median, while the resale observation does not describe rental transactions. Neither number identifies the rent, sale result, or terms for a particular property.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. As wider Zillow context, the City of Orlando, FL context index is $1,903.80, Orange County, FL context index is $1,955, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro context index is $1,972. Each named city, county, and metro figure is a wider-geography comparison, not a ZIP substitute or a rent quote. The ZIP reading sits below all three, but geography and source scope prevent treating those gaps as evidence about a particular listing.
The matched Census ACS ZCTA five-year survey instead reports a $1,503 median gross rent. It surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is neither Zillow’s current asking-rent index nor a measure of units presently advertised. The current asking-rent index is 6.8% above that ACS median, a descriptive cross-universe comparison rather than an inconsistency. The same ACS ZCTA reports a $47,313 median household income, another survey estimate whose household universe and time window differ from the index. Neither number resolves whether a current unit has the utilities included in gross rent. These distinctions matter before connecting rent, income, or burden.
Bedroom figures require a second separation. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,345 for a studio, $1,405 for a one-bedroom, $1,605 for a two-bedroom, $2,013 for a three-bedroom, and $2,377 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,850. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; here it supplies the scaling ladder rather than a rental comparable. The result is a standardized distribution around the ZIP-wide index, not an inventory count of bedrooms. A unit’s quoted rent can depart from either source.
The 30% required-income screen turns the monthly index into $64,200 of annual income by arithmetic, using twelve months and the stated share. Against the ACS median household income, the ZIP asking-rent-to-income measure is 40.7%. This screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it only expresses the supplied rent and income inputs in a common calculation. Separately, the ACS survey counted 10,044 of 15,519 renter households, or 64.7%, at or above the burden threshold. That area-level burden estimate does not prove that any specific renter or unit has the same condition. It also makes no statement about expenses outside the measured screen.
Housing stock provides breadth, not unit-level availability. The ACS ZCTA estimates 24,708 housing units, of which 4,055 are vacant, for a 16.4% vacancy rate; renters occupy 75.1% of occupied units. Within the vacant stock, 2,385 units are classified as for rent. Those counts do not show current condition, location, concessions, lease terms, or whether a unit remains available. They also cannot convert area vacancy into proof that a specific apartment will be attainable. Vacancy categories provide no replacement for an active, unit-specific listing review. This stock-and-vacancy universe is the ACS survey, not Zillow’s listing index or Redfin’s resale feed.
History makes the recent direction clearer but remains backward-looking. Exact same-month ZORI change is −1.52% over 1 year, −1.37% annualized over 3 years, and +4.24% annualized over 5 years. Thus the recent cooling breaks from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. Coverage is 100%, with 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.13%, and the maximum drawdown is −5.22%; together, those measurements warrant limited confidence in a single current rent snapshot, even with full coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,744 for momentum, 1,814 for stability, and 2,698 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. They are descriptive discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation separately records 72 homes sold. Marketing time is 47 days, inventory is 146 homes, and months of supply is 6.2. The average sale-to-list ratio is 94.94%, while 8.58% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 7.10%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. Rising resale price alongside declining ZORI challenges a simple rent-led reading of the ZIP, while the burden screen adds a separate household-level tension. For a property-level comparison, check the live unit asking price, bedroom count, utilities and fees, lease terms, current availability, and the actual property’s sale and list records. Which of those unit facts, if any, matches these ZIP-level screens?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $1,605, down 1.52% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP median sold price is $271,189, up 10.73%. These are different universes: ZORI reflects typical observed asking rents and Redfin reports resales. The split does not establish a cause or a property-level outcome, but it is the report’s central cross-source tension.","title":"Rent direction and resale pricing diverge"},{"body":"HUD scaling produces the modelled studio-through-four-bedroom ZIP ladder from $1,345 to $2,377, with $1,605 at two bedrooms. These are not observed bedroom rents. They translate the ZIP-wide asking-rent index using the local HUD ladder. HUD’s $1,850 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not an asking-rent comparable or a quoted unit price.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model, not observed rent"},{"body":"At the 30% arithmetic screen, $1,605 per month maps to $64,200 annual income versus the ACS ZCTA’s $47,313 median household income. The result is not lease underwriting or applicant guidance. ACS also reports 64.7% of renter households at the burden threshold. That establishes an area-level affordability tension but cannot identify the financial position of a particular household or the terms of a specific unit.","title":"Affordability screen identifies area-level strain"},{"body":"ACS identifies broad stock and vacancy, while Redfin observes resale liquidity. The ZCTA has a 16.4% vacancy rate and 2,385 units classified for rent; Redfin reports 72 homes sold, 47 days of marketing time, and 6.2 months of supply in its direct ZIP resale window. Neither aggregation supplies a unit’s availability, property condition, or rent-to-sale economics.","title":"Stock and resale liquidity answer different questions"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI blends rental types and reflects typical observed asking rents, so it may not match an advertised unit’s bedroom count, concessions, utility treatment, condition, lease term, or final signed rent.","The ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, whereas the ZIP label is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; its median gross rent and burden statistics should not be treated as live listing evidence.","Vacant-for-rent classifications and the area burden rate are aggregate survey measures. They do not establish that a selected property is open, affordable to a particular household, correctly priced, or representative of all ZIP units.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation reports for-sale transactions only. Its price, supply, and sale-to-list statistics cannot be converted into rental comparable evidence, and the ZORI-to-price ratio lacks property-level expenses, financing, and operating information."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Their geography, timing, and housing universe differ. The displayed gap is therefore a cross-source comparison, not a contradiction, lease quote, or measure for one particular unit.","q":"Why is Zillow’s asking-rent index higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for a standardized bedroom view, but they are never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent survey or a direct rental comparable.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed listing rents?"},{"a":"The $64,200 figure is an arithmetic annual-income screen derived from the monthly ZORI at 30%. It is not advice, an affordability guarantee, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households at area level. Neither measure confirms a particular renter’s income, eligibility, expenses, or ability to lease a given property.","q":"What does the 30% income screen mean?"},{"a":"It adds a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation of for-sale resales: sold prices, pace, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It does not describe rental transactions. The annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, so it cannot establish property economics or resolve the tension between rising sale prices and cooling asks.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and 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