Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, ending in June, puts the immediate sale-market tension in view: median sold price was $502,386, down 3.4% from a year earlier. The series recorded 160 homes sold, a median 88 days on market, 7.0 months of supply, and a 98.0% average sale-to-list ratio. These are ZIP for-sale measures of resale pricing, marketing time, supply, and transaction activity—not rental transactions or lease comparables. Together, they describe resale liquidity and price negotiation at that endpoint, without a claim about rental-market activity. They do not measure tenant demand, a landlord's achieved rent, or economics for a particular property.
The five-digit 33032 label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In Zillow's June reading, typical observed asking rent was $2,643 per month, 4.4% below the prior-year reading; ZORI blends rental types and is an asking-rent index, rather than a closed-lease series. For wider-context comparison only, the City of Homestead context rent was $2,444, Miami-Dade County context rent was $2,886, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro context rent was $2,695. Thus ZIP rent stands above city context but below county and metro context; none replaces direct ZIP evidence.
Zillow's backward-looking ZIP history supplies 61 monthly observations at 100% coverage through the same June endpoint. Exact same-month annualized change is -4.4% across one year, +1.1% across three years, and +8.9% across five years. Accordingly, the latest drop breaks from the positive longer paths rather than confirming them. A 7.2% annualized variability in monthly returns means one current ZORI reading carries less confidence as a representative level than a steadier series would. Separately, the 5.6% maximum drawdown records the series' largest observed peak-to-trough reversal. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,632 for momentum, 2,899 for stability, and 2,868 for balanced history, with lower ranks higher. These diagnostics summarize past measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,658 median gross rent, with a reported $69 margin of error. It surveys occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities. This is neither an asking-rent quote nor a new-lease measure: Zillow's $2,643 ZORI is 1.59 times the ACS median, a cross-universe difference rather than evidence of a like-for-like rent increase. Median household income in this survey was $73,429. Annual income of $105,720 corresponds arithmetically to spending 30% of income on the monthly ZORI level, while the ZIP asking-rent-to-income relationship is 43.2%. That required-income screen is arithmetic only; it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Bedroom detail requires another source universe. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with that local HUD ladder gives modelled, not measured, monthly estimates of $2,026 for a studio, $2,154 for one bedroom, $2,643 for two bedrooms, $3,543 for three bedrooms, and $4,093 for four bedrooms. HUD's two-bedroom standard is $2,333, placing the all-types ZORI 13.3% above it. This proportional ladder does not show what any particular bedroom type has actually asked, leased for, or included.
ACS housing-stock data estimate 20,331 units and a 4.2% vacancy rate; renters occupy 42.2% of occupied homes. The structure mix has more single-family units than units in large multifamily structures, an inventory description rather than a rent observation. Of surveyed renter households, 60.4% reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. The burden statistic applies to households in the ACS survey, and the vacancy rate applies to units in that survey framework. Neither establishes that a particular listed unit is available, affordable, vacant, or burdened. Together, they add distributional background to the income screen without reconciling ACS utility-inclusive gross rent with Zillow's all-types asking index.
Resale evidence both confirms and limits the rent reading. Redfin inventory stood at 371 homes and had declined from a year earlier, but all listed sale-side inputs, including the sale-to-list signal, remain direct for-sale evidence only. The year-over-year fall in resale price points in the same direction as the current ZORI decline; it challenges treating the five-year asking-rent gain as an uninterrupted present trend, while it does not alter the income arithmetic. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 6.3% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, and it does not include property-level costs, financing, or lease results.
Scope and timing impose practical limits. Zillow supplies a blended ZIP asking-rent index, ACS supplies a five-year survey statistic with sampling uncertainty, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin supplies rolling resale observations. None substitutes for property-specific evidence. A property-level interpretation would require the actual bedroom configuration, advertised rent, utilities included, lease term, availability, condition, and listing or sale history to be checked against the relevant source universe. It would also require separating current asking terms from a historical index and a household survey median. The unresolved question is whether a specific unit's terms actually align with the modelled bedroom allocation and the broad affordability screen, rather than merely sharing the ZIP label.
