At the June 2026 endpoint, the five-digit label 33610 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $1,844, 4.26% lower than a year earlier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not the price of a named available home. As wider context only, the Tampa city context rent is $1,999, the Hillsborough County context rent is $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro context rent is $2,020. These named city, county, and metro scopes frame this ZIP’s index but are not substitutes for ZIP rental evidence.
Affordability creates a sharper tension than the broader rent comparison, but it requires like-for-unlike discipline. The ACS 2024 5-year matched ZCTA survey puts median gross rent at $1,384 and includes selected utilities; it is a survey of occupied renter homes, not current asking listings. That figure is 33.2% beneath the current index, a source and definition difference rather than an observed price spread for a specific lease. Median household income in the same survey is $54,209. Annualizing the index at a 30% threshold produces required income of $73,760, while the index-to-income arithmetic equals 40.8%. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 57.1% of renter households devote at least that threshold to gross rent, a burden measure that cannot establish affordability or terms for a particular unit.
Bedroom detail should be treated as a translation, not as new observation. The applicable FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,730. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder creates modelled estimates of $1,482 for a studio, $1,578 for one bedroom, $1,844 for two bedrooms, $2,356 for three bedrooms, and $2,867 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate stands 6.6% above the HUD standard. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the ladder cannot reveal unit condition, lease provisions, available supply, or the rent of any individual apartment or house.
The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history changes the reading of the current decline. Exact same-month annualized changes are -4.26% over 1 year, -0.28% over 3 years, and 4.87% over 5 years. The newest drop and nearly flat middle period break from the longer positive path rather than confirming it. Monthly rent-return variability annualizes to 3.93%, making one current snapshot less stable evidence than a smooth history would provide. Separately, maximum drawdown reached 6.36%, showing the depth of the history’s most severe peak-to-trough retreat. Coverage is 99.3%, so continuity is strong but not a claim of certainty. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,812 for momentum, 2,560 for stability, and 2,860 for balanced score; lower ranks are higher. All are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS ZCTA housing base further limits broad inferences. It contains 18,287 housing units; renters account for 48.4% of occupied homes, and the survey vacancy rate is 7.9%. The stock spans single-family and large multifamily structures, yet these aggregate classifications do not say which structures are listed, rentable, or comparable to the ZORI mix. In particular, vacancy is a survey stock condition and cannot prove that a particular unit is available, suitable, or priced at the index. Likewise, renter share says nothing about a tenant’s budget or lease terms. The city, county, and metro context values remain wider-area context, not an alternate count of ZIP stock.
Resale produces an independent but limited counterpoint. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, which describes for-sale activity rather than rental transactions, records a $319,928 median sold price, up 0.93% from a year earlier. It has 103 homes sold, a median 42 days on market, inventory of 151 homes, and 4.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio is 97.0%; 14.0% of sales close above list, and 27.5% go off market within two weeks. Price growth modestly challenges a simple reading that the rent-index decline reflects uniformly weaker housing values, while the marketing time, supply, and below-list average do not indicate uniformly aggressive resale terms. These signals are direct ZIP resale liquidity evidence only; they are not rental comps.
The cross-source pricing screen should remain deliberately narrow. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price equals 6.92%. It is only a cross-source screening ratio because its numerator is a blended asking-rent index and its denominator is the median of sold homes from a different market universe. It does not attach rent to a sold property, identify bedroom or property type, incorporate selected utilities, or describe expenses, financing, or realized transaction results. The modest resale increase does not resolve the local income and burden screen; similarly, the current rent decline alone cannot settle the for-sale reading. The useful conclusion is tension across measures, not a unified property outcome.
Several limits govern a property-level reading. The current ZORI index, the historical series, the ACS five-year survey, the annual HUD standard, and the rolling resale window have different reference populations and timing. No packet measure maps a listing or sale to a particular address. Concrete checks therefore include confirming the address’s ZIP treatment, bedroom count, current advertised rent and observation date, utility inclusions, lease duration, concessions, and actual availability. On the resale side, checks need to identify comparable closed homes’ property type, timing, listing-to-sale terms, and whether they resemble the unit under review. Does the unit’s rent definition and bedroom layout actually align with the broad index and ladder used here?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP index sits below the three named wider-area context rents, but the more important screen is local survey income. At the stated benchmark, annualizing the index produces required income well above the ZCTA median household income. The ACS gross-rent gap is not a discount calculation because ACS observes occupied homes with selected utilities while Zillow tracks blended asking rents.","title":"Income screen is tighter than broader rent context"},{"body":"The newest annualized same-month result is negative, whereas the five-year change remains positive. High monthly variation, a distinct peak-to-trough loss, and near-complete history coverage mean the recent movement is documented but not predictive. The national discovery ranks aid comparison among eligible ZIP histories; they do not score a property or establish a future rent path.","title":"Recent rent direction breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates produced by applying local HUD bedroom relationships to ZIP ZORI. They keep bedroom differences explicit, but neither the HUD administrative standard nor its scaled outputs measures an observed asking rent for a bedroom category. Lease terms, utility treatment, condition, and availability remain unobserved in this translation.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP figures are a rolling resale observation. Slight median price growth alongside longer marketing time and below-list average transactions offers a counterpoint to falling ZORI, but it does not connect a sold home to a rental listing. The rent-price percentage is therefore only a cross-source screen and cannot represent property-specific economics, transaction costs, or operating results.","title":"Resale prices held modestly while rent and sale terms were mixed"}],"risks":["The Zillow index, ACS survey, HUD ladder, and Redfin resale observation use different populations, definitions, timing, and unit mixes, so their numerical gaps cannot be read as matched-property spreads.","The income and burden figures describe a statistical ZCTA survey with uncertainty and households already occupying homes; neither statistic determines an applicant’s income, lease eligibility, or a unit’s actual utility bill.","High variability and the historical drawdown show that a single index value can move materially through time; complete coverage improves record continuity but does not eliminate index-level uncertainty.","Resale inventory, days on market, and sale-to-list signals describe homes offered and sold, not rental transactions; aggregate liquidity cannot verify rentability, condition, or terms for any address."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a Zillow ZIP asking-rent index that blends rental types, while ACS reports a five-year median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They differ in observation population, definition, and timing. The shared geography is only a match: the ZCTA is statistical and is not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom outputs are calculated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, and ZORI blends rental types. The resulting figures maintain a consistent relative bedroom pattern, but they do not observe advertisements or completed leases in any bedroom class and cannot substitute for unit-specific terms.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"Redfin supplies direct ZIP for-sale evidence on sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can show that resale conditions are not moving in lockstep with the asking-rent index, but it does not report rental transactions. A median sold home is not automatically comparable with the rental types blended into ZORI.","q":"How should the Redfin resale signals be interpreted alongside rent data?"},{"a":"Match the address to the applicable ZIP treatment, confirm bedroom count, current advertised rent, observation date, utility inclusions, lease duration, concessions, and actual availability. For the resale context, identify comparable closed homes’ property type, timing, and listing-to-sale terms. These checks test applicability because the packet does not provide unit-level answers.","q":"What property-level checks are needed before applying these ZIP measures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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