At $2,446 in June 2026, Zillow ZORI for 33193 was 1.58% below its same-month prior reading, putting the current signal in a cooling category. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level, typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a quote for a particular available home nor a measure of occupied-tenant payments. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the match supports comparison while preserving a boundary and universe distinction.
The cooling label is recent rather than the whole record. The one-year same-month change is the decline reported above; equivalent annualized same-month changes were 0.22% over three years and 6.71% over five years. Thus recent direction breaks from the stronger long path while also extending an almost flat medium path. This direct Zillow ZIP history has 100% coverage across 138 monthly observations and 137 consecutive returns. Monthly ZORI returns showed 3.29% annualized variability, so the record supports only moderate confidence in a single current snapshot. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough historical drawdown was 4.26%, documenting a past retreat rather than predicting another one. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,630 for momentum, 2,032 for stability, and 2,709 for balanced; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Affordability requires another boundary. In the matched ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,851 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That result is not a current asking-rent quote, so its gap from ZORI is not a contradiction. The 30% required-income screen annualizes the current Zillow index and yields $97,840; the ZCTA median household income is $77,839, leaving the same arithmetic at 37.7% of income. This is a household-income comparison, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. It conveys that the current asking-rent index sits above that particular benchmark, while acknowledging the ACS survey's distinct timing, renter occupancy universe, and utility treatment.
Burden and stock reinforce the need not to overread aggregates. The same ACS ZCTA tabulates 3,793 of 6,530 renter households at or above the rent-burden threshold, a 58.1% share. That is evidence on surveyed households in aggregate, not proof that a particular unit or resident is burdened. Within 16,274 total housing units, the total-housing vacancy rate was 2.8%. The stock includes 9,838 single-family units as well as large-multifamily structures. These five-year survey counts describe housing composition and vacant classifications, not real-time advertised rental availability or a guarantee of choice at a specific property.
Bedroom comparison works differently again. The modelled monthly ZIP estimates, scaled from ZORI through the local HUD ladder, are $1,875 for a studio, $1,993 for one bedroom, $2,446 for two bedrooms, $3,278 for three bedrooms, and $3,788 for four bedrooms. Their purpose is consistent scaling, not observation: they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 ladder's two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,333. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, whether its local application is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. Consequently, neither the HUD amounts nor the scaled ladder should be treated as lease comparables or evidence of an individual listing's rent.
Broader geography points in a different direction but remains context only. For wider context, the City of Miami context rent is $3,004, the Miami-Dade County context rent is $2,886, and the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL metro context rent is $2,695. Each is above the ZIP ZORI, yet none is a ZIP rent-index observation, a ZCTA household survey result, or a bedroom-specific HUD standard. The comparison establishes scope-separated context rather than a substitutable market quote. It also cannot resolve the mismatch between the current asking-rent index, occupied-home gross rent, and the income arithmetic inside the ZIP.
For-sale evidence adds a material counterpoint. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, which is about for-sale transactions rather than rentals, has a $512,384 median sold price, up 0.47% year over year. It recorded 86 homes sold, 63 median days on market, a 134-home inventory, and 4.7 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were also measured in that resale universe: average sale-to-list was 97.71%, and 19.07% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.73%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level economic measure. The modest resale price gain confirms that the resale median rose as ZORI cooled, while the marketing time and below-list average challenge a simple reading of immediate strength from the rent-history and income screens. This tension does not establish causation between the resale and rental series.
No source here observes the exact same unit through asking, occupancy, HUD standard, and resale. Concrete property-level checks are to identify the actual bedroom count and property type; separate advertised base rent from included utilities and fees; confirm lease term, availability, and listing terms; and distinguish a comparable sale from the ZIP resale median. The applicable local HUD ladder also needs confirmation rather than an assumption that it is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. Those checks preserve the limits of each series: ZORI is an index, ACS is a survey, HUD is a standard, and Redfin is a resale observation. The unresolved property-level question is whether a real unit's terms and a sold home's attributes align with these area-level screens.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index and its 1.58% same-month decline is the immediate signal. History remains mixed rather than uniformly weak: the three-year annualized change is nearly flat and the five-year change is positive. Full historical coverage and the rank information make the backward-looking record interpretable, but they do not turn it into a forecast.","title":"Cooling interrupts the longer rent path"},{"body":"ACS ZCTA median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI, by contrast, is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. Their difference can reflect scope, timing, and utility treatment rather than a contradiction. The required-income calculation uses the ZORI amount and household income only as a 30% arithmetic screen, never as a qualification decision.","title":"Current asking rent and ACS gross rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates generated by scaling the current ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards, and neither those standards nor the scaled outputs are measured bedroom rents. A unit's advertised price, bedroom designation, and terms can depart from either series.","title":"The bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP measure reports for-sale and resale activity, including median sold price, sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental evidence. A positive resale price change can coexist with a declining asking-rent index, while observed marketing time and below-list average pricing prevent either series from serving as a simple confirmation of the other.","title":"Resale data creates a separate market tension"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP-level index rather than an advertised rent for a defined unit, so it may not capture property type, bedroom count, lease terms, included utilities, fees, or immediate availability at a specific address.","ACS measures occupied renter homes in a 2024 five-year survey and includes selected utilities, while ZORI measures observed asking rents. Treating the gap as a market change without reconciling timing, occupancy, and scope would mix distinct evidence universes.","Burden and total vacancy are aggregate ZCTA measures, with survey uncertainty and classifications that do not identify a particular household or unit. The for-rent vacancy count is not a real-time inventory of listings or lease-ready homes.","Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP evidence concerns resale transactions. Its sale prices, days on market, inventory, and list-price signals cannot establish rental performance or property-level economics, and the rent-to-price calculation remains only a cross-source screening ratio."],"qa":[{"a":"In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $2,446 and was 1.58% below the same month a year earlier. It is categorized as cooling. This measure summarizes typical observed ZIP asking rents across rental types; it is not a current quote for a specific dwelling or a survey measure of tenant-paid rent.","q":"What is the current asking-rent signal in 33193?"},{"a":"The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent of $1,851 describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it therefore is not the same universe as Zillow's current asking-rent index. Applying 30% to annualized ZORI produces the $97,840 required-income screen. Compared with the $77,839 median household income, the 37.7% result is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Why does the ACS rent differ, and how is the income screen used?"},{"a":"No. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They take ZIP ZORI as a base and scale it by the local FY2026 HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking-rent evidence, so the resulting estimates do not measure rents for units that actually leased or were listed.","q":"Are the bedroom values observed rents?"},{"a":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation is limited to for-sale and resale transactions. Its $512,384 median sold price, 86 homes sold, 63 days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list figures describe that sales universe. Annualized ZORI divided by price is a 5.73% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not describe a rental transaction, a specific property, or property-level economics.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add to the rent analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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