The central tension in 33141 is a still-rising asking-rent reading alongside a softer resale reading. Zillow ZORI for June 2026 was $2,632 per month, up 3.1% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for a particular available unit. Separately, Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30 placed the median sold price at $479,892, down 6.4% year over year. Annualized ZORI divided by that sold-price median is a 6.58% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The contrast matters because current asking-rent movement is positive while the ZIP’s recent for-sale pricing signal is negative.
The backward-looking Zillow rent history is mixed but remains positive across each stated horizon. Exact same-month change was 3.1% over one year, 1.4% annualized over three years, and 6.9% annualized over five years. Thus, the recent direction confirms the longer upward path in sign, but it breaks from the much faster five-year pace. Annualized variability of monthly rent changes was 3.3%, which means one current ZORI snapshot deserves more confidence as a broad benchmark than as a precise near-term path. The maximum drawdown was 2.7%, indicating that the observed index’s largest peak-to-trough setback was limited relative to its longer gain. Coverage is complete across the supplied history. The transparent national discovery ranks place momentum ahead of balanced and stability measures; they are descriptive sorting tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why rent figures should not be substituted for one another. The ACS matched ZCTA five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,831 among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks observed asking rents. The five-digit label 33141 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At wider scopes, Miami Beach city context is $2,978, Miami-Dade County context is $2,886, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro context is $2,695. Those city, county, and metro figures provide named wider-market context only, not substitutes for the ZIP-level asking-rent index or the ZCTA survey result.
The bedroom view is a modelled ladder, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,017 for a studio, $2,145 for one bedroom, $2,632 for two bedrooms, $3,528 for three bedrooms, and $4,076 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom base aligns with the ZIP ZORI by construction, while the other figures translate its level through local bedroom relationships. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the underlying local two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,333. Consequently, the modelled ladder is useful for consistent scenario comparison, but it does not establish the observed market rent, lease terms, utility treatment, or availability of any bedroom type.
The income screen creates a second tension. Applying the standard 30% arithmetic to annualized ZORI yields required household income of $105,280, compared with ZCTA median household income of $68,738; annualized ZORI is therefore 45.9% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-home survey, 6,232 of 10,548 renter households, or 59.1%, were burdened by gross rent at or above 30% of household income. Because ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and refers to occupied renter homes, the burden result cannot prove that any currently listed unit is unaffordable or that a particular household will face the same burden. It does, however, make the gap between the current asking-rent benchmark and area-wide income context decision-relevant.
The ZCTA housing-stock data point to a renter-oriented, multifamily-heavy base while also requiring caution around vacancy interpretation. The survey shows 5,021 vacant units, a 22.9% vacancy rate; 2,635 of those vacant units were seasonal and 424 were classified as for rent. Renters account for 62.5% of occupied homes, and structures with many units account for 12,790 homes in the stock. Seasonal vacancy is a distinct census classification, not evidence that those homes are presently competing in the long-term rental market. Likewise, the for-rent vacancy count is not a current listing count and cannot establish the available supply, condition, price, or leasing prospects for a specific property. These data describe the ZCTA’s surveyed stock and occupancy pattern, not a unit-level availability claim.
The resale evidence is direct ZIP for-sale evidence and should remain in that universe. In Redfin’s rolling three-month observation, 145 homes sold and median marketing time was 138 days. Inventory stood at 517 homes with 10.8 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 93.6%, while 5.7% of sales closed above list price. These liquidity and pricing signals describe resale transactions rather than rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-level economics. They reinforce the challenge posed by the 6.4% sold-price decline and the long marketing time: resale conditions appear less firm than the positive current ZORI change. That does not negate the rent history, but it does weaken any simple reading that a rising asking-rent index and a resale-market screen are delivering the same message.
