In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 33138 was $2,372 per month, down 0.23% from the same month a year earlier. That is the packet’s central tension: the current asking-rent index has edged down even though its longer history remains positive and ZIP resale prices have increased. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-specific quote or a utility-inclusive household-cost measure. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The figure therefore frames an area-level asking-rent snapshot, not an offer for any particular residence.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,611, making the current Zillow asking index 47.2% higher; ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. It answers a different question from ZORI’s observed asks. For wider context only, Miami city context rent was $3,004, Miami-Dade County context rent was $2,886, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro context rent was $2,695. These city, county, and metro values are not substitutes for the ZIP. The source gap should be read as a difference in population, timing, and utility scope, rather than proof that a particular listing commands that spread.
History makes the soft current reading more nuanced, but it does not create an outlook. Through June 2026, exact same-month Zillow ZIP ZORI changes were down 0.23% over one year, up 0.70% annualized over three years, and up 7.41% annualized over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path. Its 3.69% annualized monthly-return variability places the series in the supplied high-variability category, reducing the confidence a reader should place in one current rent snapshot relative to a steadier series. A 2.57% maximum drawdown records the largest observed peak-to-trough decline, not a prediction. Coverage was complete across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,385 for momentum, 2,410 for stability, and 2,702 for the balanced score, where lower ranks are stronger; these are backward-looking comparison tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
For bedroom orientation, the ZIP ZORI was scaled through the local HUD ladder into modelled monthly estimates of $1,818 for a studio, $1,933 for a one-bedroom, $2,372 for a two-bedroom, $3,179 for a three-bedroom, and $3,673 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they should not be mistaken for a set of current asking-rent comps. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder used for scaling is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its role here is to provide a local relative-bedroom structure, while ZORI supplies the ZIP-level rent anchor.
The 30% required-income screen produces $94,880 of annual household income for the current monthly ZORI. This is arithmetic based on the index, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income was $75,051, so the mechanical asking-rent-to-income ratio is 37.9%. Separately, 57.7% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more in ACS. That burden result concerns occupied renter households over the survey period and cannot establish the finances, lease terms, utilities, or affordability of a particular applicant or unit. Together, the income screen and burden share signal an area-level affordability tension, while the ZORI-versus-ACS difference cautions against treating either as a direct household budget.
Housing stock supplies context without demonstrating availability. The matched ZCTA contained 14,384 housing units, with a 12.6% overall vacancy rate, while renter-occupied households represented 52.2% of occupied units. The stock included 6,682 single-family units and 4,192 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating a mix of structural forms within the statistical area. Vacancy categories in the data include units designated for rent, sale, and seasonal use, so the overall rate is not a count of immediately rentable homes. It also cannot prove that any listed unit is vacant, competitively priced, habitable, or suitable for a given household.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a separate for-sale universe. Median sold price was $1,089,754, up 28.21% year over year, while 112 homes sold and median marketing time was 117 days. Inventory stood at 256 homes and months of supply at 6.9. The average sale-to-list ratio was 93.54%; 8.26% of sales closed above list, and 10.77% went off market within two weeks. This resale combination challenges any simple reading of the rent history: sale prices rose sharply while the asking-rent index was slightly lower year over year, and the marketing and sale-to-list signals do not describe a uniformly fast resale process. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price was 2.61%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The evidence is strongest as a set of dated, area-level screens rather than a property decision. Check the advertised bedroom count, asking rent, concessions, lease duration, deposit requirements, and utility treatment against the modelled ladder and the ZORI scope. For any sale comparison, verify property type, condition, lot or unit characteristics, listing history, sale date, and whether the relevant record belongs in the direct ZIP resale series. Confirm that a property’s delivery ZIP and census geography actually align, because the ZCTA match is statistical rather than postal. Finally, distinguish an administrative HUD standard, an ACS survey median, a Zillow asking-rent index, and Redfin resale evidence before drawing conclusions from their differences.
