The five-digit label 33126 identifies Zillow’s ZIP rental market and matches a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI stands at $2,417, down 1.6% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a measure of signed leases or a unit-specific quote. The matched Census ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,771. That ACS measure surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so the difference reflects distinct universes and timing, not a confirmed difference for any available home.
The rent direction now conflicts with its longer record. Exact same-month ZORI changes were -1.6% over 1 year and -0.8% annualized over 3 years, against +6.3% annualized over 5 years. Thus, the recent decline extends the medium-term softness and breaks from—not confirms—the longer expansion. The historical series has full 100% coverage. Monthly change dispersion translates to 3.8% annualized volatility, so a lone current index reading deserves less confidence as a settled level in this high-variability history category. Separately, the deepest observed peak-to-trough setback was 4.4%, its backward-looking maximum drawdown. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,719 for momentum, 2,467 for stability, and 2,834 balanced, among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These measurements are descriptive, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Income and burden create a harder screen than the current small decline. Annualizing the ZIP ZORI produces a $96,680 income figure at the 30% screen, while matched ZCTA median household income is $58,210; the annualized asking-rent-to-income comparison is 49.8%. The 30% calculation is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the separate ACS survey universe, 7,889 renter households were at or above the burden threshold, equal to 66.4% of renter households. This five-year survey result applies to occupied homes, not necessarily new listings, and burden does not prove that a particular unit, household, or lease is unaffordable.
Bedroom differentiation must not be read as observed bedroom rents. The FY 2026 local HUD ladder includes a $2,333 two-bedroom standard and is used solely to scale ZIP ZORI. That method generates modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,852 for a studio, $1,969 for one bedroom, $2,417 for two, $3,240 for three, and $3,743 for four. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; as a result, the ladder conveys a relative sizing pattern rather than unit condition, building type, availability, or a direct rental comp.
Stock data show a renter-oriented but mixed ZCTA footprint: 20,149 housing units, a 63.5% renter share, and a 7.1% overall vacancy rate. The inventory includes 7,896 single-family units and 9,088 units in large multifamily structures, an important distinction because the blended ZORI cannot specify which structure types set its typical level. Vacant homes are categorized for rent, sale, seasonal use, and other reasons; the aggregate vacancy measure therefore is not proof that a particular rental is available or that it will lease at the index. Likewise, ACS counts and estimates describe the matched ZCTA population and housing stock rather than the separate USPS delivery system.
Broader rent context puts the ZIP’s lower asking index in scale but does not replace ZIP evidence: the Miami city context is about $3,004, the Miami-Dade County context is $2,886, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro context is $2,695. Each figure belongs to its named city, county, or metro scope in that sentence, whereas the decision record above is the ZIP/ZCTA match. City, county, and metro values can differ in composition and coverage from the ZIP and from each other. They are useful context only, not local rental comps, and cannot establish the terms, availability, or price of a specific unit.
Resale evidence presents a second, direct ZIP liquidity signal. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reported a $286,435 median sold price, down 10.5% year over year, with 60 homes sold and a 74-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 121 homes and months of supply at 6.2. The average sale-to-list result was 95.1%, while 12.1% of homes sold above list. All are for-sale/resale measures, not rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 10.1% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Falling resale pricing and below-list realization challenge using the positive five-year rent path as current support.
