ZIP 33606 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for the ZIP was $2,380 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease quote for one property. That level sits above the Tampa city context rent of $1,999, the Hillsborough County context rent of $2,025, and the Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater metro context rent of $2,020; each comparison is wider-geography context, not a substitute for ZIP-level evidence.
The backward-looking rent path is notably slower at its recent endpoint than over longer windows. The exact same-month one-year change was 0.8%, versus a three-year annualized change of 1.7% and a five-year annualized change of 5.3%. Thus, the current direction breaks from the faster long-run path rather than confirming it. Monthly changes produced 3.2% annualized variability, so one current ZORI observation should be treated as a useful benchmark but not an unusually precise lease-level estimate. Separately, the largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 1.4%, a limited historical retreat rather than evidence about future conditions. History coverage is 100% across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,902 for momentum, 1,855 for stability, and 2,199 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks place higher; these are descriptive discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $2,100, with a $125 margin of error. This is not the same universe as Zillow ZORI: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. The asking-rent index is therefore 13.3% above the ACS median, a difference consistent with distinct timing, population, and utility treatment rather than proof that any given available unit commands that spread. The ACS estimate is best used as resident-cost context, not as a current asking-rent comparable.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder, producing monthly estimates of $1,916 for a studio, $2,045 for one bedroom, $2,380 for two bedrooms, $3,042 for three bedrooms, and $3,703 for four bedrooms. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR standards run from $2,230 for a studio to $4,310 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The current ZIP ZORI equals 85.9% of the local two-bedroom HUD standard, but that relationship does not convert the modelled ladder into observed rents for particular listings.
The income screen is comparatively less strained when calculated against the ZIP’s broad household-income statistic, but its limits matter. Median household income in the ACS ZCTA is $120,729, with a $10,377 margin of error. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the $2,380 ZORI implies $95,200 in annual income; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The asking-rent-to-median-household-income ratio is 23.7%, yet renter households can differ materially from the full household-income population. ACS also identifies 2,585 of 5,546 renter households, or 46.6%, as spending 30% or more of income on rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households and cannot establish affordability or payment pressure for a particular unit or applicant.
Housing-stock evidence adds a separate availability caution. The ZCTA contains 11,406 housing units, of which 9,885 are occupied and 1,521 are vacant; the renter share is 56.1%. Its stock includes 4,561 single-family units and 4,433 units in large multifamily structures, showing that the ZIP’s aggregate rental context spans more than one structure type. The reported vacancy rate is 13.3%, and vacant classifications include units designated for rent, sale, and seasonal use. Consequently, the aggregate vacancy figure is not evidence that a specific rental is available, appropriately priced, comparable in condition, or likely to offer concessions.
For resale liquidity, Redfin provides direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale evidence, not rental transactions. The median sold price was $798,819, down 1.1% year over year, with 83 homes sold and a median 41 days on market. Inventory was 101 homes and months of supply stood at 3.7. Sale-to-list signals were restrained: the average sale-to-list ratio was 95.4%, while 7.4% of sales closed above list. These are ZIP resale observations only. They describe sold homes, listing exposure, and market timing; they do not provide rental comps, landlord operating results, or a valuation for a specific property.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 3.6% cross-source screening ratio. It must not be read as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The central tension is that the long rent history remains positive while recent asking-rent growth has slowed sharply, and the resale evidence shows a modest price decline plus below-list sale signals despite limited measured supply. Before relying on any ZIP-level screen, check property-level asking-rent comparables by date, bedroom count, structure type, included utilities, condition, and lease terms; separately verify sale comparables, listing status, marketing time, and whether any vacancy classification is actually relevant to the property being evaluated.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP asking rent was still slightly higher year over year, but the one-year change lagged both the three-year and five-year annualized measures. That pattern makes the current reading less supportive of a simple continuation narrative. Moderate historical variability and a small maximum drawdown support use of ZORI as a benchmark, while also limiting confidence in a single snapshot as a lease-level conclusion.","title":"Recent rent growth has decelerated"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a typical asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The ZIP bedroom ladder is modelled by scaling ZORI with HUD relationships, so it should guide relative bedroom sizing only and never be presented as measured bedroom rent.","title":"Rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen using broad ZIP household income is below the 30% threshold, but nearly half of surveyed renter households report spending at least 30% of income on rent. These measures concern different populations and constructions: household median income is not renter income, and burden is not a test of any applicant. Vacancy and housing-stock counts likewise cannot establish availability for one unit.","title":"Aggregate affordability is mixed"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a modest annual price decline, below-list average sale outcomes, and measurable marketing time. Those for-sale signals challenge an overly strong interpretation of the longer rent history, especially as recent ZORI growth has slowed. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio; it omits expenses, financing, property differences, and transaction-specific facts.","title":"Resale evidence complicates the rent screen"}],"risks":["The Zillow ZIP geography and Census ZCTA match are useful for alignment, but a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so addresses and delivery boundaries may not map cleanly to these aggregates.","ZORI blends asking rents across rental types, while ACS reflects occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period with selected utilities included; their difference cannot validate a listing rent or lease outcome.","The reported vacancy rate includes multiple vacant-use categories, including for-rent, for-sale, and seasonal units. It cannot demonstrate that a particular property is vacant, rentable, comparable, or likely to offer concessions.","Redfin resale measures are rolling-three-month for-sale observations and the rent-to-price figure is cross-source arithmetic. Neither measure captures property expenses, financing, taxes, condition, lease terms, or unit-specific demand."],"qa":[{"a":"They observe different populations and use different timing. Zillow ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS figure is also assigned to the matched ZCTA, which is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They are produced by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the resulting estimates should not be treated as measured rents for available units.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for 33606?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that annualizes the ZIP ZORI and calculates the income needed for that amount to equal 30% of gross income. It is not financial advice, a tenant-budget recommendation, or an applicant qualification rule. It also uses an aggregate rent index rather than a particular lease payment, utility package, or renter household income.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It compares annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI with Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price from a rolling-three-month resale observation. It can flag a broad cross-source relationship, but it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Property-specific evaluation would require actual rent evidence, operating costs, transaction details, property condition, and comparable sales.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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