ZIP 33605’s June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index is $1,920 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote for a particular dwelling. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, that index converts arithmetically to $76,800 in annual income, versus matched-area median household income of $36,975; the resulting 62.3% asking-rent-to-income comparison is a screen, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS median gross rent is $1,135, materially lower because it is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, not a current asking-rent measure.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled, not measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder produces estimates of $1,545 for a studio, $1,651 for one bedroom, $1,920 for two bedrooms, $2,459 for three bedrooms, and $2,985 for four bedrooms. The local HUD ladder supplies the relative bedroom structure behind those estimates, but HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Consequently, these figures should not be treated as observed rents for available units, nor as evidence that any listed unit will follow the same bedroom pattern.
The recent rent direction remains positive but is markedly slower than the longer historical path. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 2.1% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 7.5% over five years. Thus, the latest movement does not reverse the longer increase, but it breaks from its earlier pace. Monthly rent-change variability annualized to 3.7%, which limits confidence in treating a single current index reading as a stable point estimate. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 2.9%, showing that prior declines occurred even within the broader rise. Coverage is 99.3%; the momentum, stability, and balanced discovery ranks are 1,101, 2,382, and 1,830 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are transparent backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The demographic and stock evidence belongs to the matched Census geography, not necessarily to a USPS delivery boundary. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS five-year survey, the ZCTA has 8,943 housing units and 4,429 renter-occupied households, making renters 59.8% of occupied homes. It also records 1,536 vacant units, a 17.2% housing-unit vacancy rate. Of those vacancies, 295 were classified for rent, 98 for sale, and 267 seasonal. Those aggregate classifications describe the survey area’s stock, not the condition, price, or availability of a particular unit.
Wider-geography rent context places the ZIP below each supplied benchmark: Tampa city context has an asking-rent reading of $1,999, Hillsborough County context is $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro context is $2,020. Each is a broader geographic comparison rather than a substitute for the ZIP-level ZORI reading. The gap does not establish a cause, a neighborhood distinction, or an individual-unit bargain; it simply places the ZIP’s current asking-rent index against named city, county, and metro contexts that use different geographic scopes.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale-market record, not rental transaction evidence. Median sold price was $307,431, down 0.83% year over year, with 62 homes sold and a median 33 days on market. Inventory was 100 homes and months of supply stood at 4.9. The average sale-to-list ratio was 95.13%; 10.01% of sales closed above list, while 30.56% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the resale median price creates a 7.49% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The softer resale price signal and fuller supply sit beside still-positive rent history and a high income screen, challenging any simple reading of one rent snapshot as a complete market assessment.
Rent burden adds a separate occupied-household perspective. Within the ACS renter-household universe, 57.8% reported gross rent burdens at or above 30%. That share is based on surveyed occupied renter homes and gross rent, whereas the required-income calculation uses a current Zillow asking-rent index; neither measurement proves what a future tenant would pay. Similarly, the burden statistic cannot establish whether a particular vacant unit is affordable, and the vacancy count cannot establish whether that unit is habitable, available now, or offered at the ZORI level.
The evidence therefore supports a bounded reading rather than a unit-level conclusion: Zillow supplies a blended asking-rent index, ACS supplies survey-based occupied-household conditions, HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder, and Redfin supplies direct ZIP resale observations. Property-level evaluation would still need the actual listing rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility treatment, concessions, availability status, and applicable sale comparables. It would also need confirmation that the address is inside the relevant delivery area and that its physical attributes resemble the evidence being used. Does the specific property’s documented rent and condition fit the appropriate source universe, rather than merely resembling an area-level statistic?
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,920 monthly, while the supplied median household income is $36,975. Applying a 30% income share mechanically produces a required annual income of $76,800. This is an arithmetic comparison between an asking-rent index and area income, not an affordability determination, applicant standard, or statement about any household’s actual rent.","title":"Asking-rent screen is high relative to area income"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth measured 2.1% over one year, compared with 3.6% over three years and 7.5% over five years. The sequence indicates continuing positive history with a slower recent pace. Annualized monthly variability of 3.7% and a historical 2.9% maximum drawdown mean the current rent index should be read as a point-in-time indicator rather than a fixed trajectory.","title":"Growth has decelerated from the longer historical rate"},{"body":"In the matched ACS ZCTA, renters represent 59.8% of occupied households and 57.8% of renter households reported gross rent burdens of at least 30%. The ZCTA also has a 17.2% housing-unit vacancy rate. These are five-year survey aggregates for a statistical area, not observations of a particular USPS ZIP delivery area, building, household, or available rental.","title":"Renter concentration and burden are ACS-area measurements"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a $307,431 median sold price, 4.9 months of supply, and a 95.13% average sale-to-list ratio. Annualized ZORI divided by that price is a 7.49% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or substitute for unit-level operating costs and transaction details.","title":"Resale evidence does not convert rent index into property economics"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types, so it does not confirm the asking price, lease structure, concession treatment, utility obligations, or availability of any particular dwelling.","ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, with a statistical geography that differs from a USPS delivery ZIP and may not match a property’s precise market area.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregate classifications of surveyed housing stock and occupied renter households; neither measure proves affordability, condition, eligibility, or availability for a specific unit.","The Redfin resale record concerns for-sale transactions and listing outcomes. Combining its median price with annualized ZORI omits property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, condition, and operating information."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures describe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A sitting household’s reported gross rent is therefore not expected to match a current asking-rent index.","q":"Why is Zillow rent much higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The results provide a consistent modelled structure but do not measure rents for listed, leased, or recently transacted homes.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"History shows positive same-month growth across one-, three-, and five-year intervals, but the most recent rate is slower than the longer-term rates. Annualized monthly variability and prior drawdown indicate that the index has not moved in a perfectly smooth path. The current reading is useful as a dated observation, but historical measures do not forecast future rents.","q":"What does the rent history say about the reliability of the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"The Redfin block should be used only to describe the direct ZIP for-sale market: sold prices, marketing time, supply, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental evidence. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price can flag a cross-source relationship for screening, but it cannot establish property yield, investment performance, costs, or expected returns.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — 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