","findings":[{"body":"The June Zillow ZORI reading declined slightly from the same month a year earlier, even though the three-year and five-year same-month annualized history remained positive. The supplied history is categorized as high variability, so the current index should be treated as a dated reading with meaningful movement around its trend rather than as a stable fixed rent benchmark.","title":"Current asking rent softened against a stronger long record"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures were produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They provide a consistent relative-bedroom orientation, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured rents for available units. HUD standards are administrative bedroom benchmarks, not evidence of current asking rents or executed lease terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are a scaling model, not rent observations"},{"body":"The mechanical income required to place the current ZORI at 30% of income exceeds the matched ZCTA median household income, while a majority of ACS renter households were reported as burdened at 30% or more. Those results identify a broad screen, not the affordability of any individual household, because ACS gross rent and ZORI cover different populations and cost definitions.","title":"Area-level affordability measures point to a mismatch"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation showed a large year-over-year increase in median sold price while ZORI was marginally lower year over year. At the same time, marketing time, months of supply, and below-list average sale outcomes describe resale liquidity separately from rental activity. The rent-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale pricing and rent direction are not moving in lockstep"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types and does not verify an available unit’s bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease term, deposit, or final contracted rent.","ACS results come from occupied renter homes in a five-year ZCTA survey and include selected utilities, so they should not be treated as same-month asking-rent comps or direct household affordability determinations.","The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is modelled from an administrative standard. It can organize relative bedroom expectations, but it cannot replace current unit-level rental listings or executed lease evidence.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data concern for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. Differences in property mix, timing, condition, and market universe limit interpretation of the rent-price screening ratio."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, unit mix, occupied-versus-advertised status, and utility treatment can all create a substantial difference.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent index much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are intended to show a relative studio-to-four-bedroom structure. They are not measured rents, not unit-specific rental comps, and not evidence that a currently available residence will lease at those amounts.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents for 33138?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen: annualized current ZORI divided by 30% produces an income threshold for that ratio. It is not lending, legal, leasing, or applicant-qualification advice. Actual household affordability can differ because rent terms, utilities, household size, income stability, subsidies, debt, and other costs are not represented in the calculation.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. The Redfin block is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, while ZORI measures asking rent in a separate rental universe. A rise in median sold price does not establish a rental outcome. Here, the resale price increase exists alongside a slightly lower year-over-year asking-rent index, which is a reason to keep the two evidence streams separate.","q":"Does the Redfin resale information show that rentals should become more expensive?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1176.322277},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1197.848059},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1215.348396},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1236.321923},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1228.292014},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1233.666646},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1239.089062},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1249.93518},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1252.097227},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1256.717023},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1271.691216},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1267.188773},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1280.713689},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1274.081117},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1283.081814},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1285.427995},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1312.895208},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1312.426463},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1311.370559},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1289.924763},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1302.622559},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1309.491267},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1326.669523},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1326.717443},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1336.770537},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1341.956124},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1322.668742},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1312.900577},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1307.452857},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1328.149576},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1330.82959},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1339.466505},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1333.851868},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1351.01371},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1336.520677},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1361.490038},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1352.015481},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1363.322237},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1358.21275},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1371.589398},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1377.073723},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1375.635518},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1373.572542},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1391.998825},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1401.097769},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1422.656041},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1432.38869},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1426.83816},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1420.222077},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1408.257641},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1429.388201},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1433.162139},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1437.063755},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1438.961199},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1451.044647},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1448.498583},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1454.110677},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1440.202721},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1449.650405},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1455.98292},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1478.595536},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1497.488742},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1494.852993},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1505.759568},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1497.179622},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1509.609524},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1514.061902},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1525.98256},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1521.366834},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1533.554116},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1526.341376},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1536.426726},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1537.100742},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1553.542387},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1582.446589},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1609.755396},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1639.123435},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1659.279401},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1695.016399},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1738.31115},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1814.20009},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1858.458779},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1938.217835},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2006.885339},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2058.662243},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2063.759934},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2061.631866},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2121.433044},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2172.175825},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2202.736341},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2229.118158},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2247.436631},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2276.444091},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2267.220248},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2260.555974},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2270.690012},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2283.586098},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2324.207192},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2327.972257},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2308.241153},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2291.019339},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2323.000612},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2339.382284},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2363.085079},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2321.735355},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2339.530715},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2322.088697},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2304.120665},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2313.924554},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2315.517537},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2364.688079},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2363.298489},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2387.904537},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2359.18401},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2349.60059},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2347.304798},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2379.071704},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2386.694788},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2398.233912},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2403.97376},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2393.620343},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2395.90536},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2370.470132},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2354.063983},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2357.861418},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2378.054413},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2381.230025},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2376.244509},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2371.537121},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2365.083717},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2369.527654},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2375.023385},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2378.463918},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2371.975787},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2370.505992},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2388.757113},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2379.178857},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2372.474359}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2378.054413,"endRent":2372.474359,"change":-0.0023464786884167532,"cagr":-0.0023464786884167532},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2323.000612,"endRent":2372.474359,"change":0.021297345659072153,"cagr":0.007049305741876344},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1659.279401,"endRent":2372.474359,"change":0.4298221008289367,"cagr":0.074128898707436}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02571117369855236,"annualizedVolatility":0.03688876915931518,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}