ZIP 33604 presents a current-rent versus income tension before any property-specific conclusion is drawn. Zillow ZORI was $1,588 in 2026-06; it is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease quote for a particular home. Wider context only: Tampa city’s context rent was $1,999, Hillsborough County’s context rent was $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro context rent was $2,020. The ZIP’s asking-rent-to-median-income screen was 32.4%. At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen, that asking rent implies $63,520 of annual income, above the local median household income of $58,766. This is arithmetic rather than advice, and it is not an applicant qualification rule.
The recent rent direction breaks from the longer backward-looking path. Exact same-month ZORI change was -0.1% over one year, versus annualized gains of 1.6% over three years and 6.0% over five years. The history has complete 100% coverage across 138 observations, supporting the continuity of the measurement rather than a forecast. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.2%, so a single current index reading deserves measured confidence rather than being treated as a fixed rent level. The maximum drawdown was 1.9%, indicating the largest peak-to-trough decline observed in this record. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,171 for momentum, 1,897 for stability, and 2,420 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are descriptive discovery tools, not investment recommendations.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA had median gross rent of $1,412, with an $82 margin of error; this measure includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent measure. ZIP ZORI was 12.5% above that gross-rent median. The difference is informative about distinct evidence universes, including timing, occupied homes versus advertised supply, and utility treatment, rather than proof that any given unit is priced above or below its market.
Bedroom figures should be used as a modelled allocation of the ZIP index, not as measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,280 for a studio, $1,364 for one bedroom, $1,588 for two bedrooms, $2,029 for three bedrooms, and $2,469 for four bedrooms. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,910. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent; it provides the ladder used in the model, not observed lease comparables. Actual advertised rents can differ with unit condition, included utilities, concessions, lease term, and property-specific features.
The matched ZCTA had 40,055 residents, 17,409 housing units, and 1,570 vacant units, a 9.0% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy totaled 6,969 households, representing a 44.0% renter share. Among those renter households, 4,269 were recorded as spending at least thirty percent of income on rent, or 61.3%. These ACS estimates describe surveyed occupied households over a multi-year period; they do not establish current availability, vacancy at a particular building, or the rent burden of a prospective tenant. Still, the burden share and the current income screen both make affordability an important counterweight to the ZIP’s longer rent-growth history.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation is a separate for-sale-market record, not rental transaction evidence. Median sold price was $379,414, up 0.5% year over year, with 183 homes sold and a median 49 days on market. Reported inventory was 180 homes alongside 393 active listings, and months of supply stood at 3.0. Sale-to-list signals were less than full-price on average: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.9%, while 13.5% of sales closed above list. This resale evidence modestly challenges a simple rent-strength reading: sales pricing edged upward while the latest asking-rent index was slightly lower year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price was 5.0%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
Viewed together, the evidence does not form one unified housing-market measurement. Zillow measures a blended asking-rent index; ACS measures occupied renter households and gross rent with selected utilities; HUD sets administrative bedroom standards; and Redfin records ZIP resale outcomes. The city, county, and metro values are wider context, not substitutes for ZIP observations. The central tension is therefore clear but bounded: current asking-rent pressure against local income and reported renter burden sits beside a long historical expansion that has recently cooled, while resale pricing shows only a small positive annual change. None of these relationships identifies a cause or determines an outcome for a specific property.
Before applying these screens to a home, verify the address geography, the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, and whether the unit is presently available. Compare the property’s condition and asking terms with current directly relevant listings rather than treating the modelled bedroom ladder as a quote. For a resale candidate, review property-specific sale history, list-price changes, inspection-related condition, and carrying costs separately from the ZIP screening ratio. For a rental decision, confirm income definitions and tenant-specific expenses rather than inferring affordability from area medians. Which property-level documents would most materially change the interpretation of this ZIP-level evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index sits below the named city, county, and metro rent-context figures, yet the local rent-to-income arithmetic still exceeds a thirty-percent screen. The required-income calculation is above the area median household income. That combination makes local income alignment more decision-relevant than the apparent discount to wider rent context, while remaining an area-level screen rather than a tenant assessment.","title":"Current asking-rent pressure exceeds the median-income screen"},{"body":"The exact same-month history shows a slight latest annual decline following positive annualized three-year and five-year changes. Full historical coverage supports reading the series as a continuous backward-looking measurement. Monthly variability and the observed drawdown mean that one current ZORI print should not be overinterpreted, particularly when recent direction differs from the longer path. The discovery ranks are comparative history tools, not forecasts.","title":"Cooling is recent, while the longer historical record remained positive"},{"body":"ACS gross rent describes occupied renter homes in a matched statistical area and includes selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI describes a blended asking-rent index. HUD provides an administrative bedroom standard rather than an advertised-rent observation. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for a consistent screen, but cannot replace property-level advertised rents, utility terms, concessions, or condition comparisons.","title":"Gross rent, asking rent, HUD standards, and bedroom estimates answer different questions"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale record shows a small annual increase in median sold price, measurable transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, and average sale-to-list results below full list price. That evidence belongs solely to the for-sale market. Its modest price increase contrasts with the slightly negative latest asking-rent change, creating a cross-market tension. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a screening ratio and says nothing about operating expenses, financing, or property returns.","title":"Resale evidence is modestly firmer than the latest rent signal"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index may not match the property type, bedroom count, condition, utility package, lease term, or concession structure of a specific available unit, so direct listing verification remains necessary.","ACS estimates reflect a multi-year survey of occupied households in a ZCTA, not a current census of vacancies or leases, and their margins of error limit precision in comparing close values.","Reported vacancy and rent-burden measures are area-level household statistics. They cannot demonstrate vacancy, affordability, tenant demand, or payment capacity for any specific building or prospective renter.","The resale indicators describe completed and listed for-sale homes during a rolling observation window. They are not rental comparables, and the rent-to-price screen excludes expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, and property condition."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, housing mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment can all produce a gap without indicating an error.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure higher than the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, created by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI figure using the relative local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks rather than asking-rent observations. A unit’s actual price may differ materially because of its condition, included utilities, lease terms, concessions, availability date, and other property-specific factors.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for studios through larger homes?"},{"a":"It means the latest same-month annual movement is slightly negative even though the longer same-month annualized comparisons remain positive. That is a backward-looking change in direction, not a prediction. The history’s monthly variability and drawdown support treating the current index as one measured point in an evolving series, rather than assuming the longer growth rate will continue.","q":"What does the historical cooling signal mean for interpreting the current rent index?"},{"a":"No. The figure is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price, combining separate rent and resale sources for a broad screening comparison. It does not include acquisition costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, management, financing, renovation needs, or the actual rent and sale price of a particular property. It is not a cap rate or return estimate.","q":"Can the ZIP rent-to-price screen be used to estimate a property investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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