The evidence leaves a practical comparability limit: Zillow speaks to blended asks; ACS speaks to surveyed occupied renters with selected utilities; HUD supplies administrative standards; and Redfin records resales. ACS estimates also carry survey uncertainty. No source in this packet establishes a unit’s condition, exact location within the ZIP, included charges, concessions, lease length, or actual occupancy. Concrete property-level checks are the advertised bedroom count, current asking rent, utility treatment, lease terms, active status, condition, and—when assessing a sale—the sale date, list history, and property type relative to the resale observation. The historical and resale readings are snapshots rather than guarantees. Does the specific record document enough of those items to make any ZIP-level comparison meaningful?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index has fallen over the past one and three years even though the five-year same-month record remains positive. Complete historical coverage strengthens the measurement record, yet the high-variability classification and documented drawdown mean a current index should be treated as a moving benchmark. The discovery ranks organize historical signals; they do not predict rent direction or an investment outcome.","title":"Recent rent softness interrupts the longer history"},{"body":"Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and applying the stated 30% convention produces an income screen above the ZCTA median household income. Separately, ACS reports a large share of renter households meeting the burden threshold. Neither result decides whether a person qualifies or whether a particular apartment is affordable, because household income, utilities, concessions, and lease terms vary beyond these aggregate source measures.","title":"Affordability is a source-aware screen"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom figures are produced by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They give a consistent relative range for an initial comparison, but are not measured rents, transaction averages, or direct rental comps. HUD’s standards are administrative and bedroom specific; the Zillow index remains a blended asking-rent measure. Unit size alone cannot resolve quality, utility, or availability differences.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows lower sold pricing, reported marketing time, supply, and average sales below list. Those for-sale signals are consistent with the recent soft ZORI direction, while differing from the older positive rent history. The rent-price calculation is only an annualized asking-index-to-sale-price screen; it omits financing, expenses, unit matching, and rental transaction evidence.","title":"Resale conditions pose a cross-market tension"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resales have different populations, timing, and purposes. Treating their dollar values as interchangeable could produce a misleading unit-level conclusion.","The high-variability historical category, recent negative same-month changes, and past peak-to-trough decline mean the current ZIP index may not represent a stable rent level for every property or lease date.","The 30% income calculation and ACS burden share are aggregate screens, not qualification criteria. They cannot show a particular household’s income, assistance, expenses, or ability to rent a particular unit.","Redfin figures reflect a rolling three-month for-sale sample, not rental transactions. Price, supply, and sale-to-list signals may challenge a rent narrative without revealing property-level operating costs or lease demand."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types at the current Zillow endpoint. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. The labels match geographically for analysis, but their rental populations, timing, and definitions do not, so the difference is not a unit-level premium.","q":"Why is the ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates: ZORI is scaled by the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD provides an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent observations. These figures support relative sizing only and cannot substitute for verified bedroom-specific listings, conditions, included utilities, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP ZORI and divides by the stated 30% share to calculate a required-income benchmark, then compares that arithmetic to area median household income. It is not financial advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a finding about any household. ACS burden data are separate survey evidence for occupied renter households.","q":"What does the affordability screen mean?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation should be read only as direct for-sale market evidence: sold price, price movement, sales count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Dividing annualized ZORI by sold price creates a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or projected outcome. Verify property type and sale record before any comparison.","q":"How should the resale figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1437.951756},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1443.512873},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1429.515788},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1416.687972},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1422.120242},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1437.721235},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1456.418998},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1466.314047},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1468.728185},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1472.200842},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1471.750158},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1487.308735},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1482.407869},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1505.090352},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1527.728048},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1549.449426},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1542.334167},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1501.015459},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1500.124095},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1520.991261},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1547.285387},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1546.409153},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1538.086193},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1512.27231},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1530.940525},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1525.623958},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1545.296133},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1539.355427},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1550.211244},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1581.868336},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1588.295294},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1593.111146},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1586.833171},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1582.041425},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1575.221959},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1573.431842},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1577.682126},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1586.962468},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1583.013321},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1580.125494},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1584.987588},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1596.273854},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1596.208489},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1608.673159},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1605.865569},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1623.00026},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1609.485331},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1620.490167},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1606.317315},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1629.989054},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1628.102792},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1638.760192},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1641.093713},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1635.275569},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1643.142959},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1638.465786},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1650.504356},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1652.493947},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1680.821093},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1691.616199},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1710.918343},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1702.595047},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1671.540619},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1661.879643},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1674.997199},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1692.908865},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1672.682311},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1661.828709},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1641.949722},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1669.087297},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1669.644614},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1674.801268},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1660.935945},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1694.380351},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1727.592687},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1750.645975},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1770.952247},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1780.604588},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1853.912506},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1906.919996},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1964.447839},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1955.172187},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1970.181963},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2034.354556},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2109.692004},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2175.507209},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2192.435671},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2240.516001},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2256.821866},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2295.585648},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2274.711098},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2310.510254},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2338.842801},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2409.785625},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2422.582589},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2409.93383},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2428.609176},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2427.194327},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2449.91218},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2435.576501},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2464.305104},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2477.269383},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2496.587612},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2498.715272},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2500.804533},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2492.191424},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2503.293469},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2501.933737},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2493.695074},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2475.140122},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2488.494229},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2499.116434},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2508.112959},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2506.019727},{"period":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