In ZIP 33602, Zillow’s current ZORI is $2,679 per month, down 0.9% from the comparable month a year earlier. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one available home or an all-in household cost. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and its Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area created for tabulation; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The immediate signal is mild cooling at a rent level that remains distinct from wider-area context, so the interpretive issue is whether the recent dip merely interrupts, or overturns, the longer rent path.
Backward-looking ZORI history shows exact same-month changes of -0.9% over 1 year, +0.9% annualized over 3 years, and +4.3% annualized over 5 years. The negative recent result breaks from both longer positive paths, although it does not erase them. The series has complete coverage across 122 observations, making its recorded path rather than a sparse sequence available for review. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.2% means a single current index reading deserves measured confidence, not undue precision; it has moved month to month. Its largest peak-to-trough setback was 3.7%, which frames the scale of historical reversals. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,456 for momentum, 1,863 for stability, and 2,564 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom interpretation should not turn ZORI into measurements it is not. Scaling the ZIP index by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,156 for a studio, $2,300 for one bedroom, $2,679 for two bedrooms, $3,428 for three bedrooms, and $4,167 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; each inherits both the blended ZORI level and HUD’s relative bedroom pattern. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. Thus the ladder is useful for consistent size comparison, but lease terms, unit condition, and actual availability can depart from it.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS five-year median gross rent is $2,270, with a $73 margin of error, for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities. That survey measure is 18.0% below current ZORI, a gap consistent with different populations and definitions, not a contradiction or a rent forecast. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the asking index yields $107,160 of required annual household income. The ZCTA median household income is $97,320, and the screen equals 33.0% of that median before any unit-specific utilities or fees. This arithmetic is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 3,818 of 8,684 renter households, or 44.0%, report spending at least 30% of income on rent in ACS; that describes surveyed households, not the burden of a particular prospective lease.
Stock counts point to a renter-heavy, multifamily-weighted area without establishing conditions at any individual building. Of 13,017 housing units, the area-wide vacancy rate is 8.5%, the renter share is 72.9%, and large multifamily structures account for 74.6% of the stock; 427 vacant units are classified as for rent. Those aggregates indicate the composition of the ZCTA housing base, but neither vacancy nor burden proves a concession, availability, or payment stress for a particular unit. For wider context, Tampa city’s city-scope Zillow rent is $1,999, Hillsborough County’s county-scope index is $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro-scope index is $2,020; each is below the ZIP index. These city, county, and metro figures are context only, not replacements for direct ZIP evidence.
On the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, Redfin reports a median sold price of $617,860, down 8.1% year over year. It also records 102 homes sold, a median 62 days on market, inventory of 178 homes, and 5.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio is 97.2%, 3.0% of sales closed above list, and 22.6% went off market within two weeks. These are ZIP for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The resale decline confirms the current cooling direction seen in asking rent, while the longer positive rent history complicates any one-direction reading. The rapid-outcome share and below-list average sale describe the resale observation’s terms, but they do not establish the condition, financing, or leasing position of any specific property.
Annualizing the current ZIP ZORI and dividing it by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 5.2% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because it lacks property expenses, financing, vacancy experience, and unit matching. The key tension is temporal and cross-universe: the longer rent record and ZIP rent premium relative to the wider contexts can support a high current rent snapshot, yet the most recent rent movement and resale price change both point downward. The divergence between a blended asking index and sales of heterogeneous properties prevents that screen from resolving property economics. It is a compact comparison, not an outcome estimate.
Several limits remain central. ZORI covers a blended asking-rent market, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes over five years, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; their dates, units, and inclusion rules differ. ACS sampling uncertainty also applies to household and burden estimates. A property-level file would need the exact bedroom count, unit type, interior size, lease duration, utilities included, recurring fees, concessions, current availability, and comparable asking terms. For a sale, it would also need condition, list-price history, transaction details, and genuinely comparable closed properties. Which of those unit-level facts would most change the interpretation of the ZIP-wide cooling and affordability signals?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP ZORI declined 0.9% over one year even though exact same-month annualized changes remain positive across three and five years. Full series coverage supports use of the historical path, but measured monthly variability and the observed drawdown mean a current index value should be read as a broad market signal rather than a fixed lease quote.","title":"Recent rent direction breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"Current ZORI is higher than ACS median gross rent because the sources cover different universes. ZORI is a typical asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference is informative for definition and timing, but it does not establish a market forecast or a particular unit’s rent.","title":"Asking rent and ACS gross rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a high renter share and a large multifamily concentration, alongside an area-wide vacancy rate and a separate count of units classified as vacant for rent. These are housing-base aggregates. They help describe the ZIP’s rental setting, but they cannot demonstrate availability, concessions, occupancy conditions, or affordability at any individual property.","title":"Area composition is renter-heavy and multifamily-led"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year median sold-price decline, marketing time, supply, and mostly below-list average sales. That direction aligns with the recent ZORI decline, while the longer rent record remains positive. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screen because sale prices and blended asking rents are not matched properties.","title":"Resale evidence confirms cooling but cannot price rental economics"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index rather than a unit-specific quote, so differences in bedroom count, condition, lease duration, concessions, utilities, and recurring fees can materially change a property-level comparison.","ACS values are matched-ZCTA five-year survey estimates for occupied homes, include selected utilities in gross rent, and carry sampling uncertainty; they should not be treated as contemporaneous asking-rent evidence.","The HUD-based bedroom ladder provides modelled estimates by scaling the ZIP index, not observed bedroom rents. A building’s actual mix, availability, and lease terms may differ substantially from the standardized pattern.","Redfin’s ZIP resale figures describe for-sale transactions over a rolling period, not rental transactions. The rent-price screen omits expenses, financing, property matching, and operating conditions required for property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The lower ACS figure therefore reflects different timing, populations, and rent definitions. It is not evidence that a particular available unit should rent at the ACS median.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the current Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The screen divides the current annualized asking-rent index by 30%, producing an arithmetic household-income figure. It is useful for comparing the ZIP index with the ZCTA median household income and reported rent-burden share. It is not financial advice, a leasing standard, or an applicant qualification rule, and it excludes property-specific fees and utility arrangements.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean here?"},{"a":"It does not directly measure rental demand. Redfin’s ZIP observation reports for-sale outcomes, including sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Its recent price direction can be compared with the ZORI trend as a broad market tension, but it cannot substitute for rental listings, lease transactions, or matched rental comparables.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block say about rental demand?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the blended Zillow ZORI. They provide a standardized relative size framework from studio through four bedrooms, but they are not measured bedroom rents. Actual rents can differ because of unit size, condition, location within the ZIP, lease timing, concessions, utilities, and fees.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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