Several limits should govern use of this report. ZORI is a ZIP-wide blended asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin measures ZIP resale activity over a rolling period. None identifies a specific property’s effective rent or transaction economics. A property-level review would need the unit’s dated asking price, bedroom count, square footage, condition, lease length, utility inclusions, concessions, actual availability, and comparable listings. For a sale, relevant checks would include listing history, contract timing, seller concessions, and association charges where applicable. The decision question is whether those unit-specific terms support or contradict the broad rent, affordability, stock, and resale signals documented here.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,632 and rose 3.1% year over year, while Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median was $479,892 and fell 6.4%. The resulting 6.58% annualized-rent-to-sold-price screen is only a cross-source comparison. Positive asking-rent movement therefore exists alongside softer recent resale pricing and liquidity evidence.","title":"Rent and resale signals diverge"},{"body":"Same-month rent changes were positive over one, three, and five years, but the 1.4% annualized three-year pace and 3.1% one-year pace trail the 6.9% five-year pace. Monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown show a historically uneven index path, so the current reading should be treated as a benchmark rather than a prediction.","title":"The rent history is positive but slower than its long-run pace"},{"body":"A 30% arithmetic screen on current ZORI implies $105,280 of household income, versus ZCTA median household income of $68,738. ACS also reports that 59.1% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. These measures are not applicant outcomes, but they highlight tension between current asking-rent levels and surveyed household-income conditions.","title":"Affordability pressure is visible in separate survey evidence"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA shows a renter-majority and large-multifamily-heavy housing stock, with a 22.9% vacancy rate. Yet a substantial portion of vacant homes were seasonal, and the for-rent vacancy count is a survey classification rather than live inventory. Current availability, effective rent, condition, and lease concessions require property-specific verification.","title":"Stock and vacancy data do not equal current rental supply"}],"risks":["The Zillow reading is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, so a particular property’s condition, lease term, utility treatment, concessions, and availability may diverge materially from the published benchmark.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates for occupied homes, include selected utilities in gross rent, and cannot be read as live asking rents or current applicant affordability outcomes.","Seasonal vacancy and for-rent vacancy classifications do not prove present long-term rental availability, pricing pressure, or leasing conditions for any individual building or unit.","The sold-price-to-annualized-rent screen combines separate resale and asking-rent sources, contains no operating expenses or financing assumptions, and must not be interpreted as a property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current-style ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, utility treatment, and rent concepts can produce a substantial gap without either source being incorrect.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates, created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease transactions, or active-listing averages. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, so the model translates relative bedroom spacing rather than observing actual rents by unit size.","q":"How were the bedroom rent figures created?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by 30% of income, producing the household income amount that corresponds mathematically to that threshold. It is not financial advice, a recommended budget, an underwriting standard, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic is also an area-wide survey result, not evidence about a particular household or available home.","q":"What does the 30% income screen show?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP figures describe for-sale transactions and resale liquidity, including sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. They are not rental transactions or rental comparables. Comparing annualized ZORI with median sold price can flag a cross-source tension, but it cannot establish property economics, operating costs, future performance, or a return measure.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1481.979451},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1511.645159},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1531.211868},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1542.216336},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1539.973041},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1539.01843},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1556.130788},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1566.494039},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1564.324019},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1557.146142},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1569.474512},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1579.946459},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1595.704284},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1580.166032},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1582.554193},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1579.359318},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1580.816561},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1579.063429},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1574.708331},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1580.166286},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1582.584774},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1583.009257},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1583.084552},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1581.579711},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1571.589313},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1577.582952},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1573.750331},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1577.118415},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1573.965441},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1583.765424},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1592.59709},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1589.2985},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1601.439231},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1600.581679},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1604.571968},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1597.223281},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1605.573062},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1599.718446},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1600.541513},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1594.205732},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1605.387169},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1604.153552},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1610.12318},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1611.344888},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1609.973481},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1610.25177},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1601.561207},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1604.894305},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1607.121059},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1623.983687},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1628.858769},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1637.167327},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1634.669989},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1636.08395},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1632.637169},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1637.041739},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1637.238061},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1643.069469},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1653.063105},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1659.628963},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1660.933145},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1655.451651},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1656.565164},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1650.719816},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1639.65806},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1634.595191},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1627.266741},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1630.187578},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1639.146158},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1644.186148},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1651.292602},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1670.857662},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1709.886929},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1734.693372},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1750.592748},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1772.525952},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1830.030826},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1888.263169},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1960.936674},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2020.170295},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2074.755973},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2146.004875},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2210.865652},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2255.761579},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2256.113041},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2292.437379},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2365.8827},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2446.748677},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2479.016702},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2497.616845},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2500.006499},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2511.678311},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2513.751463},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2518.163395},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2523.311627},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2546.41534},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2556.362882},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2561.478894},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2557.861999},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2546.737722},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2538.500892},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2526.02386},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2528.618658},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2527.696569},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2540.440805},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2526.999976},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2517.177834},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2491.717261},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2516.453218},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2527.14287},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2526.079727},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2514.923533},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2508.474787},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2527.217608},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2532.046931},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2540.304464},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2553.693394},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2552.481634},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2568.791625},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2567.0757},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2577.028059},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2572.593391},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2568.123267},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2546.34356},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2536.737182},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2552.582475},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2552.274076},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2550.149008},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2540.07516},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2552.356448},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2550.322439},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2566.915055},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2555.610645},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2562.452837},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2576.396848},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2610.515047},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2635.779939},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2631.784923}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2552.582475,"endRent":2631.784923,"change":0.031028360014106804,"cagr":0.031028360014106804},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2526.02386,"endRent":2631.784923,"change":0.04186859224678918,"cagr":0.01376582981244212},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1888.263169,"endRent":2631.784923,"change":0.39375960205470717,"cagr":0.06865512897035919}},"maxDrawdown":-0.027234904477803634,"annualizedVolatility":0.03276312502149739,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}