","findings":[{"body":"June's ZIP ZORI is $2,643, down 4.4% from one year earlier. The three-year and five-year exact same-month paths remain positive, so the latest move is a break from, not confirmation of, the longer record. Because the observed monthly series is classified high variability, current index direction should be read as a historical measurement with limited snapshot certainty, not as a forecast.","title":"Current rent direction breaks from the longer history"},{"body":"ZORI is a typical asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific. The listed studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with the HUD ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. Keeping those universes distinct prevents an apparent gap from being misread as a direct change in lease prices.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"The $105,720 30% required-income screen is arithmetic based on ZIP ZORI, not a qualification standard. ACS shows a surveyed burden share, a renter share below one-half, and a 4.2% survey vacancy rate. These figures characterize households and housing units at ZCTA scope; they cannot establish affordability, vacancy, or payment stress for any individual unit.","title":"Affordability and burden are separate screens"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP resale data show a lower year-over-year median sold price, 88-day marketing time, seven months of supply, and an average sale price below list. This is a direct rolling-three-month for-sale observation, not rental comps. Its agreement with the one-year rent decline is a cross-market directional tension, while annualized ZORI divided by sale price remains only a screening ratio.","title":"Resale softening aligns directionally with the current rent decline"}],"risks":["Zillow's ZIP identifier and the Census ZCTA are matched analytical geographies, but neither is a USPS delivery boundary. A blended asking-rent index cannot establish the contract rent for one address.","High monthly-return variability and the recorded maximum drawdown mean that the current ZORI observation may be less representative than a stable series. Past history does not forecast future lease pricing or investment outcomes.","ACS rent, income, vacancy, and burden estimates are ZCTA five-year survey measures with sampling uncertainty and definitions different from Zillow. They cannot identify present availability, utilities, household payments, or affordability for a particular dwelling.","Redfin reports ZIP for-sale transactions and listings, while the rent-price screening ratio omits property-specific costs, financing, lease terms, and achieved rents; it is not a return metric."],"qa":[{"a":"They answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. The figures therefore are not a like-for-like time series or a measure of new leases.","q":"Why do the Zillow and ACS rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates generated by scaling the all-types ZORI using the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The calculation organizes a proportional ladder but cannot establish what a particular unit asked or leased for.","q":"Are the listed bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, including sold prices, time on market, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Its lower year-over-year price aligns directionally with the current ZORI decline, but this does not demonstrate causation or change the longer historical ZORI record. Resale evidence is not rental transaction evidence.","q":"What does the resale evidence add to the rent history?"},{"a":"Current advertised rent, actual bedroom configuration, utility treatment, lease length, availability, condition, and listing or sale history are not supplied for any address. Those checks are necessary to determine whether a property resembles the modelled allocation or only shares the ZIP label; ACS burden and vacancy estimates cannot fill that gap.","q":"Which property-level facts remain unobserved?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1727.538024},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1779.313454},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1853.455898},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1920.164648},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1955.27859},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1915.264132},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2071.613976},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2118.624697},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2278.52507},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2287.831632},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2385.89444},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2414.229292},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2445.20649},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2480.530575},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2511.438265},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2492.352957},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2536.063425},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2587.671054},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2559.391353},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2544.720769},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2467.135314},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2527.004008},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2517.66911},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2550.612529},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2556.445249},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2555.663408},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2564.292869},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2517.659166},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2512.902882},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2537.918652},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2586.739186},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2595.47697},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2612.23063},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2595.145239},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2639.944755},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2625.605336},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2621.036838},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2639.769582},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2698.433485},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2799.718413},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2774.52194},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2733.53373},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2668.024103},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2696.377278},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2714.24543},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2730.499954},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2689.978014},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2744.430087},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2764.609412},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2763.122076},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2722.917907},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2687.223262},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2710.978221},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2730.269111},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2762.406358},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2742.466642},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2732.923301},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2714.627595},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2716.933955},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2667.412451},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2642.649573}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":61,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2764.609412,"endRent":2642.649573,"change":-0.04411467257205437,"cagr":-0.04411467257205437},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2556.445249,"endRent":2642.649573,"change":0.03372038733617333,"cagr":0.011116103491238816},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1727.538024,"endRent":2642.649573,"change":0.5297200618954365,"cagr":0.08873552117142824}},"maxDrawdown":-0.056101656248956466,"annualizedVolatility":0.07220509856182308,"consecutiveReturnCount